New York held for the Democratic candidate in 2024, as it has in every presidential election since 1988, but it moved hard toward Donald Trump along the way — from D+23.1 in 2020 to D+12.6, a 10.5-point swing in the margin and one of the largest of any state the Democrats still carried. The shift ran through New York City. The Bronx, the most Democratic of the five boroughs, went from D+67.5 in 2020 to D+45.1 in 2024, a 22.4-point move — the sharpest of any county in the state. Brooklyn and Queens followed close behind.
The move tracked the city's immigrant geography. Queens — where Hispanic, Asian, and Caribbean neighborhoods sit side by side — fell from D+45.2 to D+24.2, and Brooklyn from D+54.8 to D+43.3, part of a national shift among Latino and immigrant voters. Statewide, New York is 19.8 percent Hispanic or Latino, led by Puerto Rican and Dominican residents, and 9 percent Asian; nearly a third of households speak a language other than English at home, fifth-highest of any state. Manhattan stayed the bluest ground in New York at D+64.2, and Tompkins County, around Ithaca, ran D+50.0.
Beyond the city, the lines held their old shape. Long Island moved with the city and crossed over: Nassau County flipped from D+9.5 to R+4.2, and Suffolk widened from even to R+9.9. Upstate runs Republican between the cities — Wyoming County, the reddest in the state at R+48.2, anchors the rural west — but the metros stayed Democratic: Albany at D+25.6, Onondaga around Syracuse at D+17.2, Monroe around Rochester at D+19.0, and Erie around Buffalo at D+9.6. The 2026 race for governor turns on the same ground: Kathy Hochul against Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, who runs the county that just flipped.