HarrisDemocratic44.0%6,610TrumpRepublican55.7%8,379OtherAll other candidates0.3%45
R+11.8- Lead
- 1,769
- Total
- 15,034
- vs nation
- R+10.3
- Turnout
- 63.6%
Akashiccounty
Seneca County, NY
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
President results by year
2024 turnout 63.6% of 25,878 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic44.3%6,914TrumpRepublican53.4%8,329JorgensenLibertarian1.2%193
R+9.1- Lead
- 1,415
- Total
- 15,608
- vs nation
- R+13.5
- Turnout
- 58.2%
ClintonDemocratic40.8%5,697TrumpRepublican51.8%7,236JohnsonLibertarian4.6%638
R+11.0- Lead
- 1,539
- Total
- 13,980
- vs nation
- R+13.1
- Turnout
- 50.9%
ObamaDemocratic53.5%7,094RomneyRepublican44.4%5,889JohnsonLibertarian0.8%110
D+9.1- Lead
- 1,205
- Total
- 13,266
- vs nation
- D+5.2
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic50.3%7,422McCainRepublican47.7%7,038OtherAll other candidates1.9%281
D+2.6- Lead
- 384
- Total
- 14,741
- vs nation
- R+4.7
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic45.5%6,979BushRepublican52.1%7,981OtherAll other candidates2.4%365
R+6.5- Lead
- 1,002
- Total
- 15,325
- vs nation
- R+4.1
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic47.7%6,841BushRepublican47.0%6,734NaderGreen3.9%560
D+0.7- Lead
- 107
- Total
- 14,338
- vs nation
- D+0.2
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic48.9%6,825DoleRepublican35.9%5,004PerotReform13.5%1,889
D+13.0- Lead
- 1,821
- Total
- 13,955
- vs nation
- D+4.5
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+11.8MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 32,9202024 5-year
- Median household income
- $68,0892024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 87.3%2024 5-year
- Black
- 3.5%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 4.4%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+33.0 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+49.0 in 1924MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Cayuga County, NY · twin score 93.4
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 63.6%16,465 participants ÷ 25,878 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +14.3 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- -7.5 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 49.4%–53.6%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 14,090 | 27,669 | 50.9% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 12,369 | 27,400 | 45.1% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 15,786 | 27,104 | 58.2% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 11,728 | 26,663 | 44.0% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 16,465 | 25,878 | 63.6% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
27 precincts · 15,105 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct 1000004360991000004 | 309 | 634 | 4 | 947 | 32.6% | 66.9% | R+34.3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct 0400001360990400001 | 340 | 462 | 6 | 808 | 42.1% | 57.2% | R+15.1 |
| Precinct 1000001360991000001 | 316 | 417 | 2 | 735 | 43.0% | 56.7% | R+13.7 |
| Precinct 0900001360990900001 | 293 | 430 | 5 | 728 | 40.2% | 59.1% | R+18.8 |
| Precinct 0100001360990100001 | 417 | 301 | 9 | 727 | 57.4% | 41.4% | D+16.0 |
| Precinct 0700008360990700008 | 313 | 405 | 7 | 725 | 43.2% | 55.9% | R+12.7 |
| Precinct 0200003360990200003 | 256 | 432 | 8 | 696 | 36.8% | 62.1% | R+25.3 |
| Precinct 1000002360991000002 | 260 | 385 | 7 | 652 | 39.9% | 59.0% | R+19.2 |
| Precinct 0200002360990200002 | 279 | 363 | 4 | 646 | 43.2% | 56.2% | R+13.0 |
| Precinct 0700004360990700004 | 294 | 349 | 2 | 645 | 45.6% | 54.1% | R+8.5 |
| Precinct 0700002360990700002 | 310 | 284 | 2 | 596 | 52.0% | 47.7% | D+4.4 |
| Precinct 0100002360990100002 | 333 | 239 | 7 | 579 | 57.5% | 41.3% | D+16.2 |
| Precinct 0300001360990300001 | 161 | 386 | 1 | 548 | 29.4% | 70.4% | R+41.1 |
| Precinct 1000003360991000003 | 215 | 305 | 5 | 525 | 41.0% | 58.1% | R+17.1 |
| Precinct 0500002360990500002 | 206 | 302 | 5 | 513 | 40.2% | 58.9% | R+18.7 |
| Precinct 0700001360990700001 | 284 | 224 | 5 | 513 | 55.4% | 43.7% | D+11.7 |
| Precinct 0200001360990200001 | 226 | 273 | 6 | 505 | 44.8% | 54.1% | R+9.3 |
| Precinct 1000005360991000005 | 192 | 307 | 3 | 502 | 38.2% | 61.2% | R+22.9 |
| Precinct 0500001360990500001 | 213 | 282 | 6 | 501 | 42.5% | 56.3% | R+13.8 |
| Precinct 0700006360990700006 | 242 | 252 | 5 | 499 | 48.5% | 50.5% | R+2.0 |
| Precinct 0700005360990700005 | 213 | 280 | 4 | 497 | 42.9% | 56.3% | R+13.5 |
| Precinct 0800001360990800001 | 135 | 288 | 0 | 423 | 31.9% | 68.1% | R+36.2 |
| Precinct 0600002360990600002 | 193 | 183 | 3 | 379 | 50.9% | 48.3% | D+2.6 |
| Precinct 0700003360990700003 | 194 | 162 | 2 | 358 | 54.2% | 45.3% | D+8.9 |
| Precinct 0700007360990700007 | 188 | 122 | 3 | 313 | 60.1% | 39.0% | D+21.1 |
| Precinct 0600003360990600003 | 122 | 146 | 5 | 273 | 44.7% | 53.5% | R+8.8 |
| Precinct 0600001360990600001 | 106 | 166 | 0 | 272 | 39.0% | 61.0% | R+22.1 |
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | +1.3% |
| 1896 | −8.9% |
| 1900 | −4.4% |
| 1904 | −7.4% |
| 1908 | −8.6% |
| 1912 | +3.8% |
| 1916 | −7.1% |
| 1920 | −33.4% |
| 1924 | −49.0% |
| 1928 | −33.8% |
| 1932 | −15.1% |
| 1936 | −29.1% |
| 1940 | −33.0% |
| 1944 | −27.3% |
| 1948 | −18.9% |
| 1952 | −38.1% |
| 1956 | −48.4% |
| 1960 | −21.1% |
| 1964 | +33.0% |
| 1968 | −14.3% |
| 1972 | −35.6% |
| 1976 | −14.2% |
| 1980 | −15.8% |
| 1984 | −32.1% |
| 1988 | −7.4% |
| 1992 | +2.5% |
| 1996 | +13.0% |
| 2000 | +0.7% |
| 2004 | −6.5% |
| 2008 | +2.6% |
| 2012 | +9.1% |
| 2016 | −11.0% |
| 2020 | −9.1% |
| 2024 | −11.8% |
DemocraticRepublican
Federal and statewide elections · 1 House · 28 Senate · 2 Senate special · 12 governor
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | R | 44.1%6,065 | 55.9%7,693 | 13,758 |
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Party registration · 2026R+11.3
Presidential vote · 2024R+11.8
Registration and the presidential vote track closely here — within 0.5 points.
21,705 registered voters · 2026
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+190 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net −2,064 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $52,697 in average income, against $70,663 for residents who stayed — 25% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean D+2.3 on average — 14 points more Democratic-leaning than Seneca County, NY itself (R+11.8).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Ontario County, NY150R+1.2
- Wayne County, NY73R+23.0
- Tompkins County, NY52D+50.0
- Cayuga County, NY47R+13.0
- Monroe County, NY41D+19.0
- Onondaga County, NY22D+17.2
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Ontario County, NY147
- Wayne County, NY68
- Cayuga County, NY47
- Tompkins County, NY46
- Monroe County, NY42
- Onondaga County, NY23
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +54 |
| 2012 | −51 |
| 2013 | −176 |
| 2014 | −476 |
| 2015 | −103 |
| 2016 | −113 |
| 2017 | −426 |
| 2018 | −62 |
| 2019 | −175 |
| 2021 | −165 |
| 2022 | −530 |
| 2023 | −214 |
| 2024 | +183 |
| 2025 | +190 |
Seneca County sits between Cayuga and Seneca lakes, with a small population split between agricultural townships and the village of Waterloo. It backed the Republican presidential nominee by nearly 12 points in 2024, continuing a rightward shift from its closer margins a decade ago.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 33.0 points in 1964 and a Republican high of 49.0 points in 1924. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 2.7 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 11.8 points.
A population of 32,920, a 87% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $68,089 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Cayuga County and Madison County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Cayuga County
New York
93.4twin score
2000–2024 trajectory≠ % Catholic
Madison County
New York
92.5twin score
2012–2024 trajectoryItalian ancestry
Oswego County
New York
89.2twin score
2000–2012 trajectoryItalian ancestry≠ French ancestry
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Seneca County, New York. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/36099/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Cities & towns in Seneca County
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Frequently asked questions
How did Seneca County, New York vote in 2024?
In 2024, Seneca County, New York voted Republican by 11.8 points (R+11.8), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 15,034 votes cast, 6,610 went Democratic and 8,379 went Republican.
When did Seneca County, New York last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Seneca County, New York voted Democratic was 2012.
How many people live in Seneca County, New York?
Seneca County, New York has a population of 32,920 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Seneca County, New York?
Median household income in Seneca County, New York is $68,089 — below the national median of $80,734. The New York state median is $85,974.
What is the political history of Seneca County, New York?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Seneca County, New York from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 8 went Democratic and 26 went Republican.