HarrisDemocratic38.4%9,437TrumpRepublican61.2%15,038OtherAll other candidates0.3%84
R+22.8- Lead
- 5,601
- Total
- 24,559
- vs nation
- R+21.3
- Turnout
- 65.7%
Akashiccounty
Tioga County, NY
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
President results by year
2024 turnout 65.7% of 37,792 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic38.5%9,634TrumpRepublican59.1%14,791JorgensenLibertarian1.7%416
R+20.6- Lead
- 5,157
- Total
- 25,036
- vs nation
- R+25.0
- Turnout
- 66.5%
ClintonDemocratic33.8%7,526TrumpRepublican59.5%13,260JohnsonLibertarian4.2%930
R+25.7- Lead
- 5,734
- Total
- 22,299
- vs nation
- R+27.8
- Turnout
- 58.5%
ObamaDemocratic41.4%8,930RomneyRepublican56.1%12,117JohnsonIndependent2.1%464
R+14.8- Lead
- 3,187
- Total
- 21,589
- vs nation
- R+18.6
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic44.0%10,172McCainRepublican54.2%12,536OtherAll other candidates1.8%423
R+10.2- Lead
- 2,364
- Total
- 23,131
- vs nation
- R+17.5
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic40.6%9,694BushRepublican57.6%13,762OtherAll other candidates1.9%446
R+17.0- Lead
- 4,068
- Total
- 23,902
- vs nation
- R+14.6
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic40.8%9,170BushRepublican54.5%12,239NaderGreen3.8%846
R+13.7- Lead
- 3,069
- Total
- 22,457
- vs nation
- R+14.2
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic41.2%8,769DoleRepublican44.2%9,416PerotReform12.8%2,721
R+3.0- Lead
- 647
- Total
- 21,282
- vs nation
- R+11.6
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+22.8MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 47,8642024 5-year
- Median household income
- $72,7392024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 92.5%2024 5-year
- Black
- 1.3%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 2.4%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+18.6 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+57.9 in 1956MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Greene County, NY · twin score 90.8
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 65.7%24,841 participants ÷ 37,792 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +16.3 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- -5.4 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 49.4%–53.0%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 22,555 | 38,525 | 58.5% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 18,879 | 38,226 | 49.4% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 25,316 | 38,056 | 66.5% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 19,125 | 38,109 | 50.2% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 24,841 | 37,792 | 65.7% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
34 precincts · 24,559 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct 0900001361070900001 | 425 | 760 | 7 | 1,192 | 35.7% | 63.8% | R+28.1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct 0400001361070400001 | 377 | 751 | 1 | 1,129 | 33.4% | 66.5% | R+33.1 |
| Precinct 0600002361070600002 | 512 | 592 | 5 | 1,109 | 46.2% | 53.4% | R+7.2 |
| Precinct 0300003361070300003 | 364 | 720 | 6 | 1,090 | 33.4% | 66.1% | R+32.7 |
| Precinct 0300001361070300001 | 421 | 641 | 4 | 1,066 | 39.5% | 60.1% | R+20.6 |
| Precinct 0800001361070800001 | 442 | 591 | 8 | 1,041 | 42.5% | 56.8% | R+14.3 |
| Precinct 0600017361070600017 | 476 | 425 | 4 | 905 | 52.6% | 47.0% | D+5.6 |
| Precinct 0900002361070900002 | 224 | 667 | 3 | 894 | 25.1% | 74.6% | R+49.6 |
| Precinct 0100002361070100002 | 344 | 528 | 2 | 874 | 39.4% | 60.4% | R+21.1 |
| Precinct 0600004361070600004 | 350 | 512 | 2 | 864 | 40.5% | 59.3% | R+18.8 |
| Precinct 0600015361070600015 | 408 | 446 | 3 | 857 | 47.6% | 52.0% | R+4.4 |
| Precinct 0400002361070400002 | 283 | 519 | 1 | 803 | 35.2% | 64.6% | R+29.4 |
| Precinct 0200001361070200001 | 215 | 552 | 1 | 768 | 28.0% | 71.9% | R+43.9 |
| Precinct 0600005361070600005 | 322 | 430 | 1 | 753 | 42.8% | 57.1% | R+14.3 |
| Precinct 0600001361070600001 | 400 | 343 | 5 | 748 | 53.5% | 45.9% | D+7.6 |
| Precinct 0600012361070600012 | 270 | 464 | 1 | 735 | 36.7% | 63.1% | R+26.4 |
| Precinct 0600006361070600006 | 349 | 382 | 2 | 733 | 47.6% | 52.1% | R+4.5 |
| Precinct 0600019361070600019 | 266 | 391 | 4 | 661 | 40.2% | 59.2% | R+18.9 |
| Precinct 0600007361070600007 | 344 | 291 | 4 | 639 | 53.8% | 45.5% | D+8.3 |
| Precinct 0100001361070100001 | 254 | 380 | 1 | 635 | 40.0% | 59.8% | R+19.8 |
| Precinct 0600013361070600013 | 240 | 377 | 4 | 621 | 38.6% | 60.7% | R+22.1 |
| Precinct 0500002361070500002 | 167 | 436 | 2 | 605 | 27.6% | 72.1% | R+44.5 |
| Precinct 0700001361070700001 | 211 | 338 | 1 | 550 | 38.4% | 61.5% | R+23.1 |
| Precinct 0500001361070500001 | 189 | 350 | 0 | 539 | 35.1% | 64.9% | R+29.9 |
| Precinct 0600014361070600014 | 228 | 294 | 1 | 523 | 43.6% | 56.2% | R+12.6 |
| Precinct 0100007361070100007 | 153 | 360 | 2 | 515 | 29.7% | 69.9% | R+40.2 |
| Precinct 0100003361070100003 | 193 | 315 | 1 | 509 | 37.9% | 61.9% | R+24.0 |
| Precinct 0100005361070100005 | 119 | 383 | 1 | 503 | 23.7% | 76.1% | R+52.5 |
| Precinct 0800002361070800002 | 150 | 335 | 2 | 487 | 30.8% | 68.8% | R+38.0 |
| Precinct 0100004361070100004 | 108 | 366 | 1 | 475 | 22.7% | 77.1% | R+54.3 |
| Precinct 0600008361070600008 | 211 | 259 | 3 | 473 | 44.6% | 54.8% | R+10.1 |
| Precinct 0600003361070600003 | 175 | 293 | 0 | 468 | 37.4% | 62.6% | R+25.2 |
| Precinct 0600011361070600011 | 132 | 282 | 1 | 415 | 31.8% | 68.0% | R+36.1 |
| Precinct 0300002361070300002 | 115 | 265 | 0 | 380 | 30.3% | 69.7% | R+39.5 |
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | −16.8% |
| 1896 | −25.5% |
| 1900 | −21.3% |
| 1904 | −23.2% |
| 1908 | −21.2% |
| 1912 | −3.8% |
| 1916 | −9.8% |
| 1920 | −45.9% |
| 1924 | −51.8% |
| 1928 | −55.4% |
| 1932 | −32.3% |
| 1936 | −35.6% |
| 1940 | −40.2% |
| 1944 | −39.9% |
| 1948 | −42.8% |
| 1952 | −56.6% |
| 1956 | −57.9% |
| 1960 | −44.3% |
| 1964 | +18.6% |
| 1968 | −30.1% |
| 1972 | −41.9% |
| 1976 | −25.7% |
| 1980 | −18.7% |
| 1984 | −43.2% |
| 1988 | −21.8% |
| 1992 | −6.5% |
| 1996 | −3.0% |
| 2000 | −13.7% |
| 2004 | −17.0% |
| 2008 | −10.2% |
| 2012 | −14.8% |
| 2016 | −25.7% |
| 2020 | −20.6% |
| 2024 | −22.8% |
DemocraticRepublican
Federal and statewide elections · 1 House · 28 Senate · 2 Senate special · 12 governor
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | R | 38.1%8,526 | 61.9%13,837 | 22,363 |
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Party registration · 2026R+20.6
Presidential vote · 2024R+22.8
Registration and the presidential vote track closely here — within 2.2 points.
34,908 registered voters · 2026
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+32 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net −3,254 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $54,454 in average income, against $73,880 for residents who stayed — 26% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+3.5 on average — 19 points more Democratic-leaning than Tioga County, NY itself (R+22.8).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Broome County, NY353D+0.4
- Bradford County, PA121R+47.9
- Tompkins County, NY102D+50.0
- Chemung County, NY101R+16.7
- Cortland County, NY33R+6.4
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Broome County, NY308
- Chemung County, NY114
- Bradford County, PA113
- Tompkins County, NY88
- Cortland County, NY27
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −172 |
| 2012 | −633 |
| 2013 | −272 |
| 2014 | −362 |
| 2015 | −550 |
| 2016 | −535 |
| 2017 | −183 |
| 2018 | −126 |
| 2019 | −161 |
| 2021 | −174 |
| 2022 | −196 |
| 2023 | +15 |
| 2024 | +63 |
| 2025 | +32 |
Tioga's economy is rooted in agriculture and small manufacturing, and its presidential margins have moved roughly 20 points toward Republicans since 2000, tracking a broader realignment across rural upstate New York.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 18.6 points in 1964 and a Republican high of 57.9 points in 1956. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 2.2 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 22.8 points.
A population of 47,864, a 93% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $72,739 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Greene County and Wayne County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Greene County
New York
90.8twin score
% Evangelical% unaffiliated12-yr trend≠ Italian ancestry
Wayne County
New York
90.2twin score
% Evangelical% unaffiliatedItalian ancestry
Schoharie County
New York
89.1twin score
% EvangelicalIrish ancestryItalian ancestry
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Tioga County, New York. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/36107/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Cities & towns in Tioga County
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Frequently asked questions
How did Tioga County, New York vote in 2024?
In 2024, Tioga County, New York voted Republican by 22.8 points (R+22.8), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 24,559 votes cast, 9,437 went Democratic and 15,038 went Republican.
When did Tioga County, New York last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Tioga County, New York voted Democratic was 1964.
How many people live in Tioga County, New York?
Tioga County, New York has a population of 47,864 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Tioga County, New York?
Median household income in Tioga County, New York is $72,739 — below the national median of $80,734. The New York state median is $85,974.
What is the political history of Tioga County, New York?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Tioga County, New York from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 1 went Democratic and 33 went Republican.