HarrisDemocratic41.5%14,549TrumpRepublican58.1%20,386SteinIndependent0.3%91
R+16.6- Lead
- 5,837
- Total
- 35,062
- vs nation
- R+15.2
- Turnout
- 61.8%
Akashiccounty
Sullivan County, NY
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
President results by year
2024 turnout 61.8% of 58,140 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic44.7%15,489TrumpRepublican53.9%18,665JorgensenLibertarian0.7%247
R+9.2- Lead
- 3,176
- Total
- 34,647
- vs nation
- R+13.6
- Turnout
- 63.2%
ClintonDemocratic42.0%12,568TrumpRepublican53.2%15,931JohnsonLibertarian2.5%734
R+11.2- Lead
- 3,363
- Total
- 29,955
- vs nation
- R+13.3
- Turnout
- 54.2%
ObamaDemocratic53.7%15,268RomneyRepublican44.7%12,705JohnsonLibertarian0.7%195
D+9.0- Lead
- 2,563
- Total
- 28,415
- vs nation
- D+5.2
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic54.0%16,850McCainRepublican44.6%13,900OtherAll other candidates1.4%433
D+9.5- Lead
- 2,950
- Total
- 31,183
- vs nation
- D+2.2
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic48.6%15,034BushRepublican49.5%15,319OtherAll other candidates2.0%613
R+0.9- Lead
- 285
- Total
- 30,966
- vs nation
- D+1.5
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic50.3%14,348BushRepublican44.5%12,703NaderGreen4.1%1,156
D+5.8- Lead
- 1,645
- Total
- 28,528
- vs nation
- D+5.2
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic53.3%15,052DoleRepublican33.0%9,321PerotReform12.2%3,453
D+20.3- Lead
- 5,731
- Total
- 28,244
- vs nation
- D+11.8
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+16.6MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 79,7212024 5-year
- Median household income
- $72,3822024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 66.0%2024 5-year
- Black
- 8.4%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 19.0%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+35.2 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+35.4 in 1920MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Salem County, NJ · twin score 90.9
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 61.8%35,923 participants ÷ 58,140 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +20.5 ptsPresidential-dependent
- Drop-off versus state
- -1.3 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 41.3%–47.8%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 30,484 | 56,216 | 54.2% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 26,045 | 55,830 | 46.7% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 35,568 | 56,319 | 63.2% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 25,052 | 58,695 | 42.7% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 35,923 | 58,140 | 61.8% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
90 precincts · 35,062 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct 1400001361051400001 | 512 | 634 | 6 | 1,152 | 44.4% | 55.0% | R+10.6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct 1400002361051400002 | 378 | 548 | 4 | 930 | 40.6% | 58.9% | R+18.3 |
| Precinct 1500001361051500001 | 500 | 372 | 4 | 876 | 57.1% | 42.5% | D+14.6 |
| Precinct 0300001361050300001 | 361 | 512 | 2 | 875 | 41.3% | 58.5% | R+17.3 |
| Precinct 0900006361050900006 | 467 | 381 | 1 | 849 | 55.0% | 44.9% | D+10.1 |
| Precinct 0100004361050100004 | 398 | 439 | 1 | 838 | 47.5% | 52.4% | R+4.9 |
| Precinct 1200004361051200004 | 279 | 492 | 3 | 774 | 36.0% | 63.6% | R+27.5 |
| Precinct 0400001361050400001 | 430 | 334 | 3 | 767 | 56.1% | 43.5% | D+12.5 |
| Precinct 0500009361050500009 | 215 | 539 | 1 | 755 | 28.5% | 71.4% | R+42.9 |
| Precinct 0500003361050500003 | 255 | 492 | 4 | 751 | 34.0% | 65.5% | R+31.6 |
| Precinct 0800002361050800002 | 320 | 411 | 4 | 735 | 43.5% | 55.9% | R+12.4 |
| Precinct 1200001361051200001 | 243 | 483 | 1 | 727 | 33.4% | 66.4% | R+33.0 |
| Precinct 1400012361051400012 | 346 | 344 | 0 | 690 | 50.1% | 49.9% | D+0.3 |
| Precinct 1400003361051400003 | 245 | 431 | 1 | 677 | 36.2% | 63.7% | R+27.5 |
| Precinct 1000002361051000002 | 294 | 348 | 5 | 647 | 45.4% | 53.8% | R+8.3 |
| Precinct 0100001361050100001 | 258 | 378 | 1 | 637 | 40.5% | 59.3% | R+18.8 |
| Precinct 0200001361050200001 | 287 | 333 | 7 | 627 | 45.8% | 53.1% | R+7.3 |
| Precinct 0500002361050500002 | 148 | 437 | 3 | 588 | 25.2% | 74.3% | R+49.1 |
| Precinct 1100009361051100009 | 267 | 320 | 1 | 588 | 45.4% | 54.4% | R+9.0 |
| Precinct 1100003361051100003 | 215 | 362 | 3 | 580 | 37.1% | 62.4% | R+25.3 |
| Precinct 0900005361050900005 | 283 | 292 | 3 | 578 | 49.0% | 50.5% | R+1.6 |
| Precinct 1000001361051000001 | 213 | 348 | 3 | 564 | 37.8% | 61.7% | R+23.9 |
| Precinct 1100012361051100012 | 211 | 351 | 2 | 564 | 37.4% | 62.2% | R+24.8 |
| Precinct 0800001361050800001 | 273 | 284 | 1 | 558 | 48.9% | 50.9% | R+2.0 |
| Precinct 0700001361050700001 | 211 | 336 | 5 | 552 | 38.2% | 60.9% | R+22.6 |
| Precinct 1400009361051400009 | 374 | 172 | 1 | 547 | 68.4% | 31.4% | D+36.9 |
| Precinct 0500007361050500007 | 159 | 374 | 1 | 534 | 29.8% | 70.0% | R+40.3 |
| Precinct 0900007361050900007 | 128 | 400 | 1 | 529 | 24.2% | 75.6% | R+51.4 |
| Precinct 0400002361050400002 | 190 | 327 | 1 | 518 | 36.7% | 63.1% | R+26.4 |
| Precinct 0500006361050500006 | 219 | 292 | 3 | 514 | 42.6% | 56.8% | R+14.2 |
| Precinct 0200002361050200002 | 257 | 244 | 3 | 504 | 51.0% | 48.4% | D+2.6 |
| Precinct 1300002361051300002 | 237 | 265 | 2 | 504 | 47.0% | 52.6% | R+5.6 |
| Precinct 0600001361050600001 | 241 | 254 | 2 | 497 | 48.5% | 51.1% | R+2.6 |
| Precinct 0100003361050100003 | 225 | 268 | 0 | 493 | 45.6% | 54.4% | R+8.7 |
| Precinct 0500005361050500005 | 176 | 313 | 2 | 491 | 35.8% | 63.7% | R+27.9 |
| Precinct 1100001361051100001 | 190 | 271 | 3 | 464 | 40.9% | 58.4% | R+17.5 |
| Precinct 0500008361050500008 | 146 | 311 | 0 | 457 | 31.9% | 68.1% | R+36.1 |
| Precinct 1100004361051100004 | 164 | 285 | 1 | 450 | 36.4% | 63.3% | R+26.9 |
| Precinct 1100006361051100006 | 185 | 261 | 1 | 447 | 41.4% | 58.4% | R+17.0 |
| Precinct 0500001361050500001 | 101 | 344 | 1 | 446 | 22.6% | 77.1% | R+54.5 |
| Precinct 0900010361050900010 | 183 | 258 | 3 | 444 | 41.2% | 58.1% | R+16.9 |
| Precinct 1400007361051400007 | 179 | 253 | 2 | 434 | 41.2% | 58.3% | R+17.1 |
| Precinct 1100002361051100002 | 151 | 278 | 3 | 432 | 35.0% | 64.4% | R+29.4 |
| Precinct 1100008361051100008 | 173 | 241 | 2 | 416 | 41.6% | 57.9% | R+16.3 |
| Precinct 1300004361051300004 | 185 | 219 | 0 | 404 | 45.8% | 54.2% | R+8.4 |
| Precinct 1400010361051400010 | 233 | 152 | 0 | 385 | 60.5% | 39.5% | D+21.0 |
| Precinct 1400005361051400005 | 148 | 227 | 2 | 377 | 39.3% | 60.2% | R+21.0 |
| Precinct 0900003361050900003 | 151 | 219 | 1 | 371 | 40.7% | 59.0% | R+18.3 |
| Precinct 1100007361051100007 | 144 | 207 | 0 | 351 | 41.0% | 59.0% | R+17.9 |
| Precinct 1300005361051300005 | 145 | 175 | 0 | 320 | 45.3% | 54.7% | R+9.4 |
| Precinct 1400004361051400004 | 120 | 192 | 1 | 313 | 38.3% | 61.3% | R+23.0 |
| Precinct 1100010361051100010 | 127 | 182 | 2 | 311 | 40.8% | 58.5% | R+17.7 |
| Precinct 1300001361051300001 | 136 | 168 | 1 | 305 | 44.6% | 55.1% | R+10.5 |
| Precinct 0200003361050200003 | 113 | 182 | 1 | 296 | 38.2% | 61.5% | R+23.3 |
| Precinct 0500004361050500004 | 164 | 120 | 3 | 287 | 57.1% | 41.8% | D+15.3 |
| Precinct 1400006361051400006 | 181 | 102 | 0 | 283 | 64.0% | 36.0% | D+27.9 |
| Precinct 1100014361051100014 | 115 | 161 | 1 | 277 | 41.5% | 58.1% | R+16.6 |
| Precinct 0900008361050900008 | 45 | 224 | 0 | 269 | 16.7% | 83.3% | R+66.5 |
| Precinct 1200002361051200002 | 68 | 194 | 0 | 262 | 26.0% | 74.0% | R+48.1 |
| Precinct 1100011361051100011 | 9 | 244 | 0 | 253 | 3.6% | 96.4% | R+92.9 |
| Precinct 0900004361050900004 | 92 | 156 | 0 | 248 | 37.1% | 62.9% | R+25.8 |
| Precinct 1400008361051400008 | 119 | 91 | 0 | 210 | 56.7% | 43.3% | D+13.3 |
| Precinct 0900002361050900002 | 69 | 139 | 0 | 208 | 33.2% | 66.8% | R+33.7 |
| Precinct 0100002361050100002 | 64 | 142 | 1 | 207 | 30.9% | 68.6% | R+37.7 |
| Precinct 0900009361050900009 | 54 | 127 | 0 | 181 | 29.8% | 70.2% | R+40.3 |
| Precinct 1400011361051400011 | 85 | 88 | 0 | 173 | 49.1% | 50.9% | R+1.7 |
| Precinct 0700002361050700002 | 61 | 109 | 2 | 172 | 35.5% | 63.4% | R+27.9 |
| Precinct 0200004361050200004 | 62 | 97 | 2 | 161 | 38.5% | 60.2% | R+21.7 |
| Precinct 1100005361051100005 | 64 | 79 | 1 | 144 | 44.4% | 54.9% | R+10.4 |
| Precinct 1300003361051300003 | 53 | 88 | 0 | 141 | 37.6% | 62.4% | R+24.8 |
| Precinct 1100015361051100015 | 44 | 93 | 0 | 137 | 32.1% | 67.9% | R+35.8 |
| Precinct 0200005361050200005 | 66 | 69 | 1 | 136 | 48.5% | 50.7% | R+2.2 |
| Precinct 1100023361051100023 | 58 | 74 | 2 | 134 | 43.3% | 55.2% | R+11.9 |
| Precinct 1200003361051200003 | 56 | 73 | 0 | 129 | 43.4% | 56.6% | R+13.2 |
| Precinct 0100005361050100005 | 40 | 74 | 1 | 115 | 34.8% | 64.3% | R+29.6 |
| Precinct 0900001361050900001 | 41 | 56 | 1 | 98 | 41.8% | 57.1% | R+15.3 |
| Precinct 1300006361051300006 | 58 | 34 | 0 | 92 | 63.0% | 37.0% | D+26.1 |
| Precinct 1100021361051100021 | 25 | 52 | 1 | 78 | 32.1% | 66.7% | R+34.6 |
| Precinct 1100016361051100016 | 15 | 47 | 0 | 62 | 24.2% | 75.8% | R+51.6 |
| Precinct 1100024361051100024 | 13 | 35 | 0 | 48 | 27.1% | 72.9% | R+45.8 |
| Precinct 1100017361051100017 | 12 | 20 | 2 | 34 | 35.3% | 58.8% | R+23.5 |
| Precinct 1100027361051100027 | 9 | 25 | 0 | 34 | 26.5% | 73.5% | R+47.1 |
| Precinct 1100029361051100029 | 12 | 11 | 0 | 23 | 52.2% | 47.8% | D+4.3 |
| Precinct 1100028361051100028 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 19 | 15.8% | 84.2% | R+68.4 |
| Precinct 0500011361050500011 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 0.0% | 100.0% | R+100.0 |
| Precinct 0500010361050500010 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.0% | 100.0% | R+100.0 |
| Precinct 0500012361050500012 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | Exact tie |
| Precinct 1100018361051100018 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 100.0% | 0.0% | D+100.0 |
| Precinct 1100019361051100019 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | 100.0% | R+100.0 |
| Precinct 1100026361051100026 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | 100.0% | R+100.0 |
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | −1.3% |
| 1896 | −19.3% |
| 1900 | −9.4% |
| 1904 | −10.6% |
| 1908 | −7.8% |
| 1912 | +10.2% |
| 1916 | −8.3% |
| 1920 | −35.4% |
| 1924 | −27.0% |
| 1928 | −24.5% |
| 1932 | +7.4% |
| 1936 | +0.8% |
| 1940 | −9.6% |
| 1944 | −12.0% |
| 1948 | −17.0% |
| 1952 | −27.5% |
| 1956 | −27.9% |
| 1960 | −8.9% |
| 1964 | +35.2% |
| 1968 | −3.3% |
| 1972 | −26.7% |
| 1976 | +1.7% |
| 1980 | −20.3% |
| 1984 | −26.4% |
| 1988 | −14.8% |
| 1992 | +7.3% |
| 1996 | +20.3% |
| 2000 | +5.8% |
| 2004 | −0.9% |
| 2008 | +9.5% |
| 2012 | +9.0% |
| 2016 | −11.2% |
| 2020 | −9.2% |
| 2024 | −16.6% |
DemocraticRepublican
Federal and statewide elections · 2 House · 28 Senate · 2 Senate special · 12 governor
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Party registration · 2026D+0.6
Presidential vote · 2024R+16.6
Sullivan County, NY registers Democratic but votes Republican — a 17-point gap between how voters register and how they vote, the signature of ancestral registration that trails realignment.
54,712 registered voters · 2026
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
−753 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net −4,306 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $81,480 in average income, against $75,961 for residents who stayed — 7% higher. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean D+13.0 on average — 30 points more Democratic-leaning than Sullivan County, NY itself (R+16.6).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Orange County, NY455R+8.4
- Kings County, NY209D+43.3
- Ulster County, NY129D+18.5
- Queens County, NY123D+24.2
- New York County, NY98D+64.2
- Bronx County, NY73D+45.1
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Orange County, NY338
- Ulster County, NY138
- Kings County, NY99
- Queens County, NY60
- New York County, NY52
- Rockland County, NY52
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −685 |
| 2012 | −382 |
| 2013 | −324 |
| 2014 | −1,549 |
| 2015 | −1,065 |
| 2016 | −128 |
| 2017 | −181 |
| 2018 | +151 |
| 2019 | +40 |
| 2021 | +1,255 |
| 2022 | −179 |
| 2023 | −86 |
| 2024 | −420 |
| 2025 | −753 |
Once a Democratic stronghold anchored by Borscht Belt tourism and labor voters, Sullivan County now votes Republican by double digits, reflecting a rural realignment visible across the broader Catskills region.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 35.2 points in 1964 and a Republican high of 35.4 points in 1920. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 7.5 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 16.6 points.
A population of 79,721, a 66% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $72,382 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Salem County and Monroe County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Salem County
New Jersey
90.9twin score
2000–2012 trajectoryelasticity% Evangelical≠ English ancestry
Monroe County
Pennsylvania
89.8twin score
2004–2012 trajectoryelasticity
Kenosha County
Wisconsin
88.9twin score
2000–2012 trajectory≠ Polish ancestry
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
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All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Sullivan County, New York. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/36105/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Cities & towns in Sullivan County
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Frequently asked questions
How did Sullivan County, New York vote in 2024?
In 2024, Sullivan County, New York voted Republican by 16.6 points (R+16.6), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 35,062 votes cast, 14,549 went Democratic and 20,386 went Republican.
When did Sullivan County, New York last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Sullivan County, New York voted Democratic was 2012.
How many people live in Sullivan County, New York?
Sullivan County, New York has a population of 79,721 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Sullivan County, New York?
Median household income in Sullivan County, New York is $72,382 — below the national median of $80,734. The New York state median is $85,974.
What is the political history of Sullivan County, New York?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Sullivan County, New York from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 10 went Democratic and 24 went Republican.