HarrisDemocratic44.6%40,214TrumpRepublican53.1%47,836KennedyIndependent0.7%674
R+8.5- Lead
- 7,622
- Total
- 90,140
- vs nation
- R+7.0
- Turnout
- 82.6%
Akashiccounty
Scott County, MN
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
President results by year
2024 turnout 82.6% of 109,765 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic45.5%40,040TrumpRepublican52.1%45,872JorgensenLibertarian1.2%1,048
R+6.6- Lead
- 5,832
- Total
- 87,965
- vs nation
- R+11.1
- Turnout
- 85.8%
ClintonDemocratic38.0%28,502TrumpRepublican53.2%39,948JohnsonLibertarian4.5%3,400
R+15.3- Lead
- 11,446
- Total
- 75,029
- vs nation
- R+17.3
- Turnout
- 79.4%
ObamaDemocratic41.5%29,712RomneyRepublican56.3%40,323GRAYLibertarian1.3%941
R+14.8- Lead
- 10,611
- Total
- 71,647
- vs nation
- R+18.7
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic43.5%29,208McCainRepublican54.7%36,724OtherAll other candidates1.8%1,200
R+11.2- Lead
- 7,516
- Total
- 67,132
- vs nation
- R+18.5
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic39.5%23,958BushRepublican59.5%36,055OtherAll other candidates1.0%626
R+19.9- Lead
- 12,097
- Total
- 60,639
- vs nation
- R+17.5
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic40.0%17,503BushRepublican54.7%23,954NaderGreen4.2%1,829
R+14.7- Lead
- 6,451
- Total
- 43,793
- vs nation
- R+15.2
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic44.6%14,657DoleRepublican38.8%12,734PerotReform14.9%4,886
D+5.9- Lead
- 1,923
- Total
- 32,847
- vs nation
- R+2.7
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+8.5MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 154,5572024 5-year
- Median household income
- $119,3142024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 75.6%2024 5-year
- Black
- 6.1%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 6.4%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+61.9 in 1932MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+40.3 in 1920MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Carver County, MN · twin score 94.8
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 82.6%90,658 participants ÷ 109,765 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +21.6 ptsPresidential-dependent
- Drop-off versus state
- +1.7 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 61.0%–65.9%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 75,643 | 95,238 | 79.4% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 66,700 | 98,453 | 67.7% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 88,284 | 102,927 | 85.8% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 68,288 | 106,434 | 64.2% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 90,658 | 109,765 | 82.6% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
97 precincts · 90,141 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -BELLE PLAINEBELLE PLAINE | 1,418 | 2,707 | 78 | 4,203 | 33.7% | 64.4% | R+30.7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -ELKO NEW MARKETELKO NEW MARKET | 1,006 | 1,994 | 62 | 3,062 | 32.9% | 65.1% | R+32.3 |
| Precinct -NEW PRAGUE P-2NEW PRAGUE P-2 | 1,010 | 1,686 | 52 | 2,748 | 36.8% | 61.4% | R+24.6 |
| Precinct -SAVAGE P-5SAVAGE P-5 | 1,410 | 1,232 | 61 | 2,703 | 52.2% | 45.6% | D+6.6 |
| Precinct -NEW MARKET TWPNEW MARKET TWP | 828 | 1,701 | 45 | 2,574 | 32.2% | 66.1% | R+33.9 |
| Precinct -SAVAGE P-9SAVAGE P-9 | 1,423 | 1,077 | 63 | 2,563 | 55.5% | 42.0% | D+13.5 |
| Precinct -SPRING LAKE TWP P-1SPRING LAKE TWP P-1 | 796 | 1,714 | 39 | 2,549 | 31.2% | 67.2% | R+36.0 |
| Precinct -SAVAGE P-4SAVAGE P-4 | 1,350 | 1,056 | 74 | 2,480 | 54.4% | 42.6% | D+11.9 |
| Precinct -PRIOR LAKE P-7PRIOR LAKE P-7 | 1,153 | 1,116 | 44 | 2,313 | 49.8% | 48.2% | D+1.6 |
| Precinct -SHAKOPEE P-12ASHAKOPEE P-12A | 1,174 | 1,055 | 69 | 2,298 | 51.1% | 45.9% | D+5.2 |
| Precinct -SAVAGE P-3SAVAGE P-3 | 1,150 | 1,030 | 87 | 2,267 | 50.7% | 45.4% | D+5.3 |
| Precinct -CREDIT RIVER P-2CREDIT RIVER P-2 | 700 | 1,484 | 44 | 2,228 | 31.4% | 66.6% | R+35.2 |
| Precinct -PRIOR LAKE P-8PRIOR LAKE P-8 | 1,010 | 1,153 | 47 | 2,210 | 45.7% | 52.2% | R+6.5 |
| Precinct -CEDAR LAKE TWPCEDAR LAKE TWP | 629 | 1,527 | 35 | 2,191 | 28.7% | 69.7% | R+41.0 |
| Precinct -JORDAN P-1JORDAN P-1 | 841 | 1,295 | 52 | 2,188 | 38.4% | 59.2% | R+20.7 |
| Precinct -PRIOR LAKE P-1PRIOR LAKE P-1 | 893 | 1,173 | 48 | 2,114 | 42.2% | 55.5% | R+13.2 |
| Precinct -PRIOR LAKE P-3PRIOR LAKE P-3 | 987 | 1,057 | 57 | 2,101 | 47.0% | 50.3% | R+3.3 |
| Precinct -SAVAGE P-6SAVAGE P-6 | 999 | 1,054 | 47 | 2,100 | 47.6% | 50.2% | R+2.6 |
| Precinct -SAVAGE P-7SAVAGE P-7 | 1,099 | 912 | 60 | 2,071 | 53.1% | 44.0% | D+9.0 |
| Precinct -SAVAGE P-1SAVAGE P-1 | 1,038 | 880 | 68 | 1,986 | 52.3% | 44.3% | D+8.0 |
| Precinct -SHAKOPEE P-06SHAKOPEE P-06 | 969 | 952 | 38 | 1,959 | 49.5% | 48.6% | D+0.9 |
| Precinct -SHAKOPEE P-01SHAKOPEE P-01 | 945 | 959 | 52 | 1,956 | 48.3% | 49.0% | R+0.7 |
| Precinct -PRIOR LAKE P-5PRIOR LAKE P-5 | 849 | 1,024 | 41 | 1,914 | 44.4% | 53.5% | R+9.1 |
| Precinct -PRIOR LAKE P-6PRIOR LAKE P-6 | 857 | 1,004 | 44 | 1,905 | 45.0% | 52.7% | R+7.7 |
| Precinct -PRIOR LAKE P-9PRIOR LAKE P-9 | 918 | 905 | 38 | 1,861 | 49.3% | 48.6% | D+0.7 |
| Precinct -SHAKOPEE P-08SHAKOPEE P-08 | 928 | 859 | 54 | 1,841 | 50.4% | 46.7% | D+3.7 |
| Precinct -SAVAGE P-2SAVAGE P-2 | 981 | 775 | 53 | 1,809 | 54.2% | 42.8% | D+11.4 |
| Precinct -SHAKOPEE P-05SHAKOPEE P-05 | 898 | 843 | 22 | 1,763 | 50.9% | 47.8% | D+3.1 |
| Precinct -SHAKOPEE P-09ASHAKOPEE P-09A | 807 | 911 | 28 | 1,746 | 46.2% | 52.2% | R+6.0 |
| Precinct -PRIOR LAKE P-2PRIOR LAKE P-2 | 807 | 869 | 34 | 1,710 | 47.2% | 50.8% | R+3.6 |
| Precinct -SHAKOPEE P-04SHAKOPEE P-04 | 921 | 688 | 50 | 1,659 | 55.5% | 41.5% | D+14.0 |
| Precinct -SHAKOPEE P-14SHAKOPEE P-14 | 826 | 776 | 55 | 1,657 | 49.8% | 46.8% | D+3.0 |
| Precinct -PRIOR LAKE P-4PRIOR LAKE P-4 | 743 | 870 | 30 | 1,643 | 45.2% | 53.0% | R+7.7 |
| Precinct -JORDAN P-2JORDAN P-2 | 576 | 964 | 49 | 1,589 | 36.2% | 60.7% | R+24.4 |
| Precinct -SHAKOPEE P-02SHAKOPEE P-02 | 791 | 736 | 49 | 1,576 | 50.2% | 46.7% | D+3.5 |
| Precinct -CREDIT RIVER P-1CREDIT RIVER P-1 | 553 | 986 | 32 | 1,571 | 35.2% | 62.8% | R+27.6 |
| Precinct -SHAKOPEE P-07SHAKOPEE P-07 | 788 | 668 | 44 | 1,500 | 52.5% | 44.5% | D+8.0 |
| Precinct -SHAKOPEE P-10SHAKOPEE P-10 | 768 | 547 | 34 | 1,349 | 56.9% | 40.5% | D+16.4 |
| Precinct -HELENA TWPHELENA TWP | 355 | 867 | 30 | 1,252 | 28.4% | 69.2% | R+40.9 |
| Precinct -SHAKOPEE P-11SHAKOPEE P-11 | 622 | 574 | 24 | 1,220 | 51.0% | 47.0% | D+3.9 |
| Precinct -SHAKOPEE P-03SHAKOPEE P-03 | 568 | 571 | 16 | 1,155 | 49.2% | 49.4% | R+0.3 |
| Precinct -SAVAGE P-8SAVAGE P-8 | 674 | 447 | 18 | 1,139 | 59.2% | 39.2% | D+19.9 |
| Precinct -SAND CREEK TWPSAND CREEK TWP | 310 | 649 | 16 | 975 | 31.8% | 66.6% | R+34.8 |
| Precinct -SHAKOPEE P-13SHAKOPEE P-13 | 515 | 349 | 26 | 890 | 57.9% | 39.2% | D+18.7 |
| Precinct -LOUISVILLE TWPLOUISVILLE TWP | 278 | 579 | 18 | 875 | 31.8% | 66.2% | R+34.4 |
| Precinct -SHAKOPEE P-12BSHAKOPEE P-12B | 413 | 290 | 22 | 725 | 57.0% | 40.0% | D+17.0 |
| Precinct -BELLE PLAINE TWPBELLE PLAINE TWP | 147 | 447 | 11 | 605 | 24.3% | 73.9% | R+49.6 |
| Precinct -JACKSON TWP P-2JACKSON TWP P-2 | 129 | 191 | 7 | 327 | 39.4% | 58.4% | R+19.0 |
| Precinct -ST LAWRENCE TWPST LAWRENCE TWP | 80 | 224 | 7 | 311 | 25.7% | 72.0% | R+46.3 |
| Precinct -JACKSON TWP P-1JACKSON TWP P-1 | 151 | 144 | 8 | 303 | 49.8% | 47.5% | D+2.3 |
| Precinct -BLAKELEY TWPBLAKELEY TWP | 68 | 218 | 5 | 291 | 23.4% | 74.9% | R+51.5 |
| Precinct -SHAKOPEE P-09BSHAKOPEE P-09B | 40 | 19 | 1 | 60 | 66.7% | 31.7% | D+35.0 |
| Precinct -SPRING LAKE TWP P-2SPRING LAKE TWP P-2 | 25 | 29 | 2 | 56 | 44.6% | 51.8% | R+7.1 |
| Belle Plaine Twp. Voting District27_271390010 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Belle Plaine Voting District27_271390005 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Blakeley Twp. Voting District27_271390015 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Cedar Lake Twp. Voting District27_271390020 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Credit River Twp. Voting District27_271390025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Elko New Market Voting District27_271390037 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Helena Twp. Voting District27_271390040 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Jackson Twp. Voting District27_271390045 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Jordan P-127_271390050 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Jordan P-227_271390055 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Louisville Twp. Voting District27_271390060 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| New Market Twp. Voting District27_271390070 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| New Prague P-227_271390075 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Prior Lake P-127_271390080 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Prior Lake P-227_271390084 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Prior Lake P-327_271390090 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Prior Lake P-427_271390091 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Prior Lake P-527_271390092 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Prior Lake P-6A27_271390093 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Prior Lake P-6B27_271390094 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Prior Lake P-727_271390097 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Sand Creek Twp. Voting District27_271390100 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Savage P-127_271390105 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Savage P-227_271390110 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Savage P-327_271390111 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Savage P-427_271390112 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Savage P-527_271390113 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Savage P-627_271390114 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Savage P-727_271390116 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Savage P-827_271390117 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Shakopee P-127_271390119 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Shakopee P-10 Voting District27_271390150 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Shakopee P-1127_271390153 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Shakopee P-1227_271390156 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Shakopee P-227_271390120 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Shakopee P-327_271390125 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Shakopee P-427_271390130 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Shakopee P-527_271390135 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Shakopee P-627_271390136 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Shakopee P-727_271390137 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Shakopee P-827_271390138 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Shakopee P-927_271390145 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Spring Lake Twp. Voting District27_271390160 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| St. Lawrence Twp. Voting District27_271390099 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | +41.6% |
| 1896 | +19.7% |
| 1900 | +22.4% |
| 1904 | −5.3% |
| 1908 | +18.9% |
| 1912 | +31.1% |
| 1916 | +16.4% |
| 1920 | −40.3% |
| 1924 | −11.0% |
| 1928 | +43.6% |
| 1932 | +61.9% |
| 1936 | +35.6% |
| 1940 | −18.6% |
| 1944 | −8.8% |
| 1948 | +24.4% |
| 1952 | −12.6% |
| 1956 | −9.4% |
| 1960 | +24.5% |
| 1964 | +37.2% |
| 1968 | +17.1% |
| 1972 | −3.9% |
| 1976 | +15.7% |
| 1980 | +0.5% |
| 1984 | −14.1% |
| 1988 | −6.7% |
| 1992 | +0.9% |
| 1996 | +5.9% |
| 2000 | −14.7% |
| 2004 | −19.9% |
| 2008 | −11.2% |
| 2012 | −14.8% |
| 2016 | −15.3% |
| 2020 | −6.6% |
| 2024 | −8.5% |
DemocraticRepublican
Federal and statewide elections · 2 House · 38 Senate · 2 Senate special · 12 governor
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | R | 49.8%42,660 | 50.2%43,078 | 85,738 |
| 2020 | R | 43.5%35,050 | 56.5%45,444 | 80,494 |
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
Registered voters
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 87,165 |
| 2018 | 87,823 |
| 2020 | 98,717 |
| 2022 | 97,876 |
| 2024 | 105,744 |
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+575 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net +7,100 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $80,971 in average income, against $126,243 for residents who stayed — 36% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean D+19.7 on average — 28 points more Democratic-leaning than Scott County, MN itself (R+8.5).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Hennepin County, MN1,348D+42.4
- Dakota County, MN1,022D+12.8
- Carver County, MN249R+5.4
- Ramsey County, MN196D+43.1
- Le Sueur County, MN114R+33.6
- Rice County, MN93R+2.5
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Hennepin County, MN1,096
- Dakota County, MN964
- Carver County, MN341
- Ramsey County, MN176
- Le Sueur County, MN149
- Rice County, MN103
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +483 |
| 2012 | +946 |
| 2013 | +587 |
| 2014 | +353 |
| 2015 | +733 |
| 2016 | +548 |
| 2017 | +925 |
| 2018 | +413 |
| 2019 | +611 |
| 2021 | +1,066 |
| 2022 | +71 |
| 2023 | −64 |
| 2024 | −147 |
| 2025 | +575 |
Scott County sits in the fast-growing Twin Cities exurban ring, where rapid population growth and an influx of younger, college-educated residents have steadily compressed margins that once ran well into double digits for Republicans.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 61.9 points in 1932 and a Republican high of 40.3 points in 1920. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 1.8 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 8.5 points.
A population of 154,557, a 76% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $119,314 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Carver County and Washington County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Carver County
Minnesota
94.8twin score
median income12-yr trendcollege share≠ Swedish ancestry
Washington County
Minnesota
91.2twin score
median income12-yr trendcollege share≠ Swedish ancestry
Dakota County
Minnesota
90.4twin score
12-yr trendcollege sharemedian income
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Scott County, Minnesota. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/27139/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Cities & towns in Scott County
Minnesota at the ballot boxAll elections →
Frequently asked questions
How did Scott County, Minnesota vote in 2024?
In 2024, Scott County, Minnesota voted Republican by 8.5 points (R+8.5), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 90,140 votes cast, 40,214 went Democratic and 47,836 went Republican.
When did Scott County, Minnesota last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Scott County, Minnesota voted Democratic was 1996.
How many people live in Scott County, Minnesota?
Scott County, Minnesota has a population of 154,557 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Scott County, Minnesota?
Median household income in Scott County, Minnesota is $119,314 — above the national median of $80,734. The Minnesota state median is $89,062.
What is the political history of Scott County, Minnesota?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Scott County, Minnesota from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 17 went Democratic and 16 went Republican.