Minnesota 2nd Congressional District, Minnesota: Bellwether district. In 2024, voted D+5%. Republican peak: R+42 in 1920.
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+5MIT Election Lab
- Political archetype
- BellwetherAkashic typology
- Population
- 726,4572024 5-year
- Median household income
- $108,1392024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 76.1%2024 5-year
- Black
- 6.9%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 8.0%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+37 in 1932MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+42 in 1920MIT Election Lab
Predecessors: LEWIS, Jason Mark (2017–2019), KLINE, John (2015–2017), KLINE, John (2013–2015), KLINE, John (2011–2013)
Source · Voteview / Lewis, Poole, Rosenthal et al. (CC-BY).
| Year | Won | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D | 218,110 | 195,628 | 423,984 | ||
| D | 220,642 | 191,810 | 422,624 | ||
| R | 166,125 | 171,387 | 370,818 | ||
| R | 177,265 | 180,362 | 365,676 | ||
| D | 177,725 | 170,138 | 354,684 | ||
| R | 157,376 | 174,565 | 335,556 | ||
| R | 126,276 | 134,426 | 275,801 | ||
| D | 114,236 | 84,475 | 230,198 | ||
| D | 93,316 | 76,711 | 233,028 | ||
| D | 92,713 | 91,964 | 186,303 | ||
| R | 75,847 | 85,795 | 162,650 | ||
| D | 68,533 | 64,639 | 149,747 | ||
| D | 72,316 | 58,351 | 134,438 | ||
| R | 47,918 | 56,918 | 106,959 | ||
| D | 48,051 | 34,399 | 86,116 | ||
| D | 50,847 | 25,350 | 76,334 | ||
| D | 37,773 | 30,159 | 68,075 | ||
| R | 23,775 | 29,092 | 52,978 | ||
| R | 22,645 | 29,183 | 52,006 | ||
| D | 26,650 | 18,019 | 45,298 | ||
| R | 18,415 | 20,740 | 39,382 | ||
| R | 19,965 | 24,137 | 44,256 | ||
| D | 22,606 | 11,995 | 40,256 | ||
| D | 24,619 | 11,216 | 36,368 | ||
| D | 19,956 | 16,157 | 36,296 | ||
| R | 3,781 | 11,998 | 27,514 | ||
| R | 6,776 | 17,353 | 25,160 | ||
| D | 6,972 | 6,100 | 13,631 | ||
| D | 5,619 | 2,655 | 13,614 | ||
| R | 6,172 | 7,514 | 14,398 | ||
| R | 4,087 | 8,309 | 12,891 | ||
| R | 6,546 | 7,123 | 14,254 | ||
| R | 7,477 | 8,320 | 16,356 | ||
| R | 5,492 | 7,125 | 14,014 | ||
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U.S. Senate
| Year | Won | D % | R % | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | D | 56.2% | 40.5% | 3,189,323 |
| 2020 | D | 48.7% | 43.5% | 3,214,256 |
| 2018 | D | 60.3% | 36.2% | 2,596,879 |
| 2014 | D | 53.2% | 42.9% | 1,981,528 |
| 2012 | D | 65.2% | 30.5% | 2,843,207 |
| 2008 | D | 42.0% | 42.0% | 2,887,646 |
| 2006 | D | 58.1% | 37.9% | 2,202,772 |
| 2002 | R | 47.8% | 49.5% | 2,254,636 |
| 2000 | D | 48.8% | 43.3% | 2,419,520 |
| 1996 | D | 50.3% | 41.3% | 2,182,905 |
| 1994 | R | 44.1% | 49.1% | 1,772,929 |
| 1990 | D | 50.4% | 47.8% | 1,808,045 |
| 1988 | R | 40.9% | 56.2% | 2,093,953 |
| 1984 | R | 41.3% | 58.1% | 2,066,143 |
| 1982 | R | 46.6% | 52.6% | 1,804,675 |
| 1978 | R | 40.4% | 56.6% | 1,580,622 |
| 1976 | D | 67.5% | 25.0% | 1,912,020 |
Demographics
Minnesota's 2nd congressional district covers the southern suburbs of the Twin Cities — most of Dakota and Scott counties, including Eagan, Apple Valley, Lakeville, Burnsville, and Shakopee — plus rural Goodhue and Rice counties to the south. About 727,000 people live in the district. The seat is currently held by Angie Craig, first elected in 2018 after the retirement of John Kline (R), who held it from 2003 through 2019. Presidential margins have toggled within a five-point window for two decades: R+5 in 2004, D+2 in 2008, R+1 in 2012, R+1 in 2016, D+7 in 2020, D+5 in 2024. No party has won the district by double digits since 1996. Total turnout in 2024 was 422,648, virtually unchanged from 2020 (419,365). The district's bellwether character is rooted in its suburban-exurban mix: precincts in the closer-in Eagan and Burnsville townships have trended Democratic over the last decade while exurban Rice County precincts have trended Republican, leaving the aggregate margin nearly stationary.
The Democratic margin in Minnesota 2nd Congressional District has rarely exceeded thirty-seven points in modern history; the Republican margin has rarely exceeded forty-two points. 2024 delivered the district to the Democratic candidate by five points.
Its demographics resemble the country more than they resemble most districts. A 76% non-Hispanic-white share, a 6% poverty rate, and a median household income of $108,139 — all within the broad national range.
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Congressional District 2, Minnesota. Akashic. https://akashic.app/cd/2702/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.