HarrisDemocratic46.1%31,869TrumpRepublican51.5%35,586KennedyIndependent0.8%561
R+5.4- Lead
- 3,717
- Total
- 69,160
- vs nation
- R+3.9
- Turnout
- 87.1%
Akashiccounty
Carver County, MN
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
President results by year
2024 turnout 87.1% of 79,869 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic46.4%30,774TrumpRepublican51.2%34,009JorgensenLibertarian1.2%822
R+4.9- Lead
- 3,235
- Total
- 66,361
- vs nation
- R+9.3
- Turnout
- 90.3%
ClintonDemocratic38.6%21,508TrumpRepublican52.2%29,056JohnsonLibertarian4.4%2,461
R+13.6- Lead
- 7,548
- Total
- 55,696
- vs nation
- R+15.6
- Turnout
- 82.9%
ObamaDemocratic39.2%20,745RomneyRepublican58.9%31,155GRAYLibertarian1.0%555
R+19.7- Lead
- 10,410
- Total
- 52,899
- vs nation
- R+23.5
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic41.6%20,654McCainRepublican56.7%28,156OtherAll other candidates1.8%873
R+15.1- Lead
- 7,502
- Total
- 49,683
- vs nation
- R+22.4
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic36.2%16,456BushRepublican62.8%28,510OtherAll other candidates1.0%445
R+26.5- Lead
- 12,054
- Total
- 45,411
- vs nation
- R+24.1
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic35.6%12,462BushRepublican59.4%20,790NaderGreen3.9%1,381
R+23.8- Lead
- 8,328
- Total
- 35,021
- vs nation
- R+24.3
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic41.0%11,554DoleRepublican44.0%12,380PerotReform13.4%3,781
R+2.9- Lead
- 826
- Total
- 28,168
- vs nation
- R+11.5
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+5.4MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 110,0412024 5-year
- Median household income
- $125,9462024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 85.5%2024 5-year
- Black
- 1.6%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 5.1%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+26.4 in 1932MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+77.6 in 1920MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Scott County, MN · twin score 94.8
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 87.1%69,548 participants ÷ 79,869 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +19.9 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- -0.0 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 67.2%–71.8%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 56,289 | 67,912 | 82.9% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 51,452 | 71,156 | 72.3% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 66,620 | 73,748 | 90.3% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 54,438 | 77,311 | 70.4% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 69,548 | 79,869 | 87.1% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
71 precincts · 69,160 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -CHASKA W-1 P-2CHASKA W-1 P-2 | 2,303 | 2,132 | 128 | 4,563 | 50.5% | 46.7% | D+3.7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -CARVERCARVER | 1,870 | 1,810 | 99 | 3,779 | 49.5% | 47.9% | D+1.6 |
| Precinct -CHASKA W-4CHASKA W-4 | 1,932 | 1,577 | 91 | 3,600 | 53.7% | 43.8% | D+9.9 |
| Precinct -CHASKA W-3CHASKA W-3 | 1,838 | 1,527 | 100 | 3,465 | 53.0% | 44.1% | D+9.0 |
| Precinct -WACONIA P-3WACONIA P-3 | 1,422 | 1,888 | 83 | 3,393 | 41.9% | 55.6% | R+13.7 |
| Precinct -CHANHASSEN P-3CHANHASSEN P-3 | 1,726 | 1,323 | 96 | 3,145 | 54.9% | 42.1% | D+12.8 |
| Precinct -CHANHASSEN P-4CHANHASSEN P-4 | 1,585 | 1,265 | 62 | 2,912 | 54.4% | 43.4% | D+11.0 |
| Precinct -CHANHASSEN P-5CHANHASSEN P-5 | 1,593 | 1,229 | 70 | 2,892 | 55.1% | 42.5% | D+12.6 |
| Precinct -CHANHASSEN P-6CHANHASSEN P-6 | 1,544 | 1,259 | 86 | 2,889 | 53.4% | 43.6% | D+9.9 |
| Precinct -WACONIA P-2WACONIA P-2 | 1,243 | 1,521 | 85 | 2,849 | 43.6% | 53.4% | R+9.8 |
| Precinct -WATERTOWNWATERTOWN | 898 | 1,794 | 62 | 2,754 | 32.6% | 65.1% | R+32.5 |
| Precinct -CHANHASSEN P-1CHANHASSEN P-1 | 1,595 | 1,029 | 70 | 2,694 | 59.2% | 38.2% | D+21.0 |
| Precinct -VICTORIA P-2VICTORIA P-2 | 1,273 | 1,350 | 63 | 2,686 | 47.4% | 50.3% | R+2.9 |
| Precinct -CHASKA W-2 P-2CHASKA W-2 P-2 | 1,482 | 1,037 | 89 | 2,608 | 56.8% | 39.8% | D+17.1 |
| Precinct -CHANHASSEN P-2CHANHASSEN P-2 | 1,316 | 1,144 | 70 | 2,530 | 52.0% | 45.2% | D+6.8 |
| Precinct -WACONIA P-1WACONIA P-1 | 1,113 | 1,247 | 57 | 2,417 | 46.0% | 51.6% | R+5.5 |
| Precinct -NORWOOD YOUNG AMERICANORWOOD YOUNG AMERICA | 731 | 1,471 | 42 | 2,244 | 32.6% | 65.6% | R+33.0 |
| Precinct -VICTORIA P-4VICTORIA P-4 | 1,026 | 1,127 | 38 | 2,191 | 46.8% | 51.4% | R+4.6 |
| Precinct -CHASKA W-2 P-1CHASKA W-2 P-1 | 970 | 1,021 | 39 | 2,030 | 47.8% | 50.3% | R+2.5 |
| Precinct -MAYERMAYER | 400 | 1,053 | 24 | 1,477 | 27.1% | 71.3% | R+44.2 |
| Precinct -VICTORIA P-3VICTORIA P-3 | 590 | 792 | 25 | 1,407 | 41.9% | 56.3% | R+14.4 |
| Precinct -COLOGNECOLOGNE | 467 | 832 | 29 | 1,328 | 35.2% | 62.7% | R+27.5 |
| Precinct -VICTORIA P-1VICTORIA P-1 | 601 | 638 | 29 | 1,268 | 47.4% | 50.3% | R+2.9 |
| Precinct -LAKETOWN TWPLAKETOWN TWP | 416 | 773 | 23 | 1,212 | 34.3% | 63.8% | R+29.5 |
| Precinct -DAHLGREN TWPDAHLGREN TWP | 306 | 592 | 17 | 915 | 33.4% | 64.7% | R+31.3 |
| Precinct -WATERTOWN TWPWATERTOWN TWP | 254 | 604 | 19 | 877 | 29.0% | 68.9% | R+39.9 |
| Precinct -WACONIA TWPWACONIA TWP | 227 | 545 | 19 | 791 | 28.7% | 68.9% | R+40.2 |
| Precinct -HOLLYWOOD TWPHOLLYWOOD TWP | 163 | 521 | 11 | 695 | 23.5% | 75.0% | R+51.5 |
| Precinct -SAN FRANCISCO TWPSAN FRANCISCO TWP | 195 | 428 | 14 | 637 | 30.6% | 67.2% | R+36.6 |
| Precinct -CAMDEN TWPCAMDEN TWP | 141 | 462 | 12 | 615 | 22.9% | 75.1% | R+52.2 |
| Precinct -BENTON TWPBENTON TWP | 112 | 366 | 16 | 494 | 22.7% | 74.1% | R+51.4 |
| Precinct -YOUNG AMERICA TWPYOUNG AMERICA TWP | 97 | 358 | 7 | 462 | 21.0% | 77.5% | R+56.5 |
| Precinct -HAMBURGHAMBURG | 65 | 252 | 7 | 324 | 20.1% | 77.8% | R+57.7 |
| Precinct -CHASKA W-1 P-1CHASKA W-1 P-1 | 144 | 124 | 11 | 279 | 51.6% | 44.4% | D+7.2 |
| Precinct -VICTORIA P-5VICTORIA P-5 | 124 | 148 | 7 | 279 | 44.4% | 53.0% | R+8.6 |
| Precinct -NEW GERMANYNEW GERMANY | 50 | 187 | 3 | 240 | 20.8% | 77.9% | R+57.1 |
| Precinct -HANCOCK TWPHANCOCK TWP | 57 | 160 | 2 | 219 | 26.0% | 73.1% | R+47.0 |
| Benton Twp. Voting District27_270190005 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Camden Twp. Voting District27_270190010 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Carver Voting District27_270190015 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Chanhassen P-127_270190020 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Chanhassen P-227_270190025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Chanhassen P-327_270190030 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Chanhassen P-427_270190035 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Chanhassen P-527_270190036 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Chanhassen P-627_270190037 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Chanhassen P-727_270190038 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Chaska W-1 P-127_270190040 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Chaska W-1 P-227_270190043 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Chaska W-2 P-127_270190045 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Chaska W-2 P-227_270190047 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Chaska W-327_270190050 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Chaska W-427_270190055 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Cologne Voting District27_270190065 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Dahlgren Twp. Voting District27_270190070 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Hamburg Voting District27_270190075 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Hancock Twp. Voting District27_270190080 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Hollywood Twp. Voting District27_270190085 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Laketown Twp. Voting District27_270190090 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Mayer Voting District27_270190095 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| New Germany Voting District27_270190100 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Norwood Young America Voting District27_270190105 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| San Francisco Twp. Voting District27_270190110 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Victoria P-127_270190115 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Victoria P-227_270190117 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Waconia Twp. Voting District27_270190130 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Waconia W-127_270190120 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Waconia W-227_270190125 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Watertown Twp. Voting District27_270190140 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Watertown Voting District27_270190135 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Young America Twp. Voting District27_270190150 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | +9.2% |
| 1896 | −18.5% |
| 1900 | −21.1% |
| 1904 | −43.2% |
| 1908 | −22.0% |
| 1912 | +9.6% |
| 1916 | −33.3% |
| 1920 | −77.6% |
| 1924 | −33.7% |
| 1928 | −15.9% |
| 1932 | +26.4% |
| 1936 | −3.9% |
| 1940 | −57.5% |
| 1944 | −57.3% |
| 1948 | −23.6% |
| 1952 | −51.0% |
| 1956 | −45.3% |
| 1960 | −22.0% |
| 1964 | −2.9% |
| 1968 | −17.5% |
| 1972 | −26.6% |
| 1976 | −3.8% |
| 1980 | −17.8% |
| 1984 | −27.8% |
| 1988 | −19.4% |
| 1992 | −7.0% |
| 1996 | −2.9% |
| 2000 | −23.8% |
| 2004 | −26.5% |
| 2008 | −15.1% |
| 2012 | −19.7% |
| 2016 | −13.6% |
| 2020 | −4.9% |
| 2024 | −5.4% |
DemocraticRepublican
Federal and statewide elections · 1 House · 38 Senate · 2 Senate special · 12 governor
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | R | 42.7%28,637 | 57.3%38,401 | 67,038 |
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
Registered voters
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 64,655 |
| 2018 | 65,210 |
| 2020 | 72,991 |
| 2022 | 74,048 |
| 2024 | 79,297 |
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+1,139 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net +10,788 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $105,522 in average income, against $149,239 for residents who stayed — 29% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean D+23.0 on average — 28 points more Democratic-leaning than Carver County, MN itself (R+5.4).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Hennepin County, MN1,553D+42.4
- Scott County, MN341R+8.5
- Dakota County, MN158D+12.8
- McLeod County, MN105R+37.8
- Ramsey County, MN95D+43.1
- Wright County, MN94R+29.2
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Hennepin County, MN1,143
- Scott County, MN249
- Wright County, MN145
- Dakota County, MN140
- McLeod County, MN126
- Ramsey County, MN104
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +661 |
| 2012 | +318 |
| 2013 | +1,041 |
| 2014 | +944 |
| 2015 | +495 |
| 2016 | +967 |
| 2017 | +1,059 |
| 2018 | +716 |
| 2019 | +905 |
| 2021 | +997 |
| 2022 | +623 |
| 2023 | +162 |
| 2024 | +761 |
| 2025 | +1,139 |
Carver County sits on the southwestern edge of the Minneapolis–St. Paul metro, where rapid population growth since 2000 has gradually compressed what was once a double-digit Republican presidential margin to single digits by 2024.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 26.4 points in 1932 and a Republican high of 77.6 points in 1920. The 2024 margin was 5.4 points.
A population of 110,041, a 86% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $125,946 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Scott County and Washington County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Scott County
Minnesota
94.8twin score
median income12-yr trendcollege share≠ Swedish ancestry
Washington County
Minnesota
87.6twin score
12-yr trendmedian incomecollege share≠ % Asian
Dakota County
Minnesota
85.8twin score
12-yr trendcollege share2020–2024 trajectory≠ median income
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Carver County, Minnesota. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/27019/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Cities & towns in Carver County
Minnesota at the ballot boxAll elections →
Frequently asked questions
How did Carver County, Minnesota vote in 2024?
In 2024, Carver County, Minnesota voted Republican by 5.4 points (R+5.4), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 69,160 votes cast, 31,869 went Democratic and 35,586 went Republican.
When did Carver County, Minnesota last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Carver County, Minnesota voted Democratic was 1932.
How many people live in Carver County, Minnesota?
Carver County, Minnesota has a population of 110,041 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Carver County, Minnesota?
Median household income in Carver County, Minnesota is $125,946 — above the national median of $80,734. The Minnesota state median is $89,062.
What is the political history of Carver County, Minnesota?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Carver County, Minnesota from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 2 went Democratic and 30 went Republican.