HarrisDemocratic47.6%9,905TrumpRepublican50.1%10,435KennedyIndependent1.1%229
R+2.5- Lead
- 530
- Total
- 20,815
- vs nation
- R+1.1
- Turnout
- 73.9%
Akashiccounty
Carlton County, MN
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
President results by year
2024 turnout 73.9% of 28,298 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic49.6%10,098TrumpRepublican48.1%9,791JorgensenLibertarian1.1%231
D+1.5- Lead
- 307
- Total
- 20,369
- vs nation
- R+2.9
- Turnout
- 74.7%
ClintonDemocratic46.5%8,460TrumpRepublican44.8%8,160JohnsonLibertarian3.9%703
D+1.6- Lead
- 300
- Total
- 18,211
- vs nation
- R+0.4
- Turnout
- 67.5%
ObamaDemocratic61.8%11,389RomneyRepublican35.7%6,586GRAYLibertarian1.0%178
D+26.1- Lead
- 4,803
- Total
- 18,436
- vs nation
- D+22.2
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic62.3%11,501McCainRepublican35.5%6,549OtherAll other candidates2.2%399
D+26.8- Lead
- 4,952
- Total
- 18,449
- vs nation
- D+19.6
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic62.5%11,462BushRepublican36.2%6,642OtherAll other candidates1.3%230
D+26.3- Lead
- 4,820
- Total
- 18,334
- vs nation
- D+28.7
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic57.2%8,620BushRepublican37.0%5,578NaderGreen4.2%634
D+20.2- Lead
- 3,042
- Total
- 15,081
- vs nation
- D+19.7
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic57.9%8,052DoleRepublican29.0%4,034PerotReform11.4%1,591
D+28.9- Lead
- 4,018
- Total
- 13,915
- vs nation
- D+20.4
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+2.5MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 36,5182024 5-year
- Median household income
- $80,5732024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 86.9%2024 5-year
- Black
- 2.2%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 1.9%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+54.8 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+64.7 in 1904MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Douglas County, WI · twin score 97.0
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 73.9%20,904 participants ÷ 28,298 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +17.7 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- -2.2 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 56.1%–61.5%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 18,397 | 27,249 | 67.5% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 16,510 | 27,309 | 60.5% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 20,465 | 27,397 | 74.7% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 16,002 | 28,086 | 57.0% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 20,904 | 28,298 | 73.9% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
77 precincts · 20,815 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -THOMSON TWPTHOMSON TWP | 1,588 | 1,791 | 84 | 3,463 | 45.9% | 51.7% | R+5.9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -TWIN LAKES TWPTWIN LAKES TWP | 681 | 794 | 22 | 1,497 | 45.5% | 53.0% | R+7.5 |
| Precinct -CLOQUET W-1CLOQUET W-1 | 761 | 647 | 27 | 1,435 | 53.0% | 45.1% | D+7.9 |
| Precinct -CLOQUET W-4CLOQUET W-4 | 683 | 618 | 27 | 1,328 | 51.4% | 46.5% | D+4.9 |
| Precinct -CLOQUET W-3CLOQUET W-3 | 626 | 579 | 25 | 1,230 | 50.9% | 47.1% | D+3.8 |
| Precinct -CLOQUET W-2CLOQUET W-2 | 600 | 508 | 25 | 1,133 | 53.0% | 44.8% | D+8.1 |
| Precinct -CLOQUET W-5 P-1CLOQUET W-5 P-1 | 573 | 529 | 27 | 1,129 | 50.8% | 46.9% | D+3.9 |
| Precinct -MOOSE LAKEMOOSE LAKE | 493 | 424 | 36 | 953 | 51.7% | 44.5% | D+7.2 |
| Precinct -BARNUM TWPBARNUM TWP | 330 | 421 | 22 | 773 | 42.7% | 54.5% | R+11.8 |
| Precinct -BLACKHOOF TWPBLACKHOOF TWP | 270 | 346 | 16 | 632 | 42.7% | 54.7% | R+12.0 |
| Precinct -PERCH LAKE TWPPERCH LAKE TWP | 349 | 271 | 6 | 626 | 55.8% | 43.3% | D+12.5 |
| Precinct -MOOSE LAKE TWPMOOSE LAKE TWP | 260 | 354 | 11 | 625 | 41.6% | 56.6% | R+15.0 |
| Precinct -SCANLONSCANLON | 307 | 277 | 12 | 596 | 51.5% | 46.5% | D+5.0 |
| Precinct -CARLTON P-1CARLTON P-1 | 324 | 234 | 16 | 574 | 56.4% | 40.8% | D+15.7 |
| Precinct -SILVER BROOK TWPSILVER BROOK TWP | 168 | 274 | 11 | 453 | 37.1% | 60.5% | R+23.4 |
| Precinct -MAHTOWA TWPMAHTOWA TWP | 176 | 217 | 10 | 403 | 43.7% | 53.8% | R+10.2 |
| Precinct -EAGLE TWPEAGLE TWP | 157 | 206 | 6 | 369 | 42.5% | 55.8% | R+13.3 |
| Precinct -CLOQUET W-5 P-2CLOQUET W-5 P-2 | 255 | 73 | 7 | 335 | 76.1% | 21.8% | D+54.3 |
| Precinct -WRENSHALLWRENSHALL | 150 | 152 | 4 | 306 | 49.0% | 49.7% | R+0.7 |
| Precinct -WRENSHALL TWPWRENSHALL TWP | 145 | 149 | 2 | 296 | 49.0% | 50.3% | R+1.4 |
| Precinct -ATKINSON TWPATKINSON TWP | 106 | 179 | 8 | 293 | 36.2% | 61.1% | R+24.9 |
| Precinct -SKELTON TWPSKELTON TWP | 117 | 155 | 11 | 283 | 41.3% | 54.8% | R+13.4 |
| Precinct -SILVER TWPSILVER TWP | 86 | 183 | 3 | 272 | 31.6% | 67.3% | R+35.7 |
| Precinct -BARNUMBARNUM | 114 | 139 | 6 | 259 | 44.0% | 53.7% | R+9.7 |
| Precinct -SAWYER UNORGSAWYER UNORG | 71 | 118 | 7 | 196 | 36.2% | 60.2% | R+24.0 |
| Precinct -RED CLOVER UNORGRED CLOVER UNORG | 65 | 101 | 6 | 172 | 37.8% | 58.7% | R+20.9 |
| Precinct -KALEVALA TWPKALEVALA TWP | 58 | 103 | 9 | 170 | 34.1% | 60.6% | R+26.5 |
| Precinct -HOLYOKE TWPHOLYOKE TWP | 47 | 94 | 6 | 147 | 32.0% | 63.9% | R+32.0 |
| Precinct -LAKEVIEW TWPLAKEVIEW TWP | 59 | 74 | 1 | 134 | 44.0% | 55.2% | R+11.2 |
| Precinct -CROMWELLCROMWELL | 59 | 59 | 4 | 122 | 48.4% | 48.4% | Exact tie |
| Precinct -CLEAR CREEK UNORGCLEAR CREEK UNORG | 39 | 57 | 1 | 97 | 40.2% | 58.8% | R+18.6 |
| Precinct -CORONA UNORGCORONA UNORG | 31 | 56 | 8 | 95 | 32.6% | 58.9% | R+26.3 |
| Precinct -SPLIT ROCK TWPSPLIT ROCK TWP | 35 | 55 | 4 | 94 | 37.2% | 58.5% | R+21.3 |
| Precinct -AUTOMBA TWPAUTOMBA TWP | 33 | 56 | 4 | 93 | 35.5% | 60.2% | R+24.7 |
| Precinct -KETTLE RIVERKETTLE RIVER | 41 | 49 | 1 | 91 | 45.1% | 53.8% | R+8.8 |
| Precinct -BESEMAN TWPBESEMAN TWP | 19 | 55 | 0 | 74 | 25.7% | 74.3% | R+48.6 |
| Precinct -WRIGHTWRIGHT | 22 | 35 | 0 | 57 | 38.6% | 61.4% | R+22.8 |
| Precinct -PROGRESS UNORGPROGRESS UNORG | 7 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 70.0% | 30.0% | D+40.0 |
| Atkinson Twp. Voting District27_270170005 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Automba Twp. Voting District27_270170010 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Barnum Twp. Voting District27_270170020 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Barnum Voting District27_270170015 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Beseman Twp. Voting District27_270170025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Blackhoof Twp. Voting District27_270170030 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Carlton Voting District27_270170035 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Clear Creek Unorg. Voting District27_270170068 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Cloquet W-127_270170040 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Cloquet W-227_270170045 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Cloquet W-327_270170050 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Cloquet W-427_270170055 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Cloquet W-5 P-127_270170060 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Cloquet W-5 P-227_270170065 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Corona Unorg. Voting District27_270170070 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Cromwell Voting District27_270170075 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Eagle Twp. Voting District27_270170080 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Holyoke Twp. Voting District27_270170085 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Kalevala Twp. Voting District27_270170090 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Kettle River Voting District27_270170095 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Lakeview Twp. Voting District27_270170100 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Mahtowa Twp. Voting District27_270170105 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Moose Lake Twp. Voting District27_270170115 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Moose Lake Voting District27_270170110 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Perch Lake Twp. Voting District27_270170120 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Progress Unorg. Voting District27_270170118 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Red Clover Unorg. Voting District27_270170125 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Sawyer Unorg. Voting District27_270170130 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Scanlon Voting District27_270170135 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Silver Brook Twp. Voting District27_270170140 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Silver Twp. Voting District27_270170145 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Skelton Twp. Voting District27_270170150 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Split Rock Twp. Voting District27_270170155 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Thomson Twp. Voting District27_270170165 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Thomson Voting District27_270170160 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Twin Lakes Twp. Voting District27_270170170 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Wrenshall Twp. Voting District27_270170180 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Wrenshall Voting District27_270170175 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Wright Voting District27_270170185 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | −29.1% |
| 1896 | −36.0% |
| 1900 | −40.1% |
| 1904 | −64.7% |
| 1908 | −41.1% |
| 1912 | +13.5% |
| 1916 | +0.7% |
| 1920 | −35.3% |
| 1924 | −45.0% |
| 1928 | −34.1% |
| 1932 | +3.2% |
| 1936 | +52.5% |
| 1940 | +35.2% |
| 1944 | +39.5% |
| 1948 | +41.6% |
| 1952 | +21.1% |
| 1956 | +21.7% |
| 1960 | +24.2% |
| 1964 | +54.8% |
| 1968 | +45.9% |
| 1972 | +13.1% |
| 1976 | +34.9% |
| 1980 | +27.4% |
| 1984 | +30.4% |
| 1988 | +30.7% |
| 1992 | +25.9% |
| 1996 | +28.9% |
| 2000 | +20.2% |
| 2004 | +26.3% |
| 2008 | +26.8% |
| 2012 | +26.1% |
| 2016 | +1.6% |
| 2020 | +1.5% |
| 2024 | −2.5% |
DemocraticRepublican
Federal and statewide elections · 3 House · 38 Senate · 2 Senate special · 12 governor
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
Registered voters
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 21,621 |
| 2018 | 21,387 |
| 2020 | 23,274 |
| 2022 | 22,980 |
| 2024 | 24,385 |
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+90 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net +1,541 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $62,766 in average income, against $74,810 for residents who stayed — 16% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean D+12.2 on average — 15 points more Democratic-leaning than Carlton County, MN itself (R+2.5).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- St. Louis County, MN374D+13.7
- Pine County, MN45R+35.1
- Douglas County, WI44D+5.3
- Hennepin County, MN42D+42.4
- Ramsey County, MN20D+43.1
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- St. Louis County, MN303
- Pine County, MN55
- Douglas County, WI52
- Hennepin County, MN50
- Ramsey County, MN26
- Anoka County, MN20
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +7 |
| 2012 | −221 |
| 2013 | +34 |
| 2014 | +115 |
| 2015 | +60 |
| 2016 | +171 |
| 2017 | −31 |
| 2018 | +302 |
| 2019 | +50 |
| 2021 | +334 |
| 2022 | +406 |
| 2023 | +95 |
| 2024 | +129 |
| 2025 | +90 |
Carlton County's economy was long anchored by paper mills and the Fond du Lac Band of Lake Superior Chippewa, producing reliably Democratic margins. By 2024 it flipped narrowly Republican, a shift that mirrors working-class realignment across Minnesota's Iron Range corridor.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 54.8 points in 1964 and a Republican high of 64.7 points in 1904. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 4.1 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 2.5 points.
A population of 36,518, a 87% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $80,573 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Douglas County and St. Louis County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Douglas County
Wisconsin
97.0twin score
2000–2012 trajectory≠ French ancestry
St. Louis County
Minnesota
94.1twin score
2000–2012 trajectory≠ population scale
Lake County
Minnesota
92.5twin score
2000–2012 trajectory≠ median age
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Carlton County, Minnesota. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/27017/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
Embed this page
A live widget for your site — no API key, attribution built in, CC BY 4.0. All widgets & sizes →
Cities & towns in Carlton County
Minnesota at the ballot boxAll elections →
Frequently asked questions
How did Carlton County, Minnesota vote in 2024?
In 2024, Carlton County, Minnesota voted Republican by 2.5 points (R+2.5), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 20,815 votes cast, 9,905 went Democratic and 10,435 went Republican.
When did Carlton County, Minnesota last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Carlton County, Minnesota voted Democratic was 2020.
How many people live in Carlton County, Minnesota?
Carlton County, Minnesota has a population of 36,518 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Carlton County, Minnesota?
Median household income in Carlton County, Minnesota is $80,573 — below the national median of $80,734. The Minnesota state median is $89,062.
What is the political history of Carlton County, Minnesota?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Carlton County, Minnesota from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 24 went Democratic and 9 went Republican.