- Lead
- 2,238
- Total
- 49,990
- vs nation
- R+3.0
Minnesota 54th State Senate District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 1,280
- Total
- 48,307
- vs nation
- R+7.1
- Lead
- 5,309
- Total
- 41,035
- vs nation
- R+15.0
- Lead
- 4,819
- Total
- 39,142
- vs nation
- R+16.2
- Lead
- 3,206
- Total
- 36,626
- vs nation
- R+16.0
- Lead
- 5,755
- Total
- 33,065
- vs nation
- R+14.9
- Lead
- 2,951
- Total
- 23,950
- vs nation
- R+12.8
- Lead
- 1,487
- Total
- 18,172
- vs nation
- R+0.3
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+4.5MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 85,8902024 5-year
- Population density
- 676 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 127 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $114,1482024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 72.8%2024 5-year
- Black
- 5.9%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 7.6%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+63.4 in 1932MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+38.0 in 1920MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State Senate District 57, MN · twin score 92.8
presidential history
Party record book
Minnesota 54th State Senate District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Franklin D. Roosevelt1932
81.3%
2,760 votes · D+63.4 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Samuel J. Tilden, 1876 · 73.6%
Republican
Warren G. Harding1920
67.7%
1,598 votes · R+38.0 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · George W. Bush, 2004 · 58.2%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Kamala Harris2024
23,297votes
46.6% of the vote · R+4.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · 22,938 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
25,535votes
51.1% of the vote · R+4.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 24,218 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Al Smith1928
+63.6pts D vs U.S.
Place D+46.1 · U.S. R+17.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1932 · +45.6 pts
Republican
Wendell Willkie1940
+25.9pts R vs U.S.
Place R+16.0 · U.S. D+9.9 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Mitt Romney, 2012 · +16.2 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | R | 49.8%23,707 | 50.2%23,939 | 47,646 |
| 2020 | R | 43.5%19,478 | 56.5%25,254 | 44,732 |
Minnesota Senate District 54 sits in the outer Twin Cities metro fringe, where suburban-to-exurban population growth has gradually redrawn the electorate, producing one of the sharper recent swings in the region.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 63.4 points in 1932 and a Republican high of 38.0 points in 1920. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 1.8 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 4.5 points.
A population of 85,890, a 73% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $114,148 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State Senate District 57 and State Senate District 48.
The state-senate districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Minnesota 54th State Senate District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-upper/27054/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.