akashic
1876–2024
Bay County, Michigan
Bay County·Michigan

Bay County votes the way the country votes.

Once a swing bellwether, Bay County has shifted sharply toward Republicans

18762024·38 elections
Bay County, Michigan · Chad Johnson from Lake Linden, MI, USA · Wikimedia Commons
Latest
R+15
in 2024
Archetype
Bellwether
since the recent cycles
Population
103,008
2024 ACS
Most similar
Columbia County
OR · similarity 0.97
86 precincts · 61,338 votes cast
Trump · R+15
Margin
Turnout
Harris +50
Trump +50
Real precinct boundaries. Hover for vote totals.
YearWonMarginDemocraticRepublicanTotal
2024R
−14.7%
25,76734,79261,338
2020R
−11.6%
26,15133,12560,255
2016R
−12.6%
21,64228,32853,274
2012D
+5.5%
27,87724,91153,586
2008D
+15.3%
32,58923,79557,428
2004D
+9.8%
31,04925,44857,059
2000D
+11.8%
28,25122,15051,636
1996D
+23.8%
27,83516,03849,603
1992D
+18.6%
26,49216,38354,355
1988D
+15.3%
28,22520,71049,152
1984R
−7.3%
22,59726,19849,030
1980R
−1.5%
24,51725,33154,592
1976D
+5.6%
25,95823,17449,689
1972R
−3.0%
21,71223,09446,118
1968D
+6.2%
21,41018,77942,567
1964D
+42.8%
29,75411,89641,706
1960D
+4.7%
22,99820,90944,011
1956R
−21.1%
15,30123,51938,948
1952R
−17.4%
14,11320,08734,396
1948D
+3.7%
14,34913,32127,997
1944D
+0.5%
15,60215,45931,204
1940D
+1.0%
14,90214,61829,587
1936D
+20.3%
13,7898,72924,885
1932D
+19.5%
14,7089,81625,092
1928R
−14.0%
9,39512,46721,917
1924R
−39.1%
5,88114,86122,951
1920R
−32.3%
7,01113,93321,460
1916R
−5.4%
5,9966,70813,130
1912D
+3.3%
2,9902,62511,205
1908R
−21.8%
4,2236,76011,611
1904R
−40.1%
3,1427,60911,148
1900R
−11.7%
5,0816,46211,836
1896D
+2.1%
6,2966,03712,553
1892D
+10.6%
5,7144,58710,678
1888
No data
1884
No data
1880
No data
1876
No data
Demographics
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
American
100.0%
African American
1.0%
Multiple ancestry combinations reported; no single grouping above 1%.
Sample size too small to break out by ancestry reliably.
American Indian, Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian, and Pacific Islander combined.
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
0.0%
speak English only
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Catholic & Orthodox
19.9%
Mainline Protestant
12.7%
Other Christian
3.9%
Methodist
1.3%
Pentecostal & Holiness
1.0%
Baptist
0.9%
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 60.3% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.

Bay County's blue-collar manufacturing heritage once made it a reliable Democratic anchor on Saginaw Bay, but the county has moved roughly 20 points rightward over the past decade, mirroring broader shifts among working-class voters in the Great Lakes region.

The Democratic margin in Bay County has rarely exceeded forty-three points in modern history; the Republican margin has rarely exceeded forty points. 2024 delivered the county to the Republican candidate by fifteen points.

Bay County's demographics resemble the country more than they resemble most counties. A 91% non-Hispanic-white share, a 13% poverty rate, and a median household income of $61,763 — all within the broad national range. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Columbia County and Lee County.