HarrisDemocratic42.0%25,767TrumpRepublican56.7%34,792KennedyIndependent0.5%288
R+14.7- Lead
- 9,025
- Total
- 61,338
- vs nation
- R+13.2
- Turnout
- 74.9%
Akashiccounty
Bay County, MI
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
President results by year
2024 turnout 74.9% of 82,474 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic43.4%26,151TrumpRepublican55.0%33,125JorgensenLibertarian1.1%691
R+11.6- Lead
- 6,974
- Total
- 60,255
- vs nation
- R+16.0
- Turnout
- 74.7%
ClintonDemocratic40.6%21,642TrumpRepublican53.2%28,328JohnsonLibertarian4.1%2,189
R+12.6- Lead
- 6,686
- Total
- 53,274
- vs nation
- R+14.6
- Turnout
- 64.7%
ObamaDemocratic52.0%27,877RomneyRepublican46.5%24,911SteinGreen0.5%269
D+5.5- Lead
- 2,966
- Total
- 53,586
- vs nation
- D+1.7
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic56.7%32,589McCainRepublican41.4%23,795OtherAll other candidates1.8%1,044
D+15.3- Lead
- 8,794
- Total
- 57,428
- vs nation
- D+8.0
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic54.4%31,049BushRepublican44.6%25,448OtherAll other candidates1.0%562
D+9.8- Lead
- 5,601
- Total
- 57,059
- vs nation
- D+12.3
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic54.7%28,251BushRepublican42.9%22,150NaderGreen1.9%972
D+11.8- Lead
- 6,101
- Total
- 51,636
- vs nation
- D+11.3
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic56.1%27,835DoleRepublican32.3%16,038PerotReform10.9%5,410
D+23.8- Lead
- 11,797
- Total
- 49,603
- vs nation
- D+15.3
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+14.7MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 103,0082024 5-year
- Median household income
- $61,7632024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 88.2%2024 5-year
- Black
- 1.0%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 5.9%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+42.8 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+40.1 in 1904MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Monroe County, MI · twin score 88.8
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 74.9%61,749 participants ÷ 82,474 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +14.3 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- -0.9 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 60.6%–64.3%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 53,928 | 83,288 | 64.7% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 47,740 | 82,557 | 57.8% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 61,346 | 82,071 | 74.7% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 50,150 | 82,934 | 60.5% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 61,749 | 82,474 | 74.9% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
84 precincts · 59,440 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -Kawkawlin Township, Precinct 1Kawkawlin Township, Precinct 1 | 976 | 1,915 | 36 | 2,927 | 33.3% | 65.4% | R+32.1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -Monitor Township, Precinct 3Monitor Township, Precinct 3 | 985 | 1,864 | 36 | 2,885 | 34.1% | 64.6% | R+30.5 |
| Precinct -Monitor Township, Precinct 2Monitor Township, Precinct 2 | 1,175 | 1,454 | 32 | 2,661 | 44.2% | 54.6% | R+10.5 |
| Precinct -Frankenlust Township, Precinct 1Frankenlust Township, Precinct 1 | 879 | 1,579 | 35 | 2,493 | 35.3% | 63.3% | R+28.1 |
| Precinct -City of Bay City, Ward 5, Precinct 1City of Bay City, Ward 5, Precinct 1 | 1,092 | 988 | 26 | 2,106 | 51.9% | 46.9% | D+4.9 |
| Precinct -Williams Township, Precinct 1Williams Township, Precinct 1 | 695 | 1,373 | 26 | 2,094 | 33.2% | 65.6% | R+32.4 |
| Precinct -Bangor Township, Precinct 5Bangor Township, Precinct 5 | 819 | 1,128 | 25 | 1,972 | 41.5% | 57.2% | R+15.7 |
| Precinct -City of Bay City, Ward 9, Precinct 1City of Bay City, Ward 9, Precinct 1 | 918 | 974 | 25 | 1,917 | 47.9% | 50.8% | R+2.9 |
| Precinct -City of Bay City, Ward 2, Precinct 1City of Bay City, Ward 2, Precinct 1 | 1,172 | 720 | 20 | 1,912 | 61.3% | 37.7% | D+23.6 |
| Precinct -City of Bay City, Ward 1, Precinct 1City of Bay City, Ward 1, Precinct 1 | 1,036 | 807 | 27 | 1,870 | 55.4% | 43.2% | D+12.2 |
| Precinct -City of Bay City, Ward 7, Precinct 1City of Bay City, Ward 7, Precinct 1 | 941 | 897 | 23 | 1,861 | 50.6% | 48.2% | D+2.4 |
| Precinct -City of Bay City, Ward 4, Precinct 1City of Bay City, Ward 4, Precinct 1 | 964 | 802 | 41 | 1,807 | 53.3% | 44.4% | D+9.0 |
| Precinct -Beaver Township, Precinct 1Beaver Township, Precinct 1 | 510 | 1,277 | 17 | 1,804 | 28.3% | 70.8% | R+42.5 |
| Precinct -City of Bay City, Ward 8, Precinct 1City of Bay City, Ward 8, Precinct 1 | 894 | 886 | 24 | 1,804 | 49.6% | 49.1% | D+0.4 |
| Precinct -City of Bay City, Ward 6, Precinct 1City of Bay City, Ward 6, Precinct 1 | 868 | 829 | 26 | 1,723 | 50.4% | 48.1% | D+2.3 |
| Precinct -City of Bay City, Ward 3, Precinct 1City of Bay City, Ward 3, Precinct 1 | 963 | 727 | 29 | 1,719 | 56.0% | 42.3% | D+13.7 |
| Precinct -Monitor Township, Precinct 1Monitor Township, Precinct 1 | 649 | 911 | 14 | 1,574 | 41.2% | 57.9% | R+16.6 |
| Precinct -Bangor Township, Precinct 6Bangor Township, Precinct 6 | 667 | 818 | 20 | 1,505 | 44.3% | 54.4% | R+10.0 |
| Precinct -Bangor Township, Precinct 2Bangor Township, Precinct 2 | 535 | 887 | 7 | 1,429 | 37.4% | 62.1% | R+24.6 |
| Precinct -Pinconning Township, Precinct 1Pinconning Township, Precinct 1 | 419 | 985 | 16 | 1,420 | 29.5% | 69.4% | R+39.9 |
| Precinct -Bangor Township, Precinct 3Bangor Township, Precinct 3 | 572 | 829 | 16 | 1,417 | 40.4% | 58.5% | R+18.1 |
| Precinct -Hampton Township, Precinct 4Hampton Township, Precinct 4 | 721 | 640 | 27 | 1,388 | 51.9% | 46.1% | D+5.8 |
| Precinct -City of Auburn, Precinct 1City of Auburn, Precinct 1 | 517 | 737 | 26 | 1,280 | 40.4% | 57.6% | R+17.2 |
| Precinct -Bangor Township, Precinct 4Bangor Township, Precinct 4 | 542 | 661 | 19 | 1,222 | 44.4% | 54.1% | R+9.7 |
| Precinct -Portsmouth Township, Precinct 2Portsmouth Township, Precinct 2 | 505 | 678 | 9 | 1,192 | 42.4% | 56.9% | R+14.5 |
| Precinct -Hampton Township, Precinct 2Hampton Township, Precinct 2 | 503 | 680 | 7 | 1,190 | 42.3% | 57.1% | R+14.9 |
| Precinct -Hampton Township, Precinct 3Hampton Township, Precinct 3 | 530 | 624 | 17 | 1,171 | 45.3% | 53.3% | R+8.0 |
| Precinct -City of Essexville, Precinct 2City of Essexville, Precinct 2 | 535 | 586 | 13 | 1,134 | 47.2% | 51.7% | R+4.5 |
| Precinct -Bangor Township, Precinct 1Bangor Township, Precinct 1 | 445 | 670 | 12 | 1,127 | 39.5% | 59.4% | R+20.0 |
| Precinct -City of Essexville, Precinct 1City of Essexville, Precinct 1 | 573 | 524 | 15 | 1,112 | 51.5% | 47.1% | D+4.4 |
| Precinct -Williams Township, Precinct 2Williams Township, Precinct 2 | 382 | 700 | 18 | 1,100 | 34.7% | 63.6% | R+28.9 |
| Precinct -Garfield Township, Precinct 1Garfield Township, Precinct 1 | 311 | 734 | 16 | 1,061 | 29.3% | 69.2% | R+39.9 |
| Precinct -Hampton Township, Precinct 5Hampton Township, Precinct 5 | 398 | 525 | 13 | 936 | 42.5% | 56.1% | R+13.6 |
| Precinct -Portsmouth Township, Precinct 1Portsmouth Township, Precinct 1 | 343 | 579 | 12 | 934 | 36.7% | 62.0% | R+25.3 |
| Precinct -Merritt Township, Precinct 1Merritt Township, Precinct 1 | 224 | 659 | 10 | 893 | 25.1% | 73.8% | R+48.7 |
| Precinct -Mount Forest Township, Precinct 1Mount Forest Township, Precinct 1 | 213 | 631 | 11 | 855 | 24.9% | 73.8% | R+48.9 |
| Precinct -Hampton Township, Precinct 1Hampton Township, Precinct 1 | 316 | 409 | 4 | 729 | 43.3% | 56.1% | R+12.8 |
| Precinct -Gibson Township, Precinct 1Gibson Township, Precinct 1 | 150 | 474 | 7 | 631 | 23.8% | 75.1% | R+51.3 |
| Precinct -City of Pinconning, Precinct 1City of Pinconning, Precinct 1 | 245 | 336 | 4 | 585 | 41.9% | 57.4% | R+15.6 |
| 0170408000001017-04080-00001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 0170512000001017-05120-00001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 0170512000002017-05120-00002 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 0170512000003017-05120-00003 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 0170512000004017-05120-00004 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 0170512000005017-05120-00005 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 0170512000006017-05120-00006 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 0170602001001017-06020-01001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 0170602002001017-06020-02001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 0170602003001017-06020-03001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 0170602004001017-06020-04001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 0170602005001017-06020-05001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 0170602006001017-06020-06001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 0170602007001017-06020-07001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 0170602008001017-06020-08001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 0170602009001017-06020-09001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 0170654000001017-06540-00001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 0172642000001017-26420-00001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 0172642000002017-26420-00002 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 0173018000001017-30180-00001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 0173154000001017-31540-00001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 0173204000001017-32040-00001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 0173626000001017-36260-00001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 0173626000002017-36260-00002 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 0173626000003017-36260-00003 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 0173626000004017-36260-00004 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 0173626000005017-36260-00005 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 0174236000001017-42360-00001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 0174236000002017-42360-00002 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 0175322000001017-53220-00001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 0175378001006017-53780-01006 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 0175498000001017-54980-00001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 0175498000002017-54980-00002 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 0175498000003017-54980-00003 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 0175498000004017-54980-00004 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 0175498000005017-54980-00005 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 0175498000006017-54980-00006 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 0175592000001017-55920-00001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 0176416000001017-64160-00001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 0176418000001017-64180-00001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 0176598000001017-65980-00001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 0176598000002017-65980-00002 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 0178738000001017-87380-00001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 0178738000002017-87380-00002 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 0178738000003017-87380-00003 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | +10.6% |
| 1896 | +2.1% |
| 1900 | −11.7% |
| 1904 | −40.1% |
| 1908 | −21.8% |
| 1912 | +3.3% |
| 1916 | −5.4% |
| 1920 | −32.3% |
| 1924 | −39.1% |
| 1928 | −14.0% |
| 1932 | +19.5% |
| 1936 | +20.3% |
| 1940 | +1.0% |
| 1944 | +0.5% |
| 1948 | +3.7% |
| 1952 | −17.4% |
| 1956 | −21.1% |
| 1960 | +4.7% |
| 1964 | +42.8% |
| 1968 | +6.2% |
| 1972 | −3.0% |
| 1976 | +5.6% |
| 1980 | −1.5% |
| 1984 | −7.3% |
| 1988 | +15.3% |
| 1992 | +18.6% |
| 1996 | +23.8% |
| 2000 | +11.8% |
| 2004 | +9.8% |
| 2008 | +15.3% |
| 2012 | +5.5% |
| 2016 | −12.6% |
| 2020 | −11.6% |
| 2024 | −14.7% |
DemocraticRepublican
Federal and statewide elections · 2 House · 37 Senate · 12 governor
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | R | 48.7%28,075 | 51.3%29,518 | 57,593 |
| 2020 | R | 47.8%27,141 | 52.2%29,583 | 56,724 |
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
Registered voters
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 80,236 |
| 2018 | 79,416 |
| 2020 | 84,901 |
| 2022 | 86,010 |
| 2024 | 87,842 |
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+112 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net −2,349 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $50,904 in average income, against $67,079 for residents who stayed — 24% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+12.3 on average — 2.4 points more Democratic-leaning than Bay County, MI itself (R+14.7).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Saginaw County, MI502R+3.3
- Midland County, MI336R+15.2
- Arenac County, MI95R+40.6
- Tuscola County, MI94R+43.0
- Genesee County, MI84D+4.2
- Oakland County, MI64D+10.6
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Saginaw County, MI480
- Midland County, MI311
- Oakland County, MI102
- Genesee County, MI97
- Arenac County, MI87
- Tuscola County, MI79
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −322 |
| 2012 | −364 |
| 2013 | −76 |
| 2014 | −696 |
| 2015 | −545 |
| 2016 | −638 |
| 2017 | −114 |
| 2018 | −137 |
| 2019 | −384 |
| 2021 | +26 |
| 2022 | +238 |
| 2023 | +386 |
| 2024 | +165 |
| 2025 | +112 |
Bay County's blue-collar manufacturing heritage once made it a reliable Democratic anchor on Saginaw Bay, but the county has moved roughly 20 points rightward over the past decade, mirroring broader shifts among working-class voters in the Great Lakes region.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 42.8 points in 1964 and a Republican high of 40.1 points in 1904. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 3.1 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 14.7 points.
A population of 103,008, a 88% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $61,763 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Monroe County and Alpena County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Monroe County
Michigan
88.8twin score
Polish ancestry2000–2012 trajectory≠ Scottish ancestry
Alpena County
Michigan
84.8twin score
Polish ancestry2000–2004 trajectoryFrench ancestry≠ Scottish ancestry
Portage County
Wisconsin
82.3twin score
2000–2008 trajectoryPolish ancestry≠ college share
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Bay County, Michigan. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/26017/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Cities & towns in Bay County
Michigan at the ballot boxAll elections →
Frequently asked questions
How did Bay County, Michigan vote in 2024?
In 2024, Bay County, Michigan voted Republican by 14.7 points (R+14.7), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 61,338 votes cast, 25,767 went Democratic and 34,792 went Republican.
When did Bay County, Michigan last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Bay County, Michigan voted Democratic was 2012.
How many people live in Bay County, Michigan?
Bay County, Michigan has a population of 103,008 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Bay County, Michigan?
Median household income in Bay County, Michigan is $61,763 — below the national median of $80,734. The Michigan state median is $72,875.
What is the political history of Bay County, Michigan?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Bay County, Michigan from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 18 went Democratic and 15 went Republican.