HarrisDemocratic48.5%16,822TrumpRepublican50.3%17,426OliverLibertarian0.5%158
R+1.7- Lead
- 604
- Total
- 34,658
- vs nation
- R+0.3
- Turnout
- 79.2%
Akashiccounty
Carroll County, NH
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
President results by year
2024 turnout 79.2% of 43,998 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic50.0%16,649TrumpRepublican48.5%16,150JorgensenLibertarian1.3%422
D+1.5- Lead
- 499
- Total
- 33,297
- vs nation
- R+3.0
- Turnout
- 82.5%
ClintonDemocratic43.9%12,987TrumpRepublican49.4%14,635JohnsonLibertarian4.0%1,185
R+5.6- Lead
- 1,648
- Total
- 29,616
- vs nation
- R+7.7
- Turnout
- 77.5%
ObamaDemocratic48.9%13,977RomneyRepublican49.7%14,207JohnsonLibertarian0.9%251
R+0.8- Lead
- 230
- Total
- 28,602
- vs nation
- R+4.7
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic52.6%15,221McCainRepublican46.3%13,387OtherAll other candidates1.0%302
D+6.3- Lead
- 1,834
- Total
- 28,910
- vs nation
- R+0.9
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic47.2%13,319BushRepublican51.8%14,614OtherAll other candidates1.0%289
R+4.6- Lead
- 1,295
- Total
- 28,222
- vs nation
- R+2.1
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic41.3%9,852BushRepublican52.8%12,597NaderGreen4.5%1,086
R+11.5- Lead
- 2,745
- Total
- 23,879
- vs nation
- R+12.0
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic42.8%8,881DoleRepublican44.2%9,168PerotReform11.8%2,445
R+1.4- Lead
- 287
- Total
- 20,763
- vs nation
- R+9.9
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+1.7MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 51,8042024 5-year
- Median household income
- $86,4632024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 94.0%2024 5-year
- Black
- 0.6%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 1.8%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+8.7 in 1912MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+70.8 in 1956MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Lincoln County, ME · twin score 94.0
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 79.2%34,850 participants ÷ 43,998 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +17.3 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- -1.8 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 61.9%–62.6%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 30,075 | 38,798 | 77.5% | B/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 24,402 | 39,583 | 61.6% | B/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 33,515 | 40,645 | 82.5% | B/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 27,805 | 42,699 | 65.1% | B/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 34,850 | 43,998 | 79.2% | B/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:aggregated; allocation share 0.0%; series 292/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:aggregated; allocation share 0.0%; series 296/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:aggregated; allocation share 0.0%; series 300/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:aggregated; allocation share 0.0%; series 305/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:aggregated; allocation share 0.0%; series 310/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
36 precincts · 34,658 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -003-Conway003-Conway | 3,372 | 2,529 | 71 | 5,972 | 56.5% | 42.3% | D+14.1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -003-Wolfeboro003-Wolfeboro | 2,385 | 2,381 | 62 | 4,828 | 49.4% | 49.3% | D+0.1 |
| Precinct -003-Moultonborough003-Moultonborough | 1,692 | 2,182 | 52 | 3,926 | 43.1% | 55.6% | R+12.5 |
| Precinct -003-Wakefield003-Wakefield | 1,258 | 2,239 | 36 | 3,533 | 35.6% | 63.4% | R+27.8 |
| Precinct -003-Ossipee003-Ossipee | 979 | 1,693 | 24 | 2,696 | 36.3% | 62.8% | R+26.5 |
| Precinct -003-Bartlett003-Bartlett | 1,304 | 782 | 27 | 2,113 | 61.7% | 37.0% | D+24.7 |
| Precinct -003-Tuftonboro003-Tuftonboro | 900 | 1,070 | 25 | 1,995 | 45.1% | 53.6% | R+8.5 |
| Precinct -003-Tamworth003-Tamworth | 914 | 922 | 19 | 1,855 | 49.3% | 49.7% | R+0.4 |
| Precinct -003-Madison003-Madison | 939 | 824 | 21 | 1,784 | 52.6% | 46.2% | D+6.4 |
| Precinct -003-Sandwich003-Sandwich | 759 | 432 | 17 | 1,208 | 62.8% | 35.8% | D+27.1 |
| Precinct -003-Freedom003-Freedom | 536 | 647 | 12 | 1,195 | 44.9% | 54.1% | R+9.3 |
| Precinct -003-Effingham003-Effingham | 374 | 627 | 10 | 1,011 | 37.0% | 62.0% | R+25.0 |
| Precinct -003-Jackson003-Jackson | 541 | 220 | 15 | 776 | 69.7% | 28.4% | D+41.4 |
| Precinct -003-Brookfield003-Brookfield | 236 | 336 | 8 | 580 | 40.7% | 57.9% | R+17.2 |
| Precinct -003-Albany003-Albany | 253 | 194 | 5 | 452 | 56.0% | 42.9% | D+13.1 |
| Precinct -003-Eaton003-Eaton | 193 | 127 | 2 | 322 | 59.9% | 39.4% | D+20.5 |
| Precinct -003-Chatham003-Chatham | 113 | 119 | 2 | 234 | 48.3% | 50.9% | R+2.6 |
| Precinct -003-Hale’s Location003-Hale’s Location | 53 | 77 | 2 | 132 | 40.2% | 58.3% | R+18.2 |
| Precinct -003-Hart’s Location003-Hart’s Location | 21 | 25 | 0 | 46 | 45.7% | 54.3% | R+8.7 |
| TOWN OF ALBANY Voting District33_33003ALBA01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| TOWN OF BARTLETT Voting District33_33003BART01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| TOWN OF BROOKFIELD Voting District33_33003BROO01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| TOWN OF CHATHAM Voting District33_33003CHAT01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| TOWN OF CONWAY Voting District33_33003CONW01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| TOWN OF EATON Voting District33_33003EATO01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| TOWN OF EFFINGHAM Voting District33_33003EFFI01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| TOWN OF FREEDOM Voting District33_33003FREE01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| TOWN OF JACKSON Voting District33_33003JACK01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| TOWN OF MADISON Voting District33_33003MADI01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| TOWN OF MOULTONBOROUGH Voting District33_33003MOUL01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| TOWN OF OSSIPEE Voting District33_33003OSSI01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| TOWN OF SANDWICH Voting District33_33003SAND01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| TOWN OF TAMWORTH Voting District33_33003TAMW01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| TOWN OF TUFTONBORO Voting District33_33003TUFT01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| TOWN OF WAKEFIELD Voting District33_33003WAKE01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| TOWN OF WOLFEBORO Voting District33_33003WOLF01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | +0.3% |
| 1896 | −37.3% |
| 1900 | −16.7% |
| 1904 | −21.0% |
| 1908 | −23.0% |
| 1912 | +8.7% |
| 1916 | −6.0% |
| 1920 | −29.7% |
| 1924 | −32.3% |
| 1928 | −55.0% |
| 1932 | −29.4% |
| 1936 | −33.1% |
| 1940 | −32.7% |
| 1944 | −36.2% |
| 1948 | −52.9% |
| 1952 | −65.2% |
| 1956 | −70.8% |
| 1960 | −59.2% |
| 1964 | −10.0% |
| 1968 | −49.7% |
| 1972 | −55.4% |
| 1976 | −42.5% |
| 1980 | −46.2% |
| 1984 | −51.3% |
| 1988 | −42.7% |
| 1992 | −6.7% |
| 1996 | −1.4% |
| 2000 | −11.5% |
| 2004 | −4.6% |
| 2008 | +6.3% |
| 2012 | −0.8% |
| 2016 | −5.6% |
| 2020 | +1.5% |
| 2024 | −1.7% |
DemocraticRepublican
Federal and statewide elections · 3 House · 36 Senate · 3 Senate special · 25 governor
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Party registration · 2026R+11.8
Presidential vote · 2024R+1.7
Registration leans Republican; the presidential vote runs 10 points more Republican.
41,043 registered voters · 2026
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+557 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net +6,773 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $129,491 in average income, against $115,489 for residents who stayed — 12% higher. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean D+11.7 on average — 13 points more Democratic-leaning than Carroll County, NH itself (R+1.7).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Strafford County, NH194D+12.0
- Belknap County, NH137R+13.0
- Middlesex County, MA116D+39.2
- Rockingham County, NH114R+2.4
- Essex County, MA101D+20.2
- York County, ME65D+10.5
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Strafford County, NH148
- Rockingham County, NH106
- Belknap County, NH80
- Oxford County, ME76
- Cumberland County, ME61
- York County, ME51
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −36 |
| 2012 | +69 |
| 2013 | −51 |
| 2014 | +81 |
| 2015 | +116 |
| 2016 | +265 |
| 2017 | +842 |
| 2018 | +885 |
| 2019 | +402 |
| 2021 | +1,866 |
| 2022 | +675 |
| 2023 | +618 |
| 2024 | +484 |
| 2025 | +557 |
Carroll County's economy revolves around tourism and second-home ownership along Lake Winnipesaukee, drawing a mix of year-round working residents and seasonal transplants whose competing priorities have kept presidential margins within single digits for over a decade.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 8.7 points in 1912 and a Republican high of 70.8 points in 1956. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 3.2 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 1.7 points.
A population of 51,804, a 94% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $86,463 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Lincoln County and Belknap County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Lincoln County
Maine
94.0twin score
% unaffiliated12-yr trendScottish ancestry≠ Italian ancestry
Belknap County
New Hampshire
91.4twin score
Irish ancestry2008–2024 trajectory% White≠ median age
Sagadahoc County
Maine
91.2twin score
12-yr trendScottish ancestry2020 margin≠ median age
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Carroll County, New Hampshire. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/33003/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
Embed this page
A live widget for your site — no API key, attribution built in, CC BY 4.0. All widgets & sizes →
Cities & towns in Carroll County
New Hampshire at the ballot boxAll elections →
Frequently asked questions
How did Carroll County, New Hampshire vote in 2024?
In 2024, Carroll County, New Hampshire voted Republican by 1.7 points (R+1.7), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 34,658 votes cast, 16,822 went Democratic and 17,426 went Republican.
When did Carroll County, New Hampshire last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Carroll County, New Hampshire voted Democratic was 2020.
How many people live in Carroll County, New Hampshire?
Carroll County, New Hampshire has a population of 51,804 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Carroll County, New Hampshire?
Median household income in Carroll County, New Hampshire is $86,463 — above the national median of $80,734. The New Hampshire state median is $99,031.
What is the political history of Carroll County, New Hampshire?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Carroll County, New Hampshire from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 4 went Democratic and 30 went Republican.