- Lead
- 3,368
- Total
- 10,387
- vs nation
- R+31.0
- Turnout
- 72.7%
Waseca County, MN
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
2024 turnout 72.7% of 14,387 citizens 18+
- Lead
- 3,128
- Total
- 10,389
- vs nation
- R+34.6
- Turnout
- 75.1%
- Lead
- 3,129
- Total
- 9,653
- vs nation
- R+34.5
- Turnout
- 68.6%
- Lead
- 746
- Total
- 9,747
- vs nation
- R+11.5
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 810
- Total
- 9,888
- vs nation
- R+15.5
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 1,278
- Total
- 9,800
- vs nation
- R+10.6
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 914
- Total
- 8,864
- vs nation
- R+10.8
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 648
- Total
- 8,472
- vs nation
- R+0.9
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+32.4MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 18,8852024 5-year
- Median household income
- $76,2612024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 87.2%2024 5-year
- Black
- 1.0%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 7.3%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+30.4 in 1932MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+46.9 in 1920MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Faribault County, MN · twin score 91.8
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 72.7%10,455 participants ÷ 14,387 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +15.9 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- -4.1 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 56.8%–59.8%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 9,768 | 14,243 | 68.6% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 8,241 | 14,061 | 58.6% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 10,439 | 13,905 | 75.1% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 8,440 | 14,254 | 59.2% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 10,455 | 14,387 | 72.7% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
43 precincts · 10,387 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -JANESVILLE CITYJANESVILLE CITY | 450 | 877 | 31 | 1,358 | 33.1% | 64.6% | R+31.4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -WASECA W-2 P-AWASECA W-2 P-A | 531 | 738 | 18 | 1,287 | 41.3% | 57.3% | R+16.1 |
| Precinct -WOODVILLE TWPWOODVILLE TWP | 230 | 634 | 17 | 881 | 26.1% | 72.0% | R+45.9 |
| Precinct -WASECA W-1 P-AWASECA W-1 P-A | 336 | 461 | 24 | 821 | 40.9% | 56.2% | R+15.2 |
| Precinct -WASECA W-3 P-BWASECA W-3 P-B | 253 | 506 | 9 | 768 | 32.9% | 65.9% | R+32.9 |
| Precinct -NEW RICHLAND CITYNEW RICHLAND CITY | 223 | 425 | 13 | 661 | 33.7% | 64.3% | R+30.6 |
| Precinct -WASECA W-1 P-BWASECA W-1 P-B | 265 | 341 | 19 | 625 | 42.4% | 54.6% | R+12.2 |
| Precinct -WASECA W-2 P-BWASECA W-2 P-B | 201 | 283 | 12 | 496 | 40.5% | 57.1% | R+16.5 |
| Precinct -BLOOMING GROVE TWPBLOOMING GROVE TWP | 114 | 264 | 7 | 385 | 29.6% | 68.6% | R+39.0 |
| Precinct -IOSCO TWPIOSCO TWP | 117 | 264 | 4 | 385 | 30.4% | 68.6% | R+38.2 |
| Precinct -JANESVILLE TWPJANESVILLE TWP | 110 | 249 | 7 | 366 | 30.1% | 68.0% | R+38.0 |
| Precinct -OTISCO TWPOTISCO TWP | 70 | 267 | 6 | 343 | 20.4% | 77.8% | R+57.4 |
| Precinct -WASECA W-3 P-AWASECA W-3 P-A | 114 | 217 | 8 | 339 | 33.6% | 64.0% | R+30.4 |
| Precinct -NEW RICHLAND TWPNEW RICHLAND TWP | 69 | 211 | 9 | 289 | 23.9% | 73.0% | R+49.1 |
| Precinct -ST MARY TWPST MARY TWP | 76 | 192 | 7 | 275 | 27.6% | 69.8% | R+42.2 |
| Precinct -ALTON TWPALTON TWP | 41 | 219 | 6 | 266 | 15.4% | 82.3% | R+66.9 |
| Precinct -WILTON TWPWILTON TWP | 56 | 153 | 7 | 216 | 25.9% | 70.8% | R+44.9 |
| Precinct -FREEDOM TWPFREEDOM TWP | 45 | 161 | 0 | 206 | 21.8% | 78.2% | R+56.3 |
| Precinct -VIVIAN TWPVIVIAN TWP | 32 | 129 | 5 | 166 | 19.3% | 77.7% | R+58.4 |
| Precinct -BYRON TWPBYRON TWP | 38 | 96 | 4 | 138 | 27.5% | 69.6% | R+42.0 |
| Precinct -WALDORFWALDORF | 31 | 83 | 2 | 116 | 26.7% | 71.6% | R+44.8 |
| Alton Twp. Voting District27_271610005 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Blooming Grove Twp. Voting District27_271610010 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Byron Twp. Voting District27_271610015 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Elysian Voting District27_271610020 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Freedom Twp. Voting District27_271610025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Iosco Twp. Voting District27_271610030 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Janesville City Voting District27_271610035 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Janesville Twp. Voting District27_271610045 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| New Richland Twp. Voting District27_271610055 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| New Richland Voting District27_271610050 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Otisco Twp. Voting District27_271610060 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| St. Mary Twp. Voting District27_271610065 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Vivian Twp. Voting District27_271610070 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Waldorf Voting District27_271610075 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Waseca W-1 P-A27_271610080 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Waseca W-1 P-B27_271610085 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Waseca W-2 P-A27_271610090 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Waseca W-2 P-B27_271610095 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Waseca W-3 P-A27_271610100 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Waseca W-3 P-B27_271610105 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Wilton Twp. Voting District27_271610110 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Woodville Twp. Voting District27_271610115 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | −2.0% |
| 1896 | −20.3% |
| 1900 | −19.7% |
| 1904 | −44.3% |
| 1908 | −14.0% |
| 1912 | +18.9% |
| 1916 | −12.2% |
| 1920 | −46.9% |
| 1924 | −29.2% |
| 1928 | −14.6% |
| 1932 | +30.4% |
| 1936 | +16.4% |
| 1940 | −25.5% |
| 1944 | −30.4% |
| 1948 | −5.9% |
| 1952 | −39.8% |
| 1956 | −35.5% |
| 1960 | −26.8% |
| 1964 | +0.9% |
| 1968 | −16.2% |
| 1972 | −29.0% |
| 1976 | −6.6% |
| 1980 | −13.6% |
| 1984 | −21.8% |
| 1988 | −9.1% |
| 1992 | +0.3% |
| 1996 | +7.6% |
| 2000 | −10.3% |
| 2004 | −13.0% |
| 2008 | −8.2% |
| 2012 | −7.7% |
| 2016 | −32.4% |
| 2020 | −30.1% |
| 2024 | −32.4% |
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 11,267 |
| 2018 | 10,958 |
| 2020 | 11,779 |
| 2022 | 11,459 |
| 2024 | 12,121 |
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+37 net domestic migration · 2025
Net −1,215 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $50,356 in average income, against $73,517 for residents who stayed — 32% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+13.0 on average — 19 points more Democratic-leaning than Waseca County, MN itself (R+32.4).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Blue Earth County, MN81R+1.2
- Steele County, MN55R+24.4
- Le Sueur County, MN30R+33.6
- Freeborn County, MN22R+21.3
- Nicollet County, MN21R+0.5
- Rice County, MN21R+2.5
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Blue Earth County, MN88
- Steele County, MN72
- Le Sueur County, MN33
- Rice County, MN27
- Hennepin County, MN23
- Nicollet County, MN22
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −28 |
| 2012 | −53 |
| 2013 | −192 |
| 2014 | −168 |
| 2015 | −39 |
| 2016 | −169 |
| 2017 | −108 |
| 2018 | −81 |
| 2019 | −103 |
| 2021 | +15 |
| 2022 | −13 |
| 2023 | +61 |
| 2024 | −374 |
| 2025 | +37 |
Waseca County's farm-dominated economy and largely homogeneous rural population have tracked a broader rural Minnesota shift toward Republicans, with the 2024 presidential margin reaching its widest recorded gap in recent cycles.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 30.4 points in 1932 and a Republican high of 46.9 points in 1920. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 2.3 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 32.4 points.
A population of 18,885, a 87% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $76,261 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Faribault County and Renville County.
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Waseca County, Minnesota. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/27161/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.