HarrisDemocratic41.7%17,175TrumpRepublican56.9%23,407KennedyIndependent0.5%195
R+15.1- Lead
- 6,232
- Total
- 41,169
- vs nation
- R+13.7
- Turnout
- 73.5%
Akashiccounty
Van Buren County, MI
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
President results by year
2024 turnout 73.5% of 56,421 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic43.0%16,803TrumpRepublican55.3%21,591JorgensenLibertarian1.3%504
R+12.3- Lead
- 4,788
- Total
- 39,066
- vs nation
- R+16.7
- Turnout
- 70.7%
ClintonDemocratic39.8%13,258TrumpRepublican53.8%17,890JohnsonLibertarian4.4%1,480
R+13.9- Lead
- 4,632
- Total
- 33,274
- vs nation
- R+16.0
- Turnout
- 61.5%
ObamaDemocratic49.6%16,290RomneyRepublican49.2%16,141SteinGreen0.5%174
D+0.5- Lead
- 149
- Total
- 32,837
- vs nation
- R+3.4
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic53.5%18,588McCainRepublican44.7%15,534OtherAll other candidates1.9%644
D+8.8- Lead
- 3,054
- Total
- 34,766
- vs nation
- D+1.5
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic47.3%16,151BushRepublican51.6%17,634OtherAll other candidates1.1%389
R+4.3- Lead
- 1,483
- Total
- 34,174
- vs nation
- R+1.9
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic46.8%13,796BushRepublican50.2%14,792NaderGreen2.3%686
R+3.4- Lead
- 996
- Total
- 29,482
- vs nation
- R+3.9
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic47.7%13,355DoleRepublican40.6%11,347PerotReform10.5%2,946
D+7.2- Lead
- 2,008
- Total
- 27,975
- vs nation
- R+1.3
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+15.1MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 75,7952024 5-year
- Median household income
- $68,1142024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 78.2%2024 5-year
- Black
- 3.5%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 12.5%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+16.5 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+55.6 in 1924MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Muskegon County, MI · twin score 92.3
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 73.5%41,450 participants ÷ 56,421 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +13.1 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- -2.1 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 60.4%–63.3%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 33,857 | 55,015 | 61.5% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 29,970 | 55,221 | 54.3% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 39,311 | 55,617 | 70.7% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 32,144 | 55,787 | 57.6% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 41,450 | 56,421 | 73.5% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
64 precincts · 41,183 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -Antwerp Township, Precinct 2Antwerp Township, Precinct 2 | 1,013 | 1,146 | 41 | 2,200 | 46.0% | 52.1% | R+6.0 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -Almena Township, Precinct 1Almena Township, Precinct 1 | 893 | 1,170 | 33 | 2,096 | 42.6% | 55.8% | R+13.2 |
| Precinct -Pine Grove Township, Precinct 1Pine Grove Township, Precinct 1 | 651 | 1,277 | 39 | 1,967 | 33.1% | 64.9% | R+31.8 |
| Precinct -Antwerp Township, Precinct 5Antwerp Township, Precinct 5 | 769 | 1,015 | 31 | 1,815 | 42.4% | 55.9% | R+13.6 |
| Precinct -Porter Township, Precinct 1Porter Township, Precinct 1 | 712 | 1,068 | 21 | 1,801 | 39.5% | 59.3% | R+19.8 |
| Precinct -Geneva Township, Precinct 1Geneva Township, Precinct 1 | 737 | 963 | 34 | 1,734 | 42.5% | 55.5% | R+13.0 |
| Precinct -Decatur Township, Precinct 1Decatur Township, Precinct 1 | 651 | 1,058 | 22 | 1,731 | 37.6% | 61.1% | R+23.5 |
| Precinct -Lawrence Township, Precinct 1Lawrence Township, Precinct 1 | 637 | 1,023 | 18 | 1,678 | 38.0% | 61.0% | R+23.0 |
| Precinct -Paw Paw Township, Precinct 1Paw Paw Township, Precinct 1 | 814 | 820 | 26 | 1,660 | 49.0% | 49.4% | R+0.4 |
| Precinct -Bloomingdale Township, Precinct 1Bloomingdale Township, Precinct 1 | 586 | 1,014 | 18 | 1,618 | 36.2% | 62.7% | R+26.5 |
| Precinct -Antwerp Township, Precinct 4Antwerp Township, Precinct 4 | 734 | 816 | 20 | 1,570 | 46.8% | 52.0% | R+5.2 |
| Precinct -Waverly Township, Precinct 1Waverly Township, Precinct 1 | 534 | 904 | 21 | 1,459 | 36.6% | 62.0% | R+25.4 |
| Precinct -South Haven Township, Precinct 1South Haven Township, Precinct 1 | 689 | 732 | 21 | 1,442 | 47.8% | 50.8% | R+3.0 |
| Precinct -Almena Township, Precinct 2Almena Township, Precinct 2 | 634 | 770 | 22 | 1,426 | 44.5% | 54.0% | R+9.5 |
| Precinct -Hartford Township, Precinct 1Hartford Township, Precinct 1 | 381 | 973 | 21 | 1,375 | 27.7% | 70.8% | R+43.1 |
| Precinct -Antwerp Township, Precinct 3Antwerp Township, Precinct 3 | 565 | 699 | 13 | 1,277 | 44.2% | 54.7% | R+10.5 |
| Precinct -Antwerp Township, Precinct 1Antwerp Township, Precinct 1 | 568 | 675 | 26 | 1,269 | 44.8% | 53.2% | R+8.4 |
| Precinct -Paw Paw Township, Precinct 3Paw Paw Township, Precinct 3 | 530 | 695 | 16 | 1,241 | 42.7% | 56.0% | R+13.3 |
| Precinct -Columbia Township, Precinct 1Columbia Township, Precinct 1 | 404 | 800 | 22 | 1,226 | 33.0% | 65.3% | R+32.3 |
| Precinct -Keeler Township, Precinct 1Keeler Township, Precinct 1 | 340 | 761 | 9 | 1,110 | 30.6% | 68.6% | R+37.9 |
| Precinct -Covert Township, Precinct 1Covert Township, Precinct 1 | 594 | 487 | 13 | 1,094 | 54.3% | 44.5% | D+9.8 |
| Precinct -Arlington Township, Precinct 1Arlington Township, Precinct 1 | 404 | 665 | 15 | 1,084 | 37.3% | 61.3% | R+24.1 |
| Precinct -Paw Paw Township, Precinct 2Paw Paw Township, Precinct 2 | 459 | 596 | 13 | 1,068 | 43.0% | 55.8% | R+12.8 |
| Precinct -Bangor Township, Precinct 1Bangor Township, Precinct 1 | 302 | 654 | 4 | 960 | 31.5% | 68.1% | R+36.7 |
| Precinct -City of Hartford, Precinct 1City of Hartford, Precinct 1 | 379 | 565 | 13 | 957 | 39.6% | 59.0% | R+19.4 |
| Precinct -City of South Haven, Ward 2, Precinct 1City of South Haven, Ward 2, Precinct 1 | 560 | 298 | 15 | 873 | 64.1% | 34.1% | D+30.0 |
| Precinct -South Haven Township, Precinct 2South Haven Township, Precinct 2 | 389 | 377 | 8 | 774 | 50.3% | 48.7% | D+1.6 |
| Precinct -City of Bangor, Precinct 1City of Bangor, Precinct 1 | 338 | 421 | 8 | 767 | 44.1% | 54.9% | R+10.8 |
| Precinct -City of South Haven, Ward 1, Precinct 1City of South Haven, Ward 1, Precinct 1 | 521 | 219 | 9 | 749 | 69.6% | 29.2% | D+40.3 |
| Precinct -Hamilton Township, Precinct 1Hamilton Township, Precinct 1 | 244 | 492 | 8 | 744 | 32.8% | 66.1% | R+33.3 |
| Precinct -City of Gobles, Precinct 1City of Gobles, Precinct 1 | 153 | 258 | 7 | 418 | 36.6% | 61.7% | R+25.1 |
| 1590160000001159-01600-00001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 1590160000002159-01600-00002 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 1590314000001159-03140-00001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 1590314000002159-03140-00002 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 1590314000003159-03140-00003 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 1590314000004159-03140-00004 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 1590314000005159-03140-00005 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 1590350000001159-03500-00001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 1590514000001159-05140-00001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 1590516000001159-05160-00001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 1590924000001159-09240-00001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 1591744000001159-17440-00001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 1591856000001159-18560-00001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 1592106000001159-21060-00001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 1593184000001159-31840-00001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 1593264000001159-32640-00001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 1593618000001159-36180-00001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 1593696000001159-36960-00001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 1593698000001159-36980-00001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 1594250000001159-42500-00001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 1594646000001159-46460-00001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 1596300000001159-63000-00001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 1596300000002159-63000-00002 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 1596300000003159-63000-00003 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 1596428000001159-64280-00001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 1596576000001159-65760-00001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 1597498001001159-74980-01001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 1597498002001159-74980-02001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 1597498003001159-74980-03001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 1597500000001159-75000-00001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 1597500000002159-75000-00002 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| 1598482000001159-84820-00001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Precinct -City of South Haven, Ward 3, Precinct 1City of South Haven, Ward 3, Precinct 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | −22.9% |
| 1896 | −6.1% |
| 1900 | −19.9% |
| 1904 | −50.1% |
| 1908 | −30.7% |
| 1912 | −1.5% |
| 1916 | −13.9% |
| 1920 | −53.5% |
| 1924 | −55.6% |
| 1928 | −55.5% |
| 1932 | +1.8% |
| 1936 | −14.4% |
| 1940 | −34.4% |
| 1944 | −37.1% |
| 1948 | −38.8% |
| 1952 | −42.5% |
| 1956 | −39.9% |
| 1960 | −29.0% |
| 1964 | +16.5% |
| 1968 | −16.4% |
| 1972 | −31.3% |
| 1976 | −13.4% |
| 1980 | −20.1% |
| 1984 | −29.8% |
| 1988 | −15.2% |
| 1992 | +7.0% |
| 1996 | +7.2% |
| 2000 | −3.4% |
| 2004 | −4.3% |
| 2008 | +8.8% |
| 2012 | +0.5% |
| 2016 | −13.9% |
| 2020 | −12.3% |
| 2024 | −15.1% |
DemocraticRepublican
Federal and statewide elections · 3 House · 37 Senate · 12 governor
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
Registered voters
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 55,350 |
| 2018 | 55,755 |
| 2020 | 60,896 |
| 2022 | 62,840 |
| 2024 | 64,485 |
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
−38 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net −1,790 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $62,384 in average income, against $70,462 for residents who stayed — 11% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean D+0.8 on average — 16 points more Democratic-leaning than Van Buren County, MI itself (R+15.1).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Kalamazoo County, MI553D+17.7
- Allegan County, MI214R+27.2
- Berrien County, MI205R+7.9
- Cook County, IL72D+41.6
- Cass County, MI71R+33.9
- Kent County, MI62D+5.4
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Kalamazoo County, MI568
- Berrien County, MI221
- Allegan County, MI191
- Cass County, MI81
- Kent County, MI70
- Ottawa County, MI56
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −469 |
| 2012 | −999 |
| 2013 | −184 |
| 2014 | −372 |
| 2015 | −319 |
| 2016 | −8 |
| 2017 | −9 |
| 2018 | +51 |
| 2019 | +99 |
| 2021 | +188 |
| 2022 | +101 |
| 2023 | +121 |
| 2024 | +48 |
| 2025 | −38 |
Stretching along Lake Michigan's eastern shore, Van Buren County is Michigan's leading producer of blueberries and grapes, and its rural farming communities have driven a steady rightward shift — the 2024 presidential margin reached R+15.1, up from closer margins a decade ago.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 16.5 points in 1964 and a Republican high of 55.6 points in 1924. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 2.9 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 15.1 points.
A population of 75,795, a 78% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $68,114 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Muskegon County and LaSalle County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Muskegon County
Michigan
92.3twin score
% unaffiliated2008 marginelasticity
LaSalle County
Illinois
88.0twin score
2004–2016 trajectory≠ Irish ancestry
LaPorte County
Indiana
86.6twin score
2004–2024 trajectory% Evangelical≠ elasticity
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Van Buren County, Michigan. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/26159/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Cities & towns in Van Buren County
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Frequently asked questions
How did Van Buren County, Michigan vote in 2024?
In 2024, Van Buren County, Michigan voted Republican by 15.1 points (R+15.1), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 41,169 votes cast, 17,175 went Democratic and 23,407 went Republican.
When did Van Buren County, Michigan last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Van Buren County, Michigan voted Democratic was 2012.
How many people live in Van Buren County, Michigan?
Van Buren County, Michigan has a population of 75,795 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Van Buren County, Michigan?
Median household income in Van Buren County, Michigan is $68,114 — below the national median of $80,734. The Michigan state median is $72,875.
What is the political history of Van Buren County, Michigan?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Van Buren County, Michigan from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 6 went Democratic and 27 went Republican.