Tennessee voted Republican by 29.7 points in 2024 — Donald Trump took 1,966,865 votes to Kamala Harris’s 1,056,265, a margin that widened 6.5 points from the 23.2 it gave him in 2020. The last Democrat to carry the state was Bill Clinton in 1996, by 2.4 points. Of its ninety-five counties, three voted Democratic, and two carry almost the whole party vote. Davidson County, holding Nashville, ran 27.4 points Democratic, the widest margin in the state; Shelby County, holding Memphis and majority Black, ran 25.4 points and cast the most Democratic votes of any county, 201,759. The map is a Republican field with two cities cut out of it.
The third Democratic county is the smallest of stories: Haywood, in the rural west, decided by 25 votes out of 6,652, the last trace of the old Black-Belt vote that once colored West Tennessee. Everything else runs Republican, and East Tennessee runs hardest. The mountain counties around Knoxville have voted Republican since the Civil War, when the Unionist highlands resisted secession and never joined the Democratic Solid South forming around them — a loyalty that outlived the war by a century and a half. Knox County, holding Knoxville, voted Republican by 19.5 points in 2024; Scott County, on the Cumberland Plateau, was the reddest at 79.8 points.
Outside the three cities, Middle and West Tennessee have moved further right. Maury County, south of Nashville, voted Republican by 26.9 points in 2012 and 44.6 in 2024, a 17.7-point shift; Knox County moved the other way, narrowing from 29.2 points Republican in 2012 to 19.5 as Knoxville’s suburbs filled in. Underneath sits a state of 7.1 million, 71 percent White and 15.4 percent Black, and one of the most Evangelical in the country — 36.6 percent Evangelical Protestant, fifth of fifty, against 4 percent Catholic, forty-ninth. In 2026 the governorship is open, Bill Lee term-limited, with U.S. Sen. Marsha Blackburn the presumptive Republican nominee.