- Lead
- 5,630
- Total
- 12,861
- vs nation
- R+42.3
- Turnout
- 59.2%
Tate County, MS
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
2024 turnout 59.2% of 21,742 citizens 18+
- Lead
- 4,524
- Total
- 13,093
- vs nation
- R+39.0
- Turnout
- 61.1%
- Lead
- 3,569
- Total
- 11,627
- vs nation
- R+32.8
- Turnout
- 55.1%
- Lead
- 2,399
- Total
- 12,406
- vs nation
- R+23.2
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 2,675
- Total
- 12,778
- vs nation
- R+28.2
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 2,413
- Total
- 11,167
- vs nation
- R+19.2
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 1,707
- Total
- 8,693
- vs nation
- R+20.2
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 499
- Total
- 7,330
- vs nation
- R+15.3
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+43.8MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 28,3212024 5-year
- Median household income
- $69,7042024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 64.0%2024 5-year
- Black
- 29.2%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 3.2%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+99.6 in 1940MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+78.8 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Laurens County, SC · twin score 87.7
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 59.2%12,861 participants ÷ 21,742 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +28.8 ptsPresidential-dependent
- Drop-off versus state
- +0.9 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 30.3%–37.4%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 11,627 | 21,115 | 55.1% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 8,710 | 21,563 | 40.4% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 13,224 | 21,646 | 61.1% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 6,928 | 21,461 | 32.3% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 12,861 | 21,742 | 59.2% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
38 precincts · 12,861 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -Senatobia 1Senatobia 1 | 603 | 1,413 | 25 | 2,041 | 29.5% | 69.2% | R+39.7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -IndependenceIndependence | 363 | 1,265 | 9 | 1,637 | 22.2% | 77.3% | R+55.1 |
| Precinct -Senatobia 2Senatobia 2 | 288 | 876 | 14 | 1,178 | 24.4% | 74.4% | R+49.9 |
| Precinct -Coldwater 3Coldwater 3 | 630 | 487 | 19 | 1,136 | 55.5% | 42.9% | D+12.6 |
| Precinct -Senatobia 4Senatobia 4 | 196 | 656 | 7 | 859 | 22.8% | 76.4% | R+53.6 |
| Precinct -Poagville 4Poagville 4 | 121 | 717 | 6 | 844 | 14.3% | 85.0% | R+70.6 |
| Precinct -SherrodSherrod | 47 | 773 | 5 | 825 | 5.7% | 93.7% | R+88.0 |
| Precinct -LooxahomaLooxahoma | 274 | 525 | 8 | 807 | 34.0% | 65.1% | R+31.1 |
| Precinct -ArkabutlaArkabutla | 111 | 352 | 6 | 469 | 23.7% | 75.1% | R+51.4 |
| Precinct -Senatobia 3Senatobia 3 | 332 | 83 | 3 | 418 | 79.4% | 19.9% | D+59.6 |
| Precinct -TaylorTaylor | 188 | 218 | 1 | 407 | 46.2% | 53.6% | R+7.4 |
| Precinct -Strayhorn 2Strayhorn 2 | 23 | 376 | 6 | 405 | 5.7% | 92.8% | R+87.2 |
| Precinct -PalestinePalestine | 20 | 322 | 1 | 343 | 5.8% | 93.9% | R+88.0 |
| Precinct -ThyatiraThyatira | 60 | 249 | 0 | 309 | 19.4% | 80.6% | R+61.2 |
| Precinct -TyroTyro | 121 | 166 | 5 | 292 | 41.4% | 56.8% | R+15.4 |
| Precinct -Poagville 5Poagville 5 | 71 | 181 | 2 | 254 | 28.0% | 71.3% | R+43.3 |
| Precinct -Flag LakeFlag Lake | 16 | 235 | 2 | 253 | 6.3% | 92.9% | R+86.6 |
| Precinct -WyatteWyatte | 52 | 151 | 1 | 204 | 25.5% | 74.0% | R+48.5 |
| Precinct -EvansvilleEvansville | 39 | 140 | 1 | 180 | 21.7% | 77.8% | R+56.1 |
| Arkabutla Voting District28_28137203 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Coldwater Voting District28_28137202 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Evansville Voting District28_28137204 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Independence Voting District28_28137504 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Looxahoma Voting District28_28137402 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Palestine Voting District28_28137303 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Poagville 4 Voting District28_28137302 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Poagville 5 Voting District28_28137505 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Sarah Voting District28_28137102 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Senatobia 3 Voting District28_28137305 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Senatobia No.1 Voting District28_28137101 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Senatobia No.2 Voting District28_28137201 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Senatobia No.4 Voting District28_28137401 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Sherrod Voting District28_28137103 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Strayhorn Voting District28_28137104 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Taylor Voting District28_28137304 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Thyatira Voting District28_28137502 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Tyro Voting District28_28137403 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Wyatte Voting District28_28137503 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | +70.9% |
| 1896 | +84.5% |
| 1900 | +92.5% |
| 1904 | +92.9% |
| 1908 | +88.2% |
| 1912 | +83.5% |
| 1916 | +96.1% |
| 1920 | +75.6% |
| 1924 | +98.2% |
| 1928 | +93.6% |
| 1932 | +98.1% |
| 1936 | +98.7% |
| 1940 | +99.6% |
| 1944 | +96.1% |
| 1948 | +13.0% |
| 1952 | +60.6% |
| 1956 | +71.1% |
| 1960 | +25.1% |
| 1964 | −78.8% |
| 1968 | +12.2% |
| 1972 | −53.8% |
| 1976 | +19.4% |
| 1980 | +7.5% |
| 1984 | −24.2% |
| 1988 | −22.6% |
| 1992 | −8.1% |
| 1996 | −6.8% |
| 2000 | −19.6% |
| 2004 | −21.6% |
| 2008 | −20.9% |
| 2012 | −19.3% |
| 2016 | −30.7% |
| 2020 | −34.6% |
| 2024 | −43.8% |
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 18,478 |
| 2018 | 18,776 |
| 2020 | 19,265 |
| 2022 | 18,848 |
| 2024 | 20,112 |
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+195 net domestic migration · 2025
Net −144 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $51,383 in average income, against $64,716 for residents who stayed — 21% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+13.8 on average — 30 points more Democratic-leaning than Tate County, MS itself (R+43.8).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- DeSoto County, MS297R+24.1
- Shelby County, TN78D+25.4
- Panola County, MS77R+14.8
- Marshall County, MS36R+7.3
- Lafayette County, MS20R+21.8
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- DeSoto County, MS212
- Panola County, MS95
- Shelby County, TN83
- Marshall County, MS25
- Lafayette County, MS22
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −336 |
| 2012 | −320 |
| 2013 | −196 |
| 2014 | −169 |
| 2015 | +187 |
| 2016 | −200 |
| 2017 | +234 |
| 2018 | −286 |
| 2019 | −45 |
| 2021 | +165 |
| 2022 | +269 |
| 2023 | +80 |
| 2024 | +278 |
| 2025 | +195 |
Tate County sits at the northern fringe of the Mississippi Delta, where a rural, majority-white population has delivered Republican presidential margins exceeding 40 points in recent cycles, making it one of the state's more lopsided counties by share.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 99.6 points in 1940 and a Republican high of 78.8 points in 1964. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 9.2 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 43.8 points.
A population of 28,321, a 64% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $69,704 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Laurens County and Covington County.
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Tate County, Mississippi. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/28137/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.