HarrisDemocratic31.4%2,599TrumpRepublican67.0%5,541KennedyIndependent1.0%82
R+35.6- Lead
- 2,942
- Total
- 8,275
- vs nation
- R+34.1
- Turnout
- 63.6%
Akashiccounty
Nobles County, MN
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
President results by year
2024 turnout 63.6% of 13,123 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic33.7%2,933TrumpRepublican64.3%5,600JorgensenLibertarian0.7%59
R+30.6- Lead
- 2,667
- Total
- 8,715
- vs nation
- R+35.1
- Turnout
- 67.0%
ClintonDemocratic31.7%2,733TrumpRepublican61.4%5,299JohnsonLibertarian3.0%258
R+29.7- Lead
- 2,566
- Total
- 8,632
- vs nation
- R+31.8
- Turnout
- 67.7%
ObamaDemocratic44.5%3,793RomneyRepublican53.8%4,581GRAYLibertarian0.7%58
R+9.2- Lead
- 788
- Total
- 8,520
- vs nation
- R+13.1
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic48.2%4,244McCainRepublican49.6%4,368OtherAll other candidates2.3%201
R+1.4- Lead
- 124
- Total
- 8,813
- vs nation
- R+8.7
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic42.4%3,898BushRepublican56.1%5,159OtherAll other candidates1.6%147
R+13.7- Lead
- 1,261
- Total
- 9,204
- vs nation
- R+11.2
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic42.4%3,760BushRepublican53.7%4,766NaderGreen2.7%238
R+11.3- Lead
- 1,006
- Total
- 8,872
- vs nation
- R+11.9
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic45.3%4,106DoleRepublican41.6%3,769PerotReform12.5%1,132
D+3.7- Lead
- 337
- Total
- 9,061
- vs nation
- R+4.8
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+35.6MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 22,0412024 5-year
- Median household income
- $66,1012024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 52.2%2024 5-year
- Black
- 4.6%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 34.5%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+29.3 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+61.9 in 1920MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Buena Vista County, IA · twin score 82.9
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 63.6%8,351 participants ÷ 13,123 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +21.9 ptsPresidential-dependent
- Drop-off versus state
- +2.0 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 41.7%–45.9%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 8,776 | 12,957 | 67.7% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 7,163 | 13,221 | 54.2% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 8,797 | 13,123 | 67.0% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 6,130 | 13,579 | 45.1% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 8,351 | 13,123 | 63.6% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
80 precincts · 8,275 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -WORTHINGTON W-2 P-1WORTHINGTON W-2 P-1 | 337 | 538 | 9 | 884 | 38.1% | 60.9% | R+22.7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -ADRIANADRIAN | 181 | 443 | 12 | 636 | 28.5% | 69.7% | R+41.2 |
| Precinct -WORTHINGTON W-2 P-5WORTHINGTON W-2 P-5 | 251 | 320 | 6 | 577 | 43.5% | 55.5% | R+12.0 |
| Precinct -WORTHINGTON W-1 P-5WORTHINGTON W-1 P-5 | 172 | 254 | 10 | 436 | 39.4% | 58.3% | R+18.8 |
| Precinct -WORTHINGTON W-1 P-1WORTHINGTON W-1 P-1 | 169 | 260 | 1 | 430 | 39.3% | 60.5% | R+21.2 |
| Precinct -WORTHINGTON W-1 P-2WORTHINGTON W-1 P-2 | 132 | 153 | 8 | 293 | 45.1% | 52.2% | R+7.2 |
| Precinct -WORTHINGTON W-2 P-4WORTHINGTON W-2 P-4 | 103 | 153 | 15 | 271 | 38.0% | 56.5% | R+18.5 |
| Precinct -WORTHINGTON W-2 P-2WORTHINGTON W-2 P-2 | 127 | 139 | 3 | 269 | 47.2% | 51.7% | R+4.5 |
| Precinct -WORTHINGTON W-2 P-3WORTHINGTON W-2 P-3 | 130 | 124 | 3 | 257 | 50.6% | 48.2% | D+2.3 |
| Precinct -LEOTA TWPLEOTA TWP | 24 | 207 | 2 | 233 | 10.3% | 88.8% | R+78.5 |
| Precinct -BIGELOW TWPBIGELOW TWP | 62 | 164 | 5 | 231 | 26.8% | 71.0% | R+44.2 |
| Precinct -ELLSWORTHELLSWORTH | 49 | 179 | 2 | 230 | 21.3% | 77.8% | R+56.5 |
| Precinct -WORTHINGTON W-1 P-3WORTHINGTON W-1 P-3 | 98 | 111 | 3 | 212 | 46.2% | 52.4% | R+6.1 |
| Precinct -BREWSTERBREWSTER | 71 | 134 | 6 | 211 | 33.6% | 63.5% | R+29.9 |
| Precinct -SUMMIT LAKE TWPSUMMIT LAKE TWP | 49 | 146 | 3 | 198 | 24.7% | 73.7% | R+49.0 |
| Precinct -ROUND LAKEROUND LAKE | 44 | 126 | 0 | 170 | 25.9% | 74.1% | R+48.2 |
| Precinct -WORTHINGTON TWPWORTHINGTON TWP | 40 | 126 | 1 | 167 | 24.0% | 75.4% | R+51.5 |
| Precinct -LORAIN TWPLORAIN TWP | 33 | 131 | 0 | 164 | 20.1% | 79.9% | R+59.8 |
| Precinct -WILMONTWILMONT | 31 | 125 | 4 | 160 | 19.4% | 78.1% | R+58.8 |
| Precinct -RUSHMORERUSHMORE | 33 | 123 | 2 | 158 | 20.9% | 77.8% | R+57.0 |
| Precinct -WORTHINGTON W-1 P-4WORTHINGTON W-1 P-4 | 72 | 69 | 5 | 146 | 49.3% | 47.3% | D+2.1 |
| Precinct -DEWALD TWPDEWALD TWP | 24 | 118 | 3 | 145 | 16.6% | 81.4% | R+64.8 |
| Precinct -GRAHAM LAKES TWPGRAHAM LAKES TWP | 46 | 96 | 0 | 142 | 32.4% | 67.6% | R+35.2 |
| Precinct -ELK TWPELK TWP | 25 | 111 | 4 | 140 | 17.9% | 79.3% | R+61.4 |
| Precinct -WESTSIDE TWPWESTSIDE TWP | 24 | 100 | 1 | 125 | 19.2% | 80.0% | R+60.8 |
| Precinct -INDIAN LAKE TWPINDIAN LAKE TWP | 29 | 94 | 1 | 124 | 23.4% | 75.8% | R+52.4 |
| Precinct -GRAND PRAIRIE TWPGRAND PRAIRIE TWP | 11 | 109 | 3 | 123 | 8.9% | 88.6% | R+79.7 |
| Precinct -SEWARD TWPSEWARD TWP | 21 | 97 | 3 | 121 | 17.4% | 80.2% | R+62.8 |
| Precinct -LITTLE ROCK TWPLITTLE ROCK TWP | 13 | 102 | 0 | 115 | 11.3% | 88.7% | R+77.4 |
| Precinct -RANSOM TWPRANSOM TWP | 36 | 72 | 5 | 113 | 31.9% | 63.7% | R+31.9 |
| Precinct -LISMORELISMORE | 29 | 79 | 2 | 110 | 26.4% | 71.8% | R+45.5 |
| Precinct -HERSEY TWPHERSEY TWP | 39 | 67 | 2 | 108 | 36.1% | 62.0% | R+25.9 |
| Precinct -LARKIN TWPLARKIN TWP | 15 | 89 | 3 | 107 | 14.0% | 83.2% | R+69.2 |
| Precinct -WILMONT TWPWILMONT TWP | 11 | 89 | 1 | 101 | 10.9% | 88.1% | R+77.2 |
| Precinct -BLOOM TWPBLOOM TWP | 21 | 66 | 2 | 89 | 23.6% | 74.2% | R+50.6 |
| Precinct -OLNEY TWPOLNEY TWP | 7 | 78 | 3 | 88 | 8.0% | 88.6% | R+80.7 |
| Precinct -LISMORE TWPLISMORE TWP | 14 | 71 | 0 | 85 | 16.5% | 83.5% | R+67.1 |
| Precinct -BIGELOWBIGELOW | 16 | 47 | 1 | 64 | 25.0% | 73.4% | R+48.4 |
| Precinct -DUNDEEDUNDEE | 7 | 29 | 1 | 37 | 18.9% | 78.4% | R+59.5 |
| Precinct -KINBRAEKINBRAE | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 60.0% | 40.0% | D+20.0 |
| Adrian Voting District27_271050005 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Bigelow Twp. Voting District27_271050015 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Bigelow Voting District27_271050010 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Bloom Twp. Voting District27_271050020 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Brewster Voting District27_271050025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Dewald Twp. Voting District27_271050030 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Dundee Voting District27_271050035 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Elk Twp. Voting District27_271050040 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Ellsworth Voting District27_271050045 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Graham Lakes Twp. Voting District27_271050050 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Grand Prairie Twp. Voting District27_271050055 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Hersey Twp. Voting District27_271050060 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Indian Lake Twp. Voting District27_271050065 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Kinbrae Voting District27_271050070 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Larkin Twp. Voting District27_271050075 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Leota Twp. Voting District27_271050080 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Lismore Twp. Voting District27_271050090 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Lismore Voting District27_271050085 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Little Rock Twp. Voting District27_271050095 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Lorain Twp. Voting District27_271050100 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Olney Twp. Voting District27_271050105 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Ransom Twp. Voting District27_271050110 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Round Lake Voting District27_271050115 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Rushmore Voting District27_271050120 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Seward Twp. Voting District27_271050125 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Summit Lake Twp. Voting District27_271050130 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Westside Twp. Voting District27_271050135 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Wilmont Twp. Voting District27_271050145 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Wilmont Voting District27_271050140 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Worthington Twp. Voting District27_271050190 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Worthington W-1 P-127_271050150 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Worthington W-1 P-227_271050155 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Worthington W-1 P-327_271050160 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Worthington W-1 P-427_271050165 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Worthington W-1 P-527_271050166 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Worthington W-2 P-127_271050170 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Worthington W-2 P-227_271050175 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Worthington W-2 P-327_271050180 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Worthington W-2 P-427_271050185 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Worthington W-2 P-527_271050186 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | −11.4% |
| 1896 | −12.7% |
| 1900 | −20.5% |
| 1904 | −45.2% |
| 1908 | −20.1% |
| 1912 | +13.4% |
| 1916 | −4.7% |
| 1920 | −61.9% |
| 1924 | −39.3% |
| 1928 | −12.4% |
| 1932 | +28.2% |
| 1936 | +28.7% |
| 1940 | −13.1% |
| 1944 | −9.7% |
| 1948 | +22.5% |
| 1952 | −30.8% |
| 1956 | −12.6% |
| 1960 | −6.5% |
| 1964 | +29.3% |
| 1968 | +7.1% |
| 1972 | +4.9% |
| 1976 | +14.3% |
| 1980 | −0.0% |
| 1984 | −2.7% |
| 1988 | +6.4% |
| 1992 | +2.1% |
| 1996 | +3.7% |
| 2000 | −11.3% |
| 2004 | −13.7% |
| 2008 | −1.4% |
| 2012 | −9.2% |
| 2016 | −29.7% |
| 2020 | −30.6% |
| 2024 | −35.6% |
DemocraticRepublican
Federal and statewide elections · 3 House · 38 Senate · 2 Senate special · 12 governor
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
Registered voters
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 10,315 |
| 2018 | 9,876 |
| 2020 | 10,522 |
| 2022 | 9,877 |
| 2024 | 10,393 |
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
−194 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net −4,663 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $47,887 in average income, against $74,602 for residents who stayed — 36% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+33.9 on average — 1.6 points more Democratic-leaning than Nobles County, MN itself (R+35.6).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Jackson County, MN30R+42.0
- Minnehaha County, SD27R+12.7
- Murray County, MN23R+42.3
- Cottonwood County, MN20R+41.0
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Minnehaha County, SD64
- Jackson County, MN30
- Murray County, MN27
- Rock County, MN26
- Lincoln County, SD22
- Hennepin County, MN21
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −209 |
| 2012 | −237 |
| 2013 | −262 |
| 2014 | −454 |
| 2015 | −280 |
| 2016 | −254 |
| 2017 | −506 |
| 2018 | −226 |
| 2019 | −399 |
| 2021 | −351 |
| 2022 | −440 |
| 2023 | −514 |
| 2024 | −337 |
| 2025 | −194 |
Nobles County anchors southwest Minnesota's livestock economy, with Worthington's large immigrant workforce creating a demographic tension that hasn't translated into Democratic margins — the county moved roughly 20 points toward Republicans between 2008 and 2024.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 29.3 points in 1964 and a Republican high of 61.9 points in 1920. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 5.0 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 35.6 points.
A population of 22,041, a 52% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $66,101 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Buena Vista County and Saline County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Buena Vista County
Iowa
82.9twin score
elasticity% Latinomedian age≠ % Asian
Saline County
Nebraska
81.9twin score
12-yr trend% Latinoelasticity≠ % Catholic
Dakota County
Nebraska
77.4twin score
12-yr trend% Latino% Catholic≠ % unaffiliated
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Nobles County, Minnesota. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/27105/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Cities & towns in Nobles County
Minnesota at the ballot boxAll elections →
Frequently asked questions
How did Nobles County, Minnesota vote in 2024?
In 2024, Nobles County, Minnesota voted Republican by 35.6 points (R+35.6), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 8,275 votes cast, 2,599 went Democratic and 5,541 went Republican.
When did Nobles County, Minnesota last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Nobles County, Minnesota voted Democratic was 1996.
How many people live in Nobles County, Minnesota?
Nobles County, Minnesota has a population of 22,041 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Nobles County, Minnesota?
Median household income in Nobles County, Minnesota is $66,101 — below the national median of $80,734. The Minnesota state median is $89,062.
What is the political history of Nobles County, Minnesota?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Nobles County, Minnesota from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 10 went Democratic and 22 went Republican.