- Lead
- 16,496
- Total
- 41,967
- vs nation
- R+37.8
Minnesota 21st State Senate District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 15,508
- Total
- 42,878
- vs nation
- R+40.6
- Lead
- 14,184
- Total
- 41,127
- vs nation
- R+36.6
- Lead
- 4,950
- Total
- 41,413
- vs nation
- R+15.8
- Lead
- 1,984
- Total
- 42,413
- vs nation
- R+12.0
- Lead
- 5,675
- Total
- 44,377
- vs nation
- R+10.3
- Lead
- 4,060
- Total
- 42,583
- vs nation
- R+10.1
- Lead
- 2,110
- Total
- 43,155
- vs nation
- R+3.6
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+39.3MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 85,3122024 5-year
- Population density
- 19 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 4,599 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $70,4922024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 77.7%2024 5-year
- Black
- 1.5%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 15.1%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+33.6 in 1932MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+68.6 in 1876MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State Senate District 16, MN · twin score 96.8
presidential history
Party record book
Minnesota 21st State Senate District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Franklin D. Roosevelt1932
66.0%
25,518 votes · D+33.6 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1936 · 63.4%
Republican
Rutherford B. Hayes1876
84.1%
2,593 votes · R+68.6 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Warren G. Harding, 1920 · 81.1%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
31,021votes
60.5% of the vote · D+21.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1936 · 29,533 votes
Republican
Dwight D. Eisenhower1952
34,959votes
67.5% of the vote · R+35.4 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Richard Nixon, 1960 · 30,145 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Franklin D. Roosevelt1932
+15.9pts D vs U.S.
Place D+33.6 · U.S. D+17.8 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · George McGovern, 1972 · +14.4 pts
Republican
Donald Trump2020
+40.6pts R vs U.S.
Place R+36.2 · U.S. D+4.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Warren G. Harding, 1920 · +39.8 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | R | 27.9%11,411 | 72.1%29,458 | 40,869 |
| 2020 | R | 36.7%14,656 | 63.3%25,319 | 39,975 |
Spanning rural Greater Minnesota, this district delivered a 33-point margin in 2024, placing it among the state's most lopsided in statewide contests and anchoring the Republican base in the upper chamber.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 33.6 points in 1932 and a Republican high of 68.6 points in 1876. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 3.1 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 39.3 points.
A population of 85,312, a 78% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $70,492 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State Senate District 16 and State Senate District 15.
The state-senate districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Minnesota 21st State Senate District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-upper/27021/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.