- Lead
- 16,563
- Total
- 46,539
- vs nation
- R+34.1
Minnesota 15th State Senate District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 14,821
- Total
- 46,593
- vs nation
- R+36.3
- Lead
- 14,628
- Total
- 43,842
- vs nation
- R+35.5
- Lead
- 5,219
- Total
- 44,658
- vs nation
- R+15.5
- Lead
- 2,317
- Total
- 45,068
- vs nation
- R+12.4
- Lead
- 6,655
- Total
- 46,044
- vs nation
- R+12.0
- Lead
- 5,711
- Total
- 43,089
- vs nation
- R+13.8
- Lead
- 605
- Total
- 42,774
- vs nation
- R+7.1
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+35.6MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 84,8652024 5-year
- Population density
- 22 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 3,818 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $71,6882024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 87.3%2024 5-year
- Black
- 1.4%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 4.9%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+39.8 in 1932MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+64.1 in 1920MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State Senate District 21, MN · twin score 94.8
presidential history
Party record book
Minnesota 15th State Senate District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Franklin D. Roosevelt1932
68.9%
25,558 votes · D+39.8 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1936 · 59.5%
Republican
James A. Garfield1880
79.9%
5,150 votes · R+60.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Theodore Roosevelt, 1904 · 78.7%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
26,728votes
58.5% of the vote · D+17.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Jimmy Carter, 1976 · 26,128 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
31,054votes
66.7% of the vote · R+35.6 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 30,224 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Franklin D. Roosevelt1932
+22.0pts D vs U.S.
Place D+39.8 · U.S. D+17.8 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · George McGovern, 1972 · +9.8 pts
Republican
Theodore Roosevelt1904
+42.7pts R vs U.S.
Place R+62.3 · U.S. R+19.7 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Warren G. Harding, 1920 · +37.9 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | R | 28.7%13,014 | 71.3%32,362 | 45,376 |
| 2020 | R | 40.2%17,093 | 59.8%25,403 | 42,496 |
With a 2024 presidential margin of R+35, this district anchors the conservative edge of Minnesota's state senate map, suggesting a rural or exurban electorate that diverges sharply from the state's statewide competitiveness.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 39.8 points in 1932 and a Republican high of 64.1 points in 1920. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 3.8 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 35.6 points.
A population of 84,865, a 87% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $71,688 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State Senate District 21 and State Senate District 12.
The state-senate districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Minnesota 15th State Senate District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-upper/27015/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.