- Lead
- 15,843
- Total
- 45,548
- vs nation
- R+33.3
Minnesota 16th State Senate District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 13,986
- Total
- 45,849
- vs nation
- R+35.0
- Lead
- 12,729
- Total
- 42,679
- vs nation
- R+31.9
- Lead
- 3,048
- Total
- 42,336
- vs nation
- R+11.1
- Lead
- 1,408
- Total
- 43,589
- vs nation
- R+10.5
- Lead
- 3,376
- Total
- 43,424
- vs nation
- R+5.3
- Lead
- 2,815
- Total
- 39,869
- vs nation
- R+7.6
- Lead
- 4,748
- Total
- 38,342
- vs nation
- D+3.9
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+34.8MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 85,2832024 5-year
- Population density
- 31 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 2,755 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $74,0562024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 81.6%2024 5-year
- Black
- 3.3%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 10.8%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+35.9 in 1932MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+64.1 in 1904MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State Senate District 21, MN · twin score 96.8
presidential history
Party record book
Minnesota 16th State Senate District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Franklin D. Roosevelt1932
66.5%
18,373 votes · D+35.9 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Lyndon B. Johnson, 1964 · 63.8%
Republican
Theodore Roosevelt1904
78.9%
8,602 votes · R+64.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Rutherford B. Hayes, 1876 · 76.4%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Jimmy Carter1976
23,436votes
57.1% of the vote · D+16.6 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Lyndon B. Johnson, 1964 · 22,768 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
30,254votes
66.4% of the vote · R+34.8 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 29,426 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
George McGovern1972
+20.1pts D vs U.S.
Place R+3.0 · U.S. R+23.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1932 · +18.1 pts
Republican
Theodore Roosevelt1904
+44.4pts R vs U.S.
Place R+64.1 · U.S. R+19.7 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · +35.0 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | R | 29.5%13,207 | 70.5%31,589 | 44,796 |
With a 2024 presidential margin of R+34.8, this rural district ranks among the state's most one-sided, reflecting the broader realignment of greater Minnesota's small-town and agricultural communities toward Republican candidates over the past decade.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 35.9 points in 1932 and a Republican high of 64.1 points in 1904. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 4.3 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 34.8 points.
A population of 85,283, a 82% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $74,056 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State Senate District 21 and State Senate District 19.
The state-senate districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Minnesota 16th State Senate District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-upper/27016/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.