- Lead
- 156
- Total
- 32,874
- vs nation
- D+1.9
- Turnout
- 67.8%
Clay County, MN
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
2024 turnout 67.8% of 48,735 citizens 18+
- Lead
- 1,314
- Total
- 32,239
- vs nation
- R+0.4
- Turnout
- 68.7%
- Lead
- 572
- Total
- 29,398
- vs nation
- R+4.0
- Turnout
- 64.8%
- Lead
- 2,288
- Total
- 28,886
- vs nation
- D+4.1
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 4,688
- Total
- 29,259
- vs nation
- D+8.8
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 1,376
- Total
- 27,737
- vs nation
- R+2.5
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 1,584
- Total
- 23,358
- vs nation
- R+7.3
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 1,712
- Total
- 21,319
- vs nation
- R+0.5
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+0.5MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 66,0592024 5-year
- Population density
- 63 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 1,045 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $81,1722024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 83.5%2024 5-year
- Black
- 4.6%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 5.0%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+38.6 in 1932MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+64.3 in 1904MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Cass County, ND · twin score 93.3
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 67.8%33,047 participants ÷ 48,735 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +22.1 ptsPresidential-dependent
- Drop-off versus state
- +2.2 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 45.7%–51.0%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 29,748 | 45,941 | 64.8% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 24,707 | 46,402 | 53.2% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 32,409 | 47,165 | 68.7% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 22,386 | 48,065 | 46.6% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 33,047 | 48,735 | 67.8% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
110 precincts · 32,874 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -MOORHEAD CITY W-2 P-05MOORHEAD CITY W-2 P-05 | 1,332 | 1,061 | 55 | 2,448 | 54.4% | 43.3% | D+11.1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -DILWORTH CITYDILWORTH CITY | 1,054 | 1,262 | 61 | 2,377 | 44.3% | 53.1% | R+8.8 |
| Precinct -MOORHEAD CITY W-1 P-03MOORHEAD CITY W-1 P-03 | 1,419 | 773 | 61 | 2,253 | 63.0% | 34.3% | D+28.7 |
| Precinct -MOORHEAD CITY W-4 P-12MOORHEAD CITY W-4 P-12 | 1,153 | 868 | 61 | 2,082 | 55.4% | 41.7% | D+13.7 |
| Precinct -MOORHEAD CITY W-4 P-13MOORHEAD CITY W-4 P-13 | 1,043 | 966 | 38 | 2,047 | 51.0% | 47.2% | D+3.8 |
| Precinct -MOORHEAD CITY W-3 P-10MOORHEAD CITY W-3 P-10 | 1,088 | 881 | 41 | 2,010 | 54.1% | 43.8% | D+10.3 |
| Precinct -MOORHEAD CITY W-1 P-02MOORHEAD CITY W-1 P-02 | 979 | 884 | 46 | 1,909 | 51.3% | 46.3% | D+5.0 |
| Precinct -MOORHEAD CITY W-3 P-08MOORHEAD CITY W-3 P-08 | 1,163 | 635 | 44 | 1,842 | 63.1% | 34.5% | D+28.7 |
| Precinct -MOORHEAD CITY W-3 P-09MOORHEAD CITY W-3 P-09 | 955 | 702 | 35 | 1,692 | 56.4% | 41.5% | D+15.0 |
| Precinct -MOORHEAD CITY W-2 P-04MOORHEAD CITY W-2 P-04 | 827 | 596 | 39 | 1,462 | 56.6% | 40.8% | D+15.8 |
| Precinct -HAWLEY CITYHAWLEY CITY | 435 | 776 | 27 | 1,238 | 35.1% | 62.7% | R+27.5 |
| Precinct -MOORHEAD CITY W-1 P-01MOORHEAD CITY W-1 P-01 | 514 | 602 | 30 | 1,146 | 44.9% | 52.5% | R+7.7 |
| Precinct -MOORHEAD CITY W-2 P-07MOORHEAD CITY W-2 P-07 | 512 | 328 | 27 | 867 | 59.1% | 37.8% | D+21.2 |
| Precinct -MOORHEAD CITY W-4 P-11MOORHEAD CITY W-4 P-11 | 452 | 346 | 26 | 824 | 54.9% | 42.0% | D+12.9 |
| Precinct -GLYNDON CITYGLYNDON CITY | 248 | 434 | 13 | 695 | 35.7% | 62.4% | R+26.8 |
| Precinct -MOORHEAD CITY W-2 P-06MOORHEAD CITY W-2 P-06 | 373 | 233 | 20 | 626 | 59.6% | 37.2% | D+22.4 |
| Precinct -BARNESVILLE CITY W-1BARNESVILLE CITY W-1 | 244 | 315 | 20 | 579 | 42.1% | 54.4% | R+12.3 |
| Precinct -BARNESVILLE CITY W-3BARNESVILLE CITY W-3 | 188 | 303 | 13 | 504 | 37.3% | 60.1% | R+22.8 |
| Precinct -BARNESVILLE CITY W-2BARNESVILLE CITY W-2 | 186 | 277 | 15 | 478 | 38.9% | 57.9% | R+19.0 |
| Precinct -EGLON TWPEGLON TWP | 145 | 267 | 13 | 425 | 34.1% | 62.8% | R+28.7 |
| Precinct -PARKE TWPPARKE TWP | 126 | 244 | 5 | 375 | 33.6% | 65.1% | R+31.5 |
| Precinct -HAWLEY TWPHAWLEY TWP | 129 | 187 | 14 | 330 | 39.1% | 56.7% | R+17.6 |
| Precinct -SABIN CITYSABIN CITY | 98 | 210 | 8 | 316 | 31.0% | 66.5% | R+35.4 |
| Precinct -OAKPORT TWPOAKPORT TWP | 70 | 204 | 7 | 281 | 24.9% | 72.6% | R+47.7 |
| Precinct -RIVERTON TWPRIVERTON TWP | 83 | 183 | 7 | 273 | 30.4% | 67.0% | R+36.6 |
| Precinct -ULEN CITYULEN CITY | 99 | 151 | 6 | 256 | 38.7% | 59.0% | R+20.3 |
| Precinct -CROMWELL TWPCROMWELL TWP | 75 | 177 | 3 | 255 | 29.4% | 69.4% | R+40.0 |
| Precinct -ELMWOOD TWPELMWOOD TWP | 69 | 170 | 6 | 245 | 28.2% | 69.4% | R+41.2 |
| Precinct -GLYNDON TWPGLYNDON TWP | 56 | 139 | 4 | 199 | 28.1% | 69.8% | R+41.7 |
| Precinct -ELKTON TWPELKTON TWP | 79 | 105 | 4 | 188 | 42.0% | 55.9% | R+13.8 |
| Precinct -KRAGNES TWPKRAGNES TWP | 48 | 131 | 0 | 179 | 26.8% | 73.2% | R+46.4 |
| Precinct -HIGHLAND GROVE TWPHIGHLAND GROVE TWP | 59 | 114 | 2 | 175 | 33.7% | 65.1% | R+31.4 |
| Precinct -HUMBOLDT TWPHUMBOLDT TWP | 54 | 115 | 4 | 173 | 31.2% | 66.5% | R+35.3 |
| Precinct -TANSEM TWPTANSEM TWP | 66 | 99 | 3 | 168 | 39.3% | 58.9% | R+19.6 |
| Precinct -MOLAND TWPMOLAND TWP | 59 | 105 | 0 | 164 | 36.0% | 64.0% | R+28.0 |
| Precinct -SPRING PRAIRIE TWPSPRING PRAIRIE TWP | 47 | 94 | 3 | 144 | 32.6% | 65.3% | R+32.6 |
| Precinct -KURTZ TWPKURTZ TWP | 56 | 83 | 2 | 141 | 39.7% | 58.9% | R+19.1 |
| Precinct -ALLIANCE TWPALLIANCE TWP | 56 | 68 | 1 | 125 | 44.8% | 54.4% | R+9.6 |
| Precinct -BARNESVILLE TWPBARNESVILLE TWP | 37 | 78 | 1 | 116 | 31.9% | 67.2% | R+35.3 |
| Precinct -MORKEN TWPMORKEN TWP | 40 | 64 | 5 | 109 | 36.7% | 58.7% | R+22.0 |
| Precinct -SKREE TWPSKREE TWP | 45 | 62 | 2 | 109 | 41.3% | 56.9% | R+15.6 |
| Precinct -MOORHEAD TWP P-1MOORHEAD TWP P-1 | 44 | 61 | 2 | 107 | 41.1% | 57.0% | R+15.9 |
| Precinct -HITTERDAL CITYHITTERDAL CITY | 51 | 52 | 0 | 103 | 49.5% | 50.5% | R+1.0 |
| Precinct -FELTON CITYFELTON CITY | 27 | 70 | 4 | 101 | 26.7% | 69.3% | R+42.6 |
| Precinct -GOOSE PRAIRIE TWPGOOSE PRAIRIE TWP | 44 | 53 | 2 | 99 | 44.4% | 53.5% | R+9.1 |
| Precinct -ULEN TWPULEN TWP | 23 | 72 | 2 | 97 | 23.7% | 74.2% | R+50.5 |
| Precinct -HAGEN TWPHAGEN TWP | 18 | 56 | 1 | 75 | 24.0% | 74.7% | R+50.7 |
| Precinct -GEORGETOWN TWPGEORGETOWN TWP | 28 | 42 | 2 | 72 | 38.9% | 58.3% | R+19.4 |
| Precinct -HOLY CROSS TWPHOLY CROSS TWP | 21 | 49 | 0 | 70 | 30.0% | 70.0% | R+40.0 |
| Precinct -VIDING TWPVIDING TWP | 23 | 46 | 0 | 69 | 33.3% | 66.7% | R+33.3 |
| Precinct -KEENE TWPKEENE TWP | 28 | 35 | 1 | 64 | 43.8% | 54.7% | R+10.9 |
| Precinct -COMSTOCK CITYCOMSTOCK CITY | 11 | 39 | 2 | 52 | 21.2% | 75.0% | R+53.8 |
| Precinct -FLOWING TWPFLOWING TWP | 18 | 32 | 0 | 50 | 36.0% | 64.0% | R+28.0 |
| Precinct -GEORGETOWN CITYGEORGETOWN CITY | 12 | 34 | 0 | 46 | 26.1% | 73.9% | R+47.8 |
| Precinct -FELTON TWPFELTON TWP | 12 | 32 | 0 | 44 | 27.3% | 72.7% | R+45.5 |
| Alliance Twp. Voting District27_270270005 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Barnesville City W-127_270270010 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Barnesville City W-227_270270015 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Barnesville City W-327_270270020 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Barnesville Twp. Voting District27_270270025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Comstock Voting District27_270270030 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Cromwell Twp. Voting District27_270270035 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Dilworth Voting District27_270270040 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Eglon Twp. Voting District27_270270045 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Elkton Twp. Voting District27_270270050 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Elmwood Twp. Voting District27_270270055 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Felton Twp. Voting District27_270270065 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Felton Voting District27_270270060 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Flowing Twp. Voting District27_270270070 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Georgetown Twp. Voting District27_270270080 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Georgetown Voting District27_270270075 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Glyndon Twp. Voting District27_270270090 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Glyndon Voting District27_270270085 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Goose Prairie Twp. Voting District27_270270095 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Hagen Twp. Voting District27_270270100 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Hawley Twp. Voting District27_270270110 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Hawley Voting District27_270270105 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Highland Grove Twp. Voting District27_270270115 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Hitterdal Voting District27_270270120 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Holy Cross Twp. Voting District27_270270125 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Humboldt Twp. Voting District27_270270130 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Keene Twp. Voting District27_270270135 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Kragnes Twp. Voting District27_270270140 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Kurtz Twp. Voting District27_270270145 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Moland Twp. Voting District27_270270150 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Moorhead City W-1 P-127_270270155 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Moorhead City W-1 P-227_270270160 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Moorhead City W-1 P-327_270270165 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Moorhead City W-2 P-127_270270170 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Moorhead City W-2 P-227_270270175 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Moorhead City W-2 P-327_270270180 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Moorhead City W-3 P-127_270270185 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Moorhead City W-3 P-227_270270190 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Moorhead City W-3 P-327_270270195 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Moorhead City W-4 P-127_270270200 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Moorhead City W-4 P-227_270270205 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Moorhead City W-4 P-327_270270210 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Moorhead Twp. Voting District27_270270215 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Moorhead W-4 P-427_270270212 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Morken Twp. Voting District27_270270220 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Oakport Twp. Voting District27_270270225 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Parke Twp. Voting District27_270270230 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Riverton Twp. Voting District27_270270235 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Sabin Voting District27_270270240 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Skree Twp. Voting District27_270270245 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Spring Prairie Twp. Voting District27_270270250 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Tansem Twp. Voting District27_270270255 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Ulen Twp. Voting District27_270270265 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Ulen Voting District27_270270260 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Viding Twp. Voting District27_270270270 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
presidential history
Party record book
Clay County, MN · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 · 34 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Franklin D. Roosevelt1932
67.8%
5,938 votes · D+38.6
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1936 · 65.3%
Republican
Theodore Roosevelt1904
78.1%
2,185 votes · R+64.3
Runner-up · Warren G. Harding, 1920 · 73.0%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Barack Obama2008
16,666votes
57.0% of the vote · D+16.0
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · 16,357 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
15,965votes
48.6% of the vote · D+0.5
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 15,043 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Franklin D. Roosevelt1932
+20.8pts D vs U.S.
Place D+38.6 · U.S. D+17.8
Runner-up · Harry S. Truman, 1948 · +16.4 pts
Republican
Theodore Roosevelt1904
+44.6pts R vs U.S.
Place R+64.3 · U.S. R+19.7
Runner-up · Warren G. Harding, 1920 · +27.1 pts
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | R | 47.7%15,077 | 52.3%16,507 | 31,584 |
| 2020 | D | 59.7%17,254 | 40.3%11,653 | 28,907 |
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 36,338 |
| 2018 | 34,356 |
| 2020 | 38,526 |
| 2022 | 37,026 |
| 2024 | 41,124 |
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+157 net domestic migration · 2025
Net +1,670 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $48,341 in average income, against $82,824 for residents who stayed — 42% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+12.7 on average — 13 points more Republican-leaning than Clay County, MN itself (D+0.5).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Cass County, ND890R+8.3
- Otter Tail County, MN111R+34.1
- Becker County, MN98R+33.1
- Hennepin County, MN50D+42.4
- Grand Forks County, ND37R+18.0
- Polk County, MN34R+33.7
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Cass County, ND873
- Becker County, MN95
- Hennepin County, MN83
- Otter Tail County, MN72
- Ramsey County, MN35
- Norman County, MN28
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +382 |
| 2012 | −132 |
| 2013 | −11 |
| 2014 | +180 |
| 2015 | +376 |
| 2016 | +288 |
| 2017 | +210 |
| 2018 | −240 |
| 2019 | −294 |
| 2021 | −51 |
| 2022 | +95 |
| 2023 | +83 |
| 2024 | +627 |
| 2025 | +157 |
Home to Moorhead and Minnesota State University Moorhead, Clay County swings on college-town turnout balanced against surrounding agricultural precincts, producing presidential margins that have narrowed from double digits to fractions of a point over two decades.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 38.6 points in 1932 and a Republican high of 64.3 points in 1904. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 3.6 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 0.5 points.
A population of 66,059, a 84% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $81,172 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Cass County and Grand Forks County.
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Clay County, Minnesota. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/27027/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.