akashic
1876–2024
Merced County, California
Merced County·California

Merced County delivered a near-tie in 2024.

San Joaquin Valley county that flipped red in the 2024 presidential race

18762024·38 elections
Merced County, California · JPxG · Wikimedia Commons
Latest
R+4
in 2024
Archetype
Tossup
since the recent cycles
Population
290,201
2024 ACS
Most similar
San Joaquin County
CA · similarity 0.89
577 precincts · 86,684 votes cast
Trump · R+4
Margin
Turnout
Harris +50
Trump +50
Real precinct boundaries. Hover for vote totals.
YearWonMarginDemocraticRepublicanTotal
2024R
−4.3%
40,19043,95586,684
2020D
+10.5%
48,99139,39790,993
2016D
+12.1%
37,31728,72571,127
2012D
+8.7%
33,00527,58162,222
2008D
+8.3%
34,03128,70464,051
2004R
−14.3%
24,49132,77357,960
2000R
−6.7%
22,72626,10250,418
1996D
+2.0%
21,78620,84746,938
1992D
+4.4%
20,13317,98149,284
1988R
−3.8%
20,10521,71742,414
1984R
−18.8%
17,01224,99742,477
1980R
−5.8%
15,88618,04336,996
1976D
+5.6%
16,63714,84232,208
1972R
−11.7%
13,91417,73732,648
1968D
+10.1%
14,45311,59528,349
1964D
+37.6%
19,4318,81428,269
1960D
+12.9%
15,54511,99027,646
1956D
+7.8%
13,36611,43024,852
1952R
−6.3%
11,31612,86524,395
1948D
+12.3%
9,9597,72118,124
1944D
+16.9%
9,1926,51815,779
1940D
+26.2%
10,5016,10116,784
1936D
+47.2%
9,2083,23012,668
1932D
+39.9%
7,2022,92010,734
1928R
−21.7%
2,9704,6447,718
1924R
−42.4%
7103,5736,749
1920R
−35.0%
1,5373,4575,488
1916D
+9.6%
2,6372,1325,236
1912D
+46.8%
1,97804,228
1908R
−0.3%
1,1001,1072,483
1904R
−5.5%
8639721,981
1900D
+13.8%
1,0818111,950
1896D
+25.7%
1,1176531,802
1892D
+10.8%
9957821,972
1888D
+11.1%
9727731,796
1884D
+8.1%
9538091,779
1880D
+17.5%
7365161,256
1876D
+18.1%
8045581,362
Demographics
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
American
100.0%
African American
2.2%
Multiple ancestry combinations reported; no single grouping above 1%.
American Indian, Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian, and Pacific Islander combined.
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
0.0%
speak English only
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Catholic & Orthodox
33.9%
Other Christian
6.7%
Pentecostal & Holiness
1.7%
Baptist
1.4%
Mainline Protestant
0.6%
Methodist
0.5%
Non-Christian
0.3%
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 54.9% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.

Merced shifted to the Republican column by 4.4 points in 2024, a notable move for a majority-Hispanic agricultural county in California's Central Valley where dairy farming and field crops define the local economy.

The county's recent history is a story of close margins. The Democratic margin reached forty-seven points in 1936; the Republican margin reached forty-two points in 1924. Most other elections have been decided by single-digit points.

Merced County's demographics — a population of 290,201, a 32% non-Hispanic-white share, a median household income of $65,510 — situate the county close to national averages on several dimensions. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of San Joaquin County and Fresno County.