Akashic
1892–2024
Akashic
Merced, CA
presidential margin
2008D+8.32012D+8.72016D+12.12020D+10.52024R+4.4
full record · 1892 → 2024
R+4.4
2024
median income$65,510U.S. $80,734 · CA $99,122
median age31.8U.S. 39.1 · CA 37.9
poverty rate19.1%U.S. 12.5% · CA 12.0%
bachelor’s+ (25+)15.3%U.S. 35.6% · CA 36.6%
non-english52.7%U.S. 22.3% · CA 44.4%
race · ethnicity · ancestry
Mexican60.5%
Salvadoran0.6%
Puerto Rican0.3%
Portuguese4.8%
German4.3%
Irish3.3%
Asian Indian2.5%
Hmong1.9%
Filipino1.0%
African American†2.4%
African0.2%
religion
other traditions
Other Christian1.5%
Latter-day Saints1.0%
Black Protestant0.8%
Mainline0.6%
American Community Survey 2024 5-year (income, age, poverty, education, language, race, ancestry) · presidential returns from MIT Election Lab through 2024 · 2020 U.S. Religion Census (ASARB) — congregational adherents, unaffiliated is the unclaimed remainder.

Merced, CA, California

Akashic
Merced, CATrumpR+4.4
—
2024 presidential margin by county for Merced, CA, CAA map of the single county of Merced, CA, CA, outlined and filled by its 2024 presidential margin from deep red (Republican) through neutral to deep blue (Democratic), seated within the faint outlines of the surrounding states.Merced County, CA · R+4.4
How it voted
Share of the 2024 vote
Donald Trump ✓Republican50.9%43,955
Kamala HarrisDemocratic46.5%40,190
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.American Independent2.6%2,247
D+60
R+60
A single county, filled by its 2024 D-vs-R margin. Hover it for the full result.
County-level results (1 county) — table
2024 presidential result by county for Merced, CA, CA — winner and D-vs-R margin.
CountyWinnerMargin
Merced County, CARepublicanR+4.4
34 presidential elections
Third column names the leading third-party or independent finisher. Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024).
YearWonDemocraticRepublicanOtherMarginTotal
R
46.5%Harris40,190
50.9%Trump43,955
2.6%Kennedy2,247
−4.4%
86,392
D
53.8%Biden48,991
43.3%Trump39,397
2.9%Jorgensen2,605
+10.5%
90,993
D
52.5%Clinton37,317
40.4%Trump28,725
7.1%Johnson5,085
+12.1%
71,127
D
53.0%Obama33,005
44.3%Romney27,581
2.6%Johnson1,636
+8.7%
62,222
D
53.1%Obama34,031
44.8%McCain28,704
2.1%Nader1,316
+8.3%
64,051
R
42.3%Kerry24,491
56.5%Bush32,773
1.2%Badnarik696
−14.3%
57,960
R
45.1%Gore22,726
51.8%Bush26,102
3.2%Nader1,590
−6.7%
50,418
D
46.4%Clinton21,786
44.4%Dole20,847
9.2%Perot4,305
+2.0%
46,938
D
40.9%Clinton20,133
36.5%Bush17,981
22.7%Perot11,170
+4.4%
49,284
R
47.4%Dukakis20,105
51.2%Bush21,717
1.4%Paul592
−3.8%
42,414
R
40.0%Mondale17,012
58.8%Reagan24,997
1.1%Bergland468
−18.8%
42,477
R
42.9%Carter15,886
48.8%Reagan18,043
8.3%Anderson3,067
−5.8%
36,996
D
51.7%Carter16,637
46.1%Ford14,842
2.3%Macbride729
+5.6%
32,208
R
42.6%McGovern13,914
54.3%Nixon17,737
3.1%Schmitz997
−11.7%
32,648
D
51.0%Humphrey14,453
40.9%Nixon11,595
8.1%Wallace2,301
+10.1%
28,349
D
68.7%Johnson19,431
31.2%Goldwater8,814
0.1%Hass24
+37.6%
28,269
D
56.2%Kennedy15,545
43.4%Nixon11,990
0.4%Byrd111
+12.9%
27,646
D
53.8%Stevenson13,366
46.0%Eisenhower11,430
0.2%Andrews56
+7.8%
24,852
R
46.4%Stevenson11,316
52.7%Eisenhower12,865
0.9%Hallinan214
−6.3%
24,395
D
54.9%Truman9,959
42.6%Dewey7,721
2.4%Thurmond444
+12.3%
18,124
D
58.3%Roosevelt9,192
41.3%Dewey6,518
0.4%Thomas69
+16.9%
15,779
D
62.6%Roosevelt10,501
36.4%Willkie6,101
1.1%Thomas182
+26.2%
16,784
D
72.7%Roosevelt9,208
25.5%Landon3,230
1.8%Lemke230
+47.2%
12,668
D
67.1%Roosevelt7,202
27.2%Hoover2,920
5.7%Thomas612
+39.9%
10,734
R
38.5%Smith2,970
60.2%Hoover4,644
1.3%Thomas104
−21.7%
7,718
R
10.5%Davis710
52.9%Coolidge3,573
36.5%La Follette2,466
−42.4%
6,749
R
28.0%Cox1,537
63.0%Harding3,457
9.0%Debs494
−35.0%
5,488
D
50.4%Wilson2,637
40.7%Hughes2,132
8.9%Benson467
+9.6%
5,236
O
46.8%Wilson1,978
0.0%Taft0
53.2%Roosevelt2,250
Roosevelt +6.4
4,228
R
44.3%Bryan1,100
44.6%Taft1,107
11.1%Debs276
−0.3%
2,483
R
43.6%Parker863
49.1%Roosevelt972
7.4%Debs146
−5.5%
1,981
D
55.4%Bryan1,081
41.6%McKinley811
3.0%Woolley58
+13.8%
1,950
D
62.0%Bryan1,117
36.2%McKinley653
1.8%Palmer32
+25.7%
1,802
D
50.5%Cleveland995
39.7%Harrison782
9.9%Weaver195
+10.8%
1,972
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
Presidential margin over timeDemocratic-minus-Republican presidential margin from 1892 to 2024. Most recent: −4.4% in 2024.flipped R · 2024−4.4%DR18922024
Presidential margin over time
YearMargin (D minus R)
1892+10.8%
1896+25.7%
1900+13.8%
1904−5.5%
1908−0.3%
1912+46.8%
1916+9.6%
1920−35.0%
1924−42.4%
1928−21.7%
1932+39.9%
1936+47.2%
1940+26.2%
1944+16.9%
1948+12.3%
1952−6.3%
1956+7.8%
1960+12.9%
1964+37.6%
1968+10.1%
1972−11.7%
1976+5.6%
1980−5.8%
1984−18.8%
1988−3.8%
1992+4.4%
1996+2.0%
2000−6.7%
2004−14.3%
2008+8.3%
2012+8.7%
2016+12.1%
2020+10.5%
2024−4.4%
DemocraticRepublican
voter registration
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Voter registration in Merced, CARegistered voters by party of registration, 2022–2024. Latest total 130,472 in 2024.32.6K65.2K97.9K130.5K130.5K20222024
DemocraticRepublicanUnaffiliatedOther parties
Voter registration in Merced, CA
YearTotal registeredDemocraticRepublicanUnaffiliatedOther
2022124,82753,58135,40027,1528,694
2024130,47253,54838,80628,4329,686
Source: California Secretary of State

Merced's population is majority Latino and among the youngest in California, with UC Merced's expansion adding a growing student demographic that analysts watch as a bellwether for inland Valley turnout trends.

Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 47.2 points in 1936 and a Republican high of 42.4 points in 1924. Between 2020 and 2024 the metro moved 14.9 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 4.4 points.

A population of 290,201, a 23% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $65,510 describe the metro. The metro's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Modesto, CA and Fresno, CA.

Political twins — metros

The metros whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.

Modesto, CA
95.4twin score
elasticity% Latino% White≠ % Catholic
Fresno, CA
93.1twin score
% Latino% White2020 margin≠ population scale
Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
89.5twin score
elasticity% Latino% White≠ 12-yr trend

Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.

Compare two places, side by side

Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →

Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Merced, CA, California. Akashic. https://akashic.app/cbsa/32900/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Places within Merced, CA

counties1
Merced County

Frequently asked questions

How did Merced, CA, California vote in 2024?
In 2024, Merced, CA, California voted Republican by 4.4 points (R+4.4), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 86,392 votes cast, 40,190 went Democratic and 43,955 went Republican.
When did Merced, CA, California last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Merced, CA, California voted Democratic was 2020.
How many people live in Merced, CA, California?
Merced, CA, California has a population of 290,201 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Merced, CA, California?
Median household income in Merced, CA, California is $65,510 — below the national median of $80,734. The California state median is $99,122.
What is the political history of Merced, CA, California?
Akashic tracks 34 presidential elections in Merced, CA, California from 1892 to 2024. Of those, 20 went Democratic and 13 went Republican.