Akashic
1892–2024
Akashic
Modesto, CA
presidential margin
2008D+1.72012D+2.72016D+1.82020D+0.82024R+11.0
full record · 1892 → 2024
R+11.0
2024
median income$81,468U.S. $80,734 · CA $99,122
median age34.9U.S. 39.1 · CA 37.9
poverty rate13.5%U.S. 12.5% · CA 12.0%
bachelor’s+ (25+)19.6%U.S. 35.6% · CA 36.6%
non-english43.0%U.S. 22.3% · CA 44.4%
race · ethnicity · ancestry
Mexican46.0%
Salvadoran0.8%
Puerto Rican0.6%
German6.7%
Irish6.0%
English6.0%
Asian Indian1.8%
Filipino1.2%
Chinese0.7%
African American†2.1%
Aztec0.4%
Fijian0.3%
religion
other traditions
Other Christian1.8%
Mainline0.9%
Muslim0.5%
Black Protestant0.5%
American Community Survey 2024 5-year (income, age, poverty, education, language, race, ancestry) · presidential returns from MIT Election Lab through 2024 · 2020 U.S. Religion Census (ASARB) — congregational adherents, unaffiliated is the unclaimed remainder.

Modesto, CA, California

Akashic
Modesto, CATrumpR+11.0
—
2024 presidential margin by county for Modesto, CA, CAA map of the single county of Modesto, CA, CA, outlined and filled by its 2024 presidential margin from deep red (Republican) through neutral to deep blue (Democratic), seated within the faint outlines of the surrounding states.Stanislaus County, CA · R+11.0
How it voted
Share of the 2024 vote
Donald Trump ✓Republican54.2%106,986
Kamala HarrisDemocratic43.2%85,347
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.American Independent2.6%5,139
D+60
R+60
A single county, filled by its 2024 D-vs-R margin. Hover it for the full result.
County-level results (1 county) — table
2024 presidential result by county for Modesto, CA, CA — winner and D-vs-R margin.
CountyWinnerMargin
Stanislaus County, CARepublicanR+11.0
34 presidential elections
Third column names the leading third-party or independent finisher. Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024).
YearWonDemocraticRepublicanOtherMarginTotal
R
43.2%Harris85,347
54.2%Trump106,986
2.6%Kennedy5,139
−11.0%
197,472
D
49.0%Biden105,841
48.2%Trump104,145
2.8%Jorgensen6,001
+0.8%
215,987
D
46.8%Clinton81,647
45.0%Trump78,494
8.2%Johnson14,265
+1.8%
174,406
D
49.9%Obama77,724
47.1%Romney73,459
3.0%Johnson4,633
+2.7%
155,816
D
49.7%Obama80,279
48.0%McCain77,497
2.3%Nader3,736
+1.7%
161,512
R
40.4%Kerry58,829
58.6%Bush85,407
1.0%Badnarik1,388
−18.3%
145,624
R
44.0%Gore56,448
52.4%Bush67,188
3.6%Nader4,631
−8.4%
128,267
D
45.9%Clinton53,738
44.8%Dole52,403
9.3%Perot10,866
+1.1%
117,007
D
40.9%Clinton52,415
36.9%Bush47,275
22.1%Perot28,315
+4.0%
128,005
R
45.9%Dukakis44,685
53.1%Bush51,648
1.0%Paul982
−7.2%
97,315
R
39.9%Mondale37,459
59.2%Reagan55,665
0.9%Bergland861
−19.4%
93,985
R
40.0%Carter33,683
49.4%Reagan41,595
10.6%Anderson8,908
−9.4%
84,186
D
52.3%Carter38,448
44.8%Ford32,937
2.8%Macbride2,080
+7.5%
73,465
R
45.5%McGovern35,005
51.4%Nixon39,521
3.0%Schmitz2,341
−5.9%
76,867
D
48.1%Humphrey31,316
45.5%Nixon29,573
6.4%Wallace4,174
+2.7%
65,063
D
66.1%Johnson43,078
33.7%Goldwater21,973
0.1%Hass77
+32.4%
65,128
D
49.8%Kennedy30,302
49.6%Nixon30,213
0.6%Byrd375
+0.1%
60,890
D
51.0%Stevenson28,040
48.6%Eisenhower26,695
0.3%Andrews192
+2.4%
54,927
R
43.7%Stevenson22,271
55.2%Eisenhower28,090
1.1%Hallinan552
−11.4%
50,913
R
47.8%Truman18,350
48.4%Dewey18,564
3.8%Thurmond1,457
−0.6%
38,371
D
51.3%Roosevelt15,537
47.2%Dewey14,297
1.4%Thomas437
+4.1%
30,271
D
52.0%Roosevelt16,494
46.6%Willkie14,803
1.4%Thomas449
+5.3%
31,746
D
63.1%Roosevelt15,341
35.4%Landon8,613
1.4%Lemke348
+27.7%
24,302
D
58.6%Roosevelt12,336
36.2%Hoover7,614
5.2%Thomas1,092
+22.4%
21,042
R
31.6%Smith5,063
67.1%Hoover10,753
1.3%Thomas203
−35.5%
16,019
R
9.6%Davis1,274
56.9%Coolidge7,569
33.6%La Follette4,469
−47.3%
13,312
R
26.7%Cox3,055
61.6%Harding7,038
11.6%Debs1,330
−34.9%
11,423
D
47.0%Wilson5,490
37.7%Hughes4,401
15.4%Benson1,796
+9.3%
11,687
O
39.6%Wilson3,127
0.0%Taft0
60.4%Roosevelt4,773
Roosevelt +20.8
7,900
R
38.8%Bryan1,390
46.5%Taft1,663
14.7%Debs527
−7.6%
3,580
R
40.5%Parker1,110
52.4%Roosevelt1,437
7.1%Debs196
−11.9%
2,743
D
52.6%Bryan1,270
43.8%McKinley1,058
3.6%Woolley87
+8.8%
2,415
D
56.8%Bryan1,398
40.9%McKinley1,007
2.3%Palmer56
+15.9%
2,461
D
53.7%Cleveland1,369
38.9%Harrison992
7.4%Weaver189
+14.8%
2,550
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
Presidential margin over timeDemocratic-minus-Republican presidential margin from 1892 to 2024. Most recent: −11.0% in 2024.flipped R · 2024−11.0%DR18922024
Presidential margin over time
YearMargin (D minus R)
1892+14.8%
1896+15.9%
1900+8.8%
1904−11.9%
1908−7.6%
1912+39.6%
1916+9.3%
1920−34.9%
1924−47.3%
1928−35.5%
1932+22.4%
1936+27.7%
1940+5.3%
1944+4.1%
1948−0.6%
1952−11.4%
1956+2.4%
1960+0.1%
1964+32.4%
1968+2.7%
1972−5.9%
1976+7.5%
1980−9.4%
1984−19.4%
1988−7.2%
1992+4.0%
1996+1.1%
2000−8.4%
2004−18.3%
2008+1.7%
2012+2.7%
2016+1.8%
2020+0.8%
2024−11.0%
DemocraticRepublican
voter registration
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Voter registration in Modesto, CARegistered voters by party of registration, 2022–2024. Latest total 290,690 in 2024.72.7K145.3K218K290.7K290.7K20222024
DemocraticRepublicanUnaffiliatedOther parties
Voter registration in Modesto, CA
YearTotal registeredDemocraticRepublicanUnaffiliatedOther
2022280,489109,15096,32953,44421,566
2024290,690108,581102,72455,66323,722
Source: California Secretary of State

The Modesto metro sits at the heart of California's San Joaquin Valley, where agricultural employment and a rapidly diversifying suburban population have produced competitive margins in statewide contests that often track national mood swings.

Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 39.6 points in 1912 and a Republican high of 47.3 points in 1924. Between 2020 and 2024 the metro moved 11.7 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 11.0 points.

A population of 553,990, a 36% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $81,468 describe the metro. The metro's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Merced, CA and Fresno, CA.

Political twins — metros

The metros whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.

Merced, CA
95.4twin score
elasticity% Latino% White≠ % Catholic
Fresno, CA
94.8twin score
% Latinoelasticity2016 margin≠ % Asian
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
93.9twin score
elasticity% Latino% White≠ population scale

Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.

Compare two places, side by side

Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →

Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Modesto, CA, California. Akashic. https://akashic.app/cbsa/33700/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Places within Modesto, CA

counties1
Stanislaus County

Frequently asked questions

How did Modesto, CA, California vote in 2024?
In 2024, Modesto, CA, California voted Republican by 11.0 points (R+11.0), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 197,472 votes cast, 85,347 went Democratic and 106,986 went Republican.
When did Modesto, CA, California last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Modesto, CA, California voted Democratic was 2020.
How many people live in Modesto, CA, California?
Modesto, CA, California has a population of 553,990 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Modesto, CA, California?
Median household income in Modesto, CA, California is $81,468 — above the national median of $80,734. The California state median is $99,122.
What is the political history of Modesto, CA, California?
Akashic tracks 34 presidential elections in Modesto, CA, California from 1892 to 2024. Of those, 19 went Democratic and 14 went Republican.