- Lead
- 2,951
- Total
- 94,523
- vs nation
- R+1.7
- Turnout
- 61.0%
Butte County, CA
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
2024 turnout 61.0% of 157,639 citizens 18+
- Lead
- 1,996
- Total
- 102,565
- vs nation
- R+2.5
- Turnout
- 61.0%
- Lead
- 3,577
- Total
- 97,002
- vs nation
- R+5.8
- Turnout
- 56.8%
- Lead
- 1,810
- Total
- 91,021
- vs nation
- R+5.8
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 2,307
- Total
- 98,707
- vs nation
- R+4.9
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 9,214
- Total
- 96,157
- vs nation
- R+7.1
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 14,246
- Total
- 83,721
- vs nation
- R+17.5
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 8,310
- Total
- 79,550
- vs nation
- R+19.0
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+3.1MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 207,9292024 5-year
- Median household income
- $67,9282024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 65.1%2024 5-year
- Black
- 1.7%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 20.0%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+45.7 in 1912MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+38.2 in 1920MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Washoe County, NV · twin score 89.7
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 61.0%96,106 participants ÷ 157,639 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +16.1 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- -9.9 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 44.8%–50.7%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 97,002 | 170,635 | 56.8% | C/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 91,124 | 173,840 | 52.4% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 104,151 | 170,879 | 61.0% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 73,211 | 163,370 | 44.8% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 96,106 | 157,639 | 61.0% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 148/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
130 precincts · 93,795 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -22082208 | 1,920 | 1,805 | 120 | 3,845 | 49.9% | 46.9% | D+3.0 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -52025202 | 1,353 | 922 | 67 | 2,342 | 57.8% | 39.4% | D+18.4 |
| Precinct -32153215 | 1,483 | 509 | 119 | 2,111 | 70.3% | 24.1% | D+46.1 |
| Precinct -28022802 | 661 | 1,149 | 54 | 1,864 | 35.5% | 61.6% | R+26.2 |
| Precinct -32143214 | 1,160 | 496 | 79 | 1,735 | 66.9% | 28.6% | D+38.3 |
| Precinct -32163216 | 1,273 | 380 | 68 | 1,721 | 74.0% | 22.1% | D+51.9 |
| Precinct -22142214 | 897 | 741 | 64 | 1,702 | 52.7% | 43.5% | D+9.2 |
| Precinct -22052205 | 822 | 752 | 60 | 1,634 | 50.3% | 46.0% | D+4.3 |
| Precinct -55025502 | 570 | 937 | 45 | 1,552 | 36.7% | 60.4% | R+23.6 |
| Precinct -52035203 | 882 | 612 | 46 | 1,540 | 57.3% | 39.7% | D+17.5 |
| Precinct -22092209 | 878 | 545 | 62 | 1,485 | 59.1% | 36.7% | D+22.4 |
| Precinct -55015501 | 517 | 921 | 44 | 1,482 | 34.9% | 62.1% | R+27.3 |
| Precinct -48084808 | 678 | 731 | 52 | 1,461 | 46.4% | 50.0% | R+3.6 |
| Precinct -58095809 | 474 | 881 | 44 | 1,399 | 33.9% | 63.0% | R+29.1 |
| Precinct -55045504 | 470 | 886 | 41 | 1,397 | 33.6% | 63.4% | R+29.8 |
| Precinct -55035503 | 500 | 825 | 46 | 1,371 | 36.5% | 60.2% | R+23.7 |
| Precinct -58105810 | 531 | 793 | 41 | 1,365 | 38.9% | 58.1% | R+19.2 |
| Precinct -18211821 | 346 | 927 | 48 | 1,321 | 26.2% | 70.2% | R+44.0 |
| Precinct -42054205 | 797 | 469 | 52 | 1,318 | 60.5% | 35.6% | D+24.9 |
| Precinct -48104810 | 411 | 849 | 44 | 1,304 | 31.5% | 65.1% | R+33.6 |
| Precinct -32083208 | 845 | 367 | 69 | 1,281 | 66.0% | 28.6% | D+37.3 |
| Precinct -43024302 | 518 | 699 | 41 | 1,258 | 41.2% | 55.6% | R+14.4 |
| Precinct -32113211 | 747 | 473 | 32 | 1,252 | 59.7% | 37.8% | D+21.9 |
| Precinct -58115811 | 503 | 717 | 31 | 1,251 | 40.2% | 57.3% | R+17.1 |
| Precinct -22102210 | 663 | 494 | 49 | 1,206 | 55.0% | 41.0% | D+14.0 |
| Precinct -32013201 | 829 | 340 | 34 | 1,203 | 68.9% | 28.3% | D+40.6 |
| Precinct -18121812 | 451 | 713 | 27 | 1,191 | 37.9% | 59.9% | R+22.0 |
| Precinct -18161816 | 351 | 803 | 20 | 1,174 | 29.9% | 68.4% | R+38.5 |
| Precinct -43014301 | 473 | 667 | 31 | 1,171 | 40.4% | 57.0% | R+16.6 |
| Precinct -48094809 | 356 | 761 | 36 | 1,153 | 30.9% | 66.0% | R+35.1 |
| Precinct -32093209 | 775 | 280 | 55 | 1,110 | 69.8% | 25.2% | D+44.6 |
| Precinct -32033203 | 765 | 300 | 44 | 1,109 | 69.0% | 27.1% | D+41.9 |
| Precinct -22132213 | 591 | 479 | 30 | 1,100 | 53.7% | 43.5% | D+10.2 |
| Precinct -48044804 | 261 | 783 | 17 | 1,061 | 24.6% | 73.8% | R+49.2 |
| Precinct -52055205 | 587 | 429 | 37 | 1,053 | 55.7% | 40.7% | D+15.0 |
| Precinct -22152215 | 575 | 425 | 34 | 1,034 | 55.6% | 41.1% | D+14.5 |
| Precinct -22062206 | 564 | 432 | 27 | 1,023 | 55.1% | 42.2% | D+12.9 |
| Precinct -52015201 | 552 | 412 | 19 | 983 | 56.2% | 41.9% | D+14.2 |
| Precinct -32023202 | 691 | 232 | 54 | 977 | 70.7% | 23.7% | D+47.0 |
| Precinct -18181818 | 247 | 678 | 24 | 949 | 26.0% | 71.4% | R+45.4 |
| Precinct -48064806 | 409 | 508 | 32 | 949 | 43.1% | 53.5% | R+10.4 |
| Precinct -48164816 | 301 | 617 | 27 | 945 | 31.9% | 65.3% | R+33.4 |
| Precinct -32123212 | 588 | 320 | 36 | 944 | 62.3% | 33.9% | D+28.4 |
| Precinct -42024202 | 497 | 394 | 36 | 927 | 53.6% | 42.5% | D+11.1 |
| Precinct -11021102 | 277 | 620 | 24 | 921 | 30.1% | 67.3% | R+37.2 |
| Precinct -28042804 | 323 | 577 | 21 | 921 | 35.1% | 62.6% | R+27.6 |
| Precinct -18171817 | 207 | 683 | 18 | 908 | 22.8% | 75.2% | R+52.4 |
| Precinct -18131813 | 269 | 600 | 20 | 889 | 30.3% | 67.5% | R+37.2 |
| Precinct -48154815 | 266 | 593 | 22 | 881 | 30.2% | 67.3% | R+37.1 |
| Precinct -52075207 | 600 | 227 | 49 | 876 | 68.5% | 25.9% | D+42.6 |
| Precinct -18041804 | 237 | 615 | 22 | 874 | 27.1% | 70.4% | R+43.2 |
| Precinct -22172217 | 558 | 226 | 38 | 822 | 67.9% | 27.5% | D+40.4 |
| Precinct -48074807 | 463 | 326 | 31 | 820 | 56.5% | 39.8% | D+16.7 |
| Precinct -58035803 | 350 | 437 | 30 | 817 | 42.8% | 53.5% | R+10.6 |
| Precinct -48034803 | 169 | 628 | 9 | 806 | 21.0% | 77.9% | R+56.9 |
| Precinct -42014201 | 449 | 305 | 39 | 793 | 56.6% | 38.5% | D+18.2 |
| Precinct -32103210 | 428 | 292 | 32 | 752 | 56.9% | 38.8% | D+18.1 |
| Precinct -32133213 | 555 | 166 | 28 | 749 | 74.1% | 22.2% | D+51.9 |
| Precinct -32073207 | 433 | 272 | 35 | 740 | 58.5% | 36.8% | D+21.8 |
| Precinct -58045804 | 368 | 291 | 28 | 687 | 53.6% | 42.4% | D+11.2 |
| Precinct -28052805 | 356 | 287 | 23 | 666 | 53.5% | 43.1% | D+10.4 |
| Precinct -18061806 | 206 | 440 | 11 | 657 | 31.4% | 67.0% | R+35.6 |
| Precinct -11101110 | 304 | 333 | 13 | 650 | 46.8% | 51.2% | R+4.5 |
| Precinct -52065206 | 342 | 271 | 23 | 636 | 53.8% | 42.6% | D+11.2 |
| Precinct -51015101 | 227 | 385 | 23 | 635 | 35.7% | 60.6% | R+24.9 |
| Precinct -58015801 | 209 | 404 | 22 | 635 | 32.9% | 63.6% | R+30.7 |
| Precinct -22042204 | 365 | 243 | 25 | 633 | 57.7% | 38.4% | D+19.3 |
| Precinct -22072207 | 349 | 239 | 32 | 620 | 56.3% | 38.5% | D+17.7 |
| Precinct -11011101 | 193 | 405 | 13 | 611 | 31.6% | 66.3% | R+34.7 |
| Precinct -42044204 | 399 | 186 | 26 | 611 | 65.3% | 30.4% | D+34.9 |
| Precinct -22032203 | 331 | 250 | 23 | 604 | 54.8% | 41.4% | D+13.4 |
| Precinct -18141814 | 191 | 375 | 21 | 587 | 32.5% | 63.9% | R+31.3 |
| Precinct -48174817 | 87 | 482 | 6 | 575 | 15.1% | 83.8% | R+68.7 |
| Precinct -28012801 | 164 | 348 | 11 | 523 | 31.4% | 66.5% | R+35.2 |
| Precinct -11081108 | 219 | 272 | 22 | 513 | 42.7% | 53.0% | R+10.3 |
| Precinct -32063206 | 314 | 182 | 17 | 513 | 61.2% | 35.5% | D+25.7 |
| Precinct -11121112 | 143 | 328 | 10 | 481 | 29.7% | 68.2% | R+38.5 |
| Precinct -22012201 | 207 | 254 | 15 | 476 | 43.5% | 53.4% | R+9.9 |
| Precinct -58085808 | 119 | 314 | 16 | 449 | 26.5% | 69.9% | R+43.4 |
| Precinct -22112211 | 246 | 173 | 18 | 437 | 56.3% | 39.6% | D+16.7 |
| Precinct -32043204 | 246 | 170 | 18 | 434 | 56.7% | 39.2% | D+17.5 |
| Precinct -58125812 | 152 | 239 | 12 | 403 | 37.7% | 59.3% | R+21.6 |
| Precinct -18191819 | 116 | 276 | 4 | 396 | 29.3% | 69.7% | R+40.4 |
| Precinct -58065806 | 146 | 232 | 16 | 394 | 37.1% | 58.9% | R+21.8 |
| Precinct -11061106 | 156 | 216 | 15 | 387 | 40.3% | 55.8% | R+15.5 |
| Precinct -18021802 | 119 | 260 | 4 | 383 | 31.1% | 67.9% | R+36.8 |
| Precinct -51025102 | 135 | 196 | 15 | 346 | 39.0% | 56.6% | R+17.6 |
| Precinct -58025802 | 146 | 171 | 15 | 332 | 44.0% | 51.5% | R+7.5 |
| Precinct -11051105 | 132 | 175 | 12 | 319 | 41.4% | 54.9% | R+13.5 |
| Precinct -48124812 | 106 | 193 | 7 | 306 | 34.6% | 63.1% | R+28.4 |
| Precinct -48134813 | 50 | 234 | 3 | 287 | 17.4% | 81.5% | R+64.1 |
| Precinct -18031803 | 91 | 184 | 7 | 282 | 32.3% | 65.2% | R+33.0 |
| Precinct -58055805 | 136 | 138 | 8 | 282 | 48.2% | 48.9% | R+0.7 |
| Precinct -11041104 | 97 | 151 | 8 | 256 | 37.9% | 59.0% | R+21.1 |
| Precinct -18051805 | 68 | 170 | 4 | 242 | 28.1% | 70.2% | R+42.1 |
| Precinct -11071107 | 107 | 124 | 7 | 238 | 45.0% | 52.1% | R+7.1 |
| Precinct -51035103 | 87 | 135 | 5 | 227 | 38.3% | 59.5% | R+21.1 |
| Precinct -18071807 | 55 | 157 | 2 | 214 | 25.7% | 73.4% | R+47.7 |
| Precinct -11151115 | 54 | 151 | 6 | 211 | 25.6% | 71.6% | R+46.0 |
| Precinct -38013801 | 111 | 82 | 4 | 197 | 56.3% | 41.6% | D+14.7 |
| Precinct -18201820 | 52 | 130 | 2 | 184 | 28.3% | 70.7% | R+42.4 |
| Precinct -11141114 | 55 | 119 | 8 | 182 | 30.2% | 65.4% | R+35.2 |
| Precinct -42034203 | 84 | 86 | 8 | 178 | 47.2% | 48.3% | R+1.1 |
| Precinct -18231823 | 49 | 126 | 2 | 177 | 27.7% | 71.2% | R+43.5 |
| Precinct -58075807 | 60 | 113 | 3 | 176 | 34.1% | 64.2% | R+30.1 |
| Precinct -28032803 | 93 | 79 | 3 | 175 | 53.1% | 45.1% | D+8.0 |
| Precinct -18091809 | 38 | 119 | 6 | 163 | 23.3% | 73.0% | R+49.7 |
| Precinct -48024802 | 54 | 103 | 4 | 161 | 33.5% | 64.0% | R+30.4 |
| Precinct -18151815 | 46 | 104 | 2 | 152 | 30.3% | 68.4% | R+38.2 |
| Precinct -11111111 | 72 | 72 | 3 | 147 | 49.0% | 49.0% | Exact tie |
| Precinct -52045204 | 55 | 58 | 6 | 119 | 46.2% | 48.7% | R+2.5 |
| Precinct -18101810 | 38 | 76 | 1 | 115 | 33.0% | 66.1% | R+33.0 |
| Precinct -22122212 | 70 | 36 | 6 | 112 | 62.5% | 32.1% | D+30.4 |
| Precinct -18221822 | 17 | 78 | 2 | 97 | 17.5% | 80.4% | R+62.9 |
| Precinct -32053205 | 45 | 30 | 3 | 78 | 57.7% | 38.5% | D+19.2 |
| Precinct -58135813 | 22 | 54 | 2 | 78 | 28.2% | 69.2% | R+41.0 |
| Precinct -32173217 | 50 | 17 | 3 | 70 | 71.4% | 24.3% | D+47.1 |
| Precinct -22022202 | 37 | 25 | 3 | 65 | 56.9% | 38.5% | D+18.5 |
| Precinct -11031103 | 24 | 38 | 1 | 63 | 38.1% | 60.3% | R+22.2 |
| Precinct -18011801 | 16 | 27 | 0 | 43 | 37.2% | 62.8% | R+25.6 |
| Precinct -48144814 | 6 | 17 | 2 | 25 | 24.0% | 68.0% | R+44.0 |
| Precinct -48054805 | 6 | 12 | 1 | 19 | 31.6% | 63.2% | R+31.6 |
| Precinct -18111811 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 17 | 58.8% | 35.3% | D+23.5 |
| Precinct -11091109 | 5 | 11 | 0 | 16 | 31.3% | 68.8% | R+37.5 |
| Precinct -11131113 | 2 | 12 | 1 | 15 | 13.3% | 80.0% | R+66.7 |
| Precinct -22162216 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 11 | 63.6% | 36.4% | D+27.3 |
| Precinct -11161116 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Precinct -18081808 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Precinct -48014801 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Precinct -48114811 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
Presidential margin, 1876–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1876 | −0.9% |
| 1880 | +0.5% |
| 1884 | −1.2% |
| 1888 | +0.5% |
| 1892 | −0.8% |
| 1896 | +1.0% |
| 1900 | −7.0% |
| 1904 | −25.8% |
| 1908 | −16.2% |
| 1912 | +45.7% |
| 1916 | +9.6% |
| 1920 | −38.2% |
| 1924 | −29.7% |
| 1928 | −22.6% |
| 1932 | +35.9% |
| 1936 | +33.8% |
| 1940 | +17.7% |
| 1944 | +5.7% |
| 1948 | −3.7% |
| 1952 | −27.1% |
| 1956 | −17.3% |
| 1960 | −15.7% |
| 1964 | +3.1% |
| 1968 | −23.8% |
| 1972 | −20.8% |
| 1976 | −7.7% |
| 1980 | −28.3% |
| 1984 | −27.7% |
| 1988 | −13.6% |
| 1992 | +1.0% |
| 1996 | −10.4% |
| 2000 | −17.0% |
| 2004 | −9.6% |
| 2008 | +2.3% |
| 2012 | −2.0% |
| 2016 | −3.7% |
| 2020 | +1.9% |
| 2024 | −3.1% |
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Registration and the presidential vote track closely here — within 0.0 points.
121,973 registered voters · 2024 · down from 122,965 in 2022
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+504 net domestic migration · 2025
Net −3,706 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $52,342 in average income, against $81,367 for residents who stayed — 36% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean D+4.5 on average — 7.6 points more Democratic-leaning than Butte County, CA itself (R+3.1).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Sacramento County, CA429D+19.7
- Sutter County, CA257R+31.4
- Tehama County, CA201R+41.8
- Glenn County, CA188R+34.9
- Los Angeles County, CA176D+32.9
- Shasta County, CA172R+36.5
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Sacramento County, CA345
- Glenn County, CA180
- Tehama County, CA173
- Shasta County, CA159
- Sutter County, CA150
- Yuba County, CA135
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −301 |
| 2012 | +629 |
| 2013 | +555 |
| 2014 | +1,235 |
| 2015 | +733 |
| 2016 | +1,316 |
| 2017 | +2,335 |
| 2018 | +1,684 |
| 2019 | −11,249 |
| 2021 | −3,265 |
| 2022 | +1,214 |
| 2023 | +38 |
| 2024 | +866 |
| 2025 | +504 |
Butte County's 2018 Camp Fire destroyed the town of Paradise and displaced tens of thousands of residents, measurably shifting its population and voter composition in the cycles that followed. It has trended toward single-digit Republican margins in recent presidential contests.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 45.7 points in 1912 and a Republican high of 38.2 points in 1920. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 5.1 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 3.1 points.
A population of 207,929, a 65% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $67,928 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Washoe County and Arapahoe County.
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Butte County, California. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/06007/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.