Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
The precinct map shows the 2024 presidential vote; the timeline scrubs the city’s overall result across 1992–2024, on current city boundaries.
President results by year
Vote totals, margins, and source status
HarrisDemocratic34.1%542TrumpRepublican63.7%1,013OtherAll other candidates2.3%36
R+29.6
Lead
471
Total
1,591
vs nation
R+28.1
BidenDemocratic35.9%603TrumpRepublican62.9%1,058OtherAll other candidates1.2%21
R+27.1
Lead
455
Total
1,682
vs nation
R+31.5
ClintonDemocratic29.7%399TrumpRepublican65.7%882OtherAll other candidates4.6%62
R+36.0
Lead
483
Total
1,343
vs nation
R+38.1
ObamaDemocratic33.6%461RomneyRepublican62.2%854OtherAll other candidates4.2%58
R+28.6
Lead
393
Total
1,373
vs nation
R+32.5
ObamaDemocratic35.6%531McCainRepublican64.3%960OtherAll other candidates0.1%2
R+28.7
Lead
429
Total
1,493
vs nation
R+36.0
KerryDemocratic30.1%462BushRepublican69.4%1,065OtherAll other candidates0.5%8
R+39.3
Lead
603
Total
1,535
vs nation
R+36.8
ClintonDemocratic30.5%375DoleRepublican55.2%679OtherAll other candidates14.2%175
R+24.7
Lead
304
Total
1,229
vs nation
R+33.3
ClintonDemocratic29.3%386BushRepublican43.2%570OtherAll other candidates27.5%362
R+14.0
Lead
184
Total
1,318
vs nation
R+19.5
Key facts
2024 presidential margin
R+29.6MIT Election Lab
Population
2,8252024 5-year
Population density
1,413 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
Land area
2 sq miTIGER/Line
Median household income
$54,6312024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic)
73.5%2024 5-year
Black
5.9%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino
10.9%2024 5-year
Peak Republican margin
R+39.3 in 2004MIT Election Lab
Participation
Turnout and midterm durability
Participation measured against the same-year citizen voting-age population. Audited cycles count total general-election participants — ballots or participating voters, not presidential candidate votes. Cycles before 2016 predate that series and are derived from the certified presidential returns instead; they are marked everywhere they appear and are excluded from the figures below.
2012–20246 cycles · 5 audited
2024 turnout
64.1%1,635 participants ÷ 2,550 CVAP
2020→2022 drop-off
+23.5 ptsPresidential-dependent
Drop-off vs state
-2.5 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
Mechanical 2026
40.7%–50.1%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
Participation by cycle
Presidential Midterm Derived, pre-2016
0%20%40%60%80%
56.7%
43.7%
201220162018202020222024
Select a presidential cycle to show it on the map and results ledger above.
Cycle
Participants
CVAP
Turnout
Series
Quality
1,635
2,550 ± 397
64.1%
Audited
E/D
2022Mid
1,202
2,753 ± 361
43.7%
Audited
E/D
1,713
2,552 ± 381
67.1%
Audited
E/D
2018Mid
1,293
2,280 ± 291
56.7%
Audited
E/D
1,386
2,261 ± 267
61.3%
Audited
E/D
1,373
2,102
65.3%
Derived
—
Sources and methods
Audited cycles (2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024) count total general-election participants against the same-year CVAP special tabulation, each cell carrying its own numerator and denominator quality grade. Derived cycles (2012) come from the certified presidential returns on this page over the ACS 5-year CVAP series, so they measure presidential votes cast rather than ballots — a floor on participation. Where a derived cycle predates the ACS its denominator is extrapolated rather than read, and says so on its own line below. They are shown for the longer arc and are excluded from the drop-off, excess-drop-off, and 2026 scenario figures above.
2024: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 323/229.
2022: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 322/184.
2020: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 321/4.
2018: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 320/139.
2016: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 319/133.
2012 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
presidential history
Party record book
Kelly Ridge, CA · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1992–2024 · 8 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
35.9%
603 votes · R+27.1
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2008 · 35.6%
Republican
George W. Bush2004
69.4%
1,065 votes · R+39.3
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2016 · 65.7%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
603votes
35.9% of the vote · R+27.1
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 542 votes
Republican
George W. Bush2004
1,065votes
69.4% of the vote · R+39.3
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 1,058 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Bill Clinton1992
−19.5pts D vs U.S.
Place R+14.0 · U.S. D+5.6
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · −28.1 pts
Republican
Donald Trump2016
+38.1pts R vs U.S.
Place R+36.0 · U.S. D+2.1
Runner-up · George W. Bush, 2004 · +36.8 pts
U.S. House elections · 2 House
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Kelly Ridge · which candidate this place backed in each party’s presidential nominating contest, cycle by cycle. A primary is a contest inside one party, so it has no Democratic–Republican margin and is not part of the general-election record above.
Akashic reports votes cast, not delegates awarded. The two can disagree: Clinton led the 2008 national primary popular vote by less than half a point and did not win the nomination.
Primary returns are published at county grain. The figures below are Butte County, California, the county containing Kelly Ridge — Kelly Ridge’s own primary vote sits inside those totals and is not separately reported.
Presidential nominating contests in Kelly Ridge, by party and cycle.
○no contest record — Akashic holds no result for that party and cycle here. It is not a claim that no contest was held. Telling apart a contest that was cancelled, one that went uncontested, and one simply not yet ingested needs a nominating-contest calendar, which is a separate ingest from results and does not exist yet.
Republican presidential primaries are not yet ingested — the Republican series runs from 1856 and is in scope. The row is kept so its absence is visible: a Democratic-only panel would otherwise read as though no one else held a contest.
Akashic carries 10 states for 2012 and 3 states for 2024. Cycles in which an incumbent president seeks renomination are thin by nature — few states run a contested primary — so a sparse column is politics, not a hole in the record.
County returns carry a leader and a lead over the runner-up, and nothing more. The full candidate field with vote shares is published at state grain — follow a cycle above to the state contest for it.
Kelly Ridge sits in the Pacific Coast. In 2024 it voted Republican.
Across the recorded series it reached a Republican high of 39.3 points in 2004. Between 2020 and 2024 the city moved 2.6 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 29.6 points.
A population of 2,825, a 74% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $54,631 describe the city.
In 2024, Kelly Ridge, California voted Republican by 29.6 points (R+29.6), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 1,591 votes cast, 542 went Democratic and 1,013 went Republican.
How many people live in Kelly Ridge, California?
Kelly Ridge, California has a population of 2,825 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Kelly Ridge, California?
Median household income in Kelly Ridge, California is $54,631 — below the national median of $80,734. The California state median is $99,122.
What is the political history of Kelly Ridge, California?
Akashic tracks 8 presidential elections in Kelly Ridge, California from 1992 to 2024. Of those, 0 went Democratic and 8 went Republican.
