† Citizen voting-age population estimated for prior cycles; 2004 predates the ACS and is extrapolated. Source: ACS 5-year, table B05003.
——
D+60R+60
20042024
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
People and households
Who lives here
Exact values for this place, its state, and the United States.
Race · ethnicity · ancestry
Communities and origins
GroupLincolniaVirginiaUnited States
English8.3%12.0%9.5%
German8.2%10.1%12.5%
Irish7.7%9.1%9.4%
Italian3.6%3.9%4.8%
American2.7%8.4%5.3%
Polish1.9%1.6%2.2%
Scottish1.5%1.9%1.3%
French1.3%1.3%1.6%
African American†13.5%15.6%9.9%
Ethiopian4.0%0.5%—
African1.5%0.9%0.5%
Ghanaian1.0%0.2%—
Nigerian0.5%0.2%0.2%
Somali0.5%——
Sudanese0.5%——
Jamaican0.5%0.3%0.4%
Salvadoran4.9%2.1%0.7%
Mexican2.6%2.4%11.3%
Bolivian2.2%0.4%—
Guatemalan2.1%0.7%0.5%
Honduran2.0%0.7%0.3%
Peruvian1.8%0.5%—
Puerto Rican1.6%1.4%1.8%
Colombian0.8%0.3%0.4%
Asian Indian3.0%1.8%1.4%
Korean2.4%0.8%0.4%
Chinese1.8%0.8%1.3%
Vietnamese1.8%0.7%0.6%
Filipino0.9%0.9%0.9%
Pakistani0.8%0.5%—
Bangladeshi0.3%——
Nepalese0.3%——
Hispanic or Latino counts residents of any race; the race groups count only their non-Hispanic residents, so the groups are mutually exclusive and sum to 100%. Expand a row to see ancestries reported within that group.
Age and life stage
Measure
Lincolnia
Virginia
United States
Median age
38.1
39.3
39.1
Age 18–24
5.7%
9.2%
9.2%
Age 65 and older
13.0%
16.7%
17.2%
Household economy
Measure
Lincolnia
Virginia
United States
Median household income
$121,639
$93,170
$84,427
Poverty rate
7.7%
10.0%
12.5%
Bachelor's degree or higher (25+)
55.5%
42.3%
35.6%
Languages at home
Measure
Lincolnia
Virginia
United States
Speaks a non-English language at home
45.6%
17.5%
22.3%
Spanish
19.8%
7.9%
13.6%
Other Indo-European
8.1%
2.6%
2.0%
Arabic
2.2%
0.8%
0.4%
Other languages
8.2%
1.1%
0.8%
Religious landscape
Measure
Lincolnia
Virginia
United States
Catholic
—
10.2%
18.6%
Evangelical Protestant
—
19.9%
16.5%
Unclaimed / not counted
—
54.3%
51.5%
American Community Survey 2024 5-year (CVAP, income, age, poverty, education, language, race, ancestry) · presidential returns from MIT Election Lab through 2024 · 2020 U.S. Religion Census (ASARB) — congregational adherents; unclaimed is the residual not counted by congregations.
Lincolnia, Virginia
presidential history
Presidential margin, 2004–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
Presidential margin over time
Year
Margin (D minus R)
2004
+23.4%
2008
+36.2%
2012
+40.7%
2016
+51.9%
2020
+51.3%
2024
+37.4%
DemocraticRepublican
6 presidential elections
Third column names the leading third-party or independent finisher. Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024). Swing · margin change from the prior cycle. vs U.S. · margin relative to the national result that year. Third-party votes in 2012 are allocated from certified county totals by this place's share of each county's two-party vote — that cycle's precinct source records two-party splits. † 2004, 2020 sub-county results are estimated: the source's block-level detail for these cycles was unreliable — either county/municipality-level consolidated reporting (COVID-era) or a precinct-to-block allocation that misplaced votes — so the figures are allocated from the constituent county totals in proportion to the place and scaled to certified totals.
Year
Won
Democratic
Republican
Other
Margin
Swing
vs U.S.
Total
D
66.4%Harris6,440
29.0%Trump2,809
4.6%
D+37.4
R+13.8
D+38.9
9,697
D
74.6%Biden7,671
23.4%Trump2,400
2.0%
D+51.3
R+0.6
D+46.8
10,276
D
73.2%Clinton7,057
21.2%Trump2,049
5.6%
D+51.9
D+11.2
D+49.8
9,645
D
69.7%Obama6,397
29.0%Romney2,659
1.4%
D+40.7
D+4.5
D+36.9
9,182
D
67.6%Obama5,834
31.4%McCain2,711
1.0%
D+36.2
D+12.8
D+28.9
8,627
D
61.2%Kerry4,623
37.8%Bush2,853
1.1%
D+23.4
—
D+25.9
7,556
Lincolnia sits inside Fairfax County's inner suburbs, where rapid demographic diversification—driven largely by Latino and Asian American growth—has accelerated a long-running shift in voter composition that now mirrors Northern Virginia's broader realignment.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 51.9 points in 2016. Between 2020 and 2024 the city moved 13.8 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 37.4 points.
A population of 20,320, a 34% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $121,639 describe the city. The city's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Groveton and Lorton.
Akashic
Political twins — cities
The cities whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
In 2024, Lincolnia, Virginia voted Democratic by 37.4 points (D+37.4), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 9,697 votes cast, 6,440 went Democratic and 2,809 went Republican.
How many people live in Lincolnia, Virginia?
Lincolnia, Virginia has a population of 20,320 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Lincolnia, Virginia?
Median household income in Lincolnia, Virginia is $121,639 — above the national median of $80,734. The Virginia state median is $93,170.
What is the political history of Lincolnia, Virginia?
Akashic tracks 6 presidential elections in Lincolnia, Virginia from 2004 to 2024. Of those, 6 went Democratic and 0 went Republican.
