- Lead
- 15,590
- Total
- 40,101
- vs nation
- D+40.3
Virginia 16th State House District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 18,892
- Total
- 40,490
- vs nation
- D+42.2
- Lead
- 15,121
- Total
- 36,051
- vs nation
- D+39.9
- Lead
- 9,499
- Total
- 34,236
- vs nation
- D+23.9
- Lead
- 9,496
- Total
- 33,480
- vs nation
- D+21.1
- Lead
- 4,430
- Total
- 29,533
- vs nation
- D+17.5
- Lead
- 1,625
- Total
- 26,311
- vs nation
- D+5.7
- Lead
- 1,375
- Total
- 23,295
- vs nation
- R+2.6
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+38.9MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 86,5892024 5-year
- Population density
- 4,009 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 21.6 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $124,3362024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 44.4%2024 5-year
- Black
- 17.2%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 26.5%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+72.3 in 1912MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+34.4 in 1928MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State House District 3, VA · twin score 95.3
presidential history
Party record book
Virginia 16th State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
2004–2024 · 6 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
72.3%
29,270 votes · D+46.7 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 68.2%
Republican
George W. Bush2004
42.1%
12,427 votes · D+15.0 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Mitt Romney, 2012 · 35.5%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
29,270votes
72.3% of the vote · D+46.7 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 27,354 votes
Republican
George W. Bush2004
12,427votes
42.1% of the vote · D+15.0 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Mitt Romney, 2012 · 12,139 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
+42.2pts D vs U.S.
Place D+46.7 · U.S. D+4.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · +40.3 pts
Republican
George W. Bush2004
−17.5pts R vs U.S.
Place D+15.0 · U.S. R+2.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · John McCain, 2008 · −21.1 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
With a 2024 presidential margin of D+38.9, this district ranks among the most reliably Democratic in the state, reflecting a dense, urban electorate that has shifted further left over successive election cycles.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 72.3 points in 1912 and a Republican high of 34.4 points in 1928. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 7.8 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 38.9 points.
A population of 86,589, a 44% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $124,336 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State House District 3 and State Legislative District 18.
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Virginia 16th State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/51016/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.