- Lead
- 15,460
- Total
- 51,598
- vs nation
- D+31.4
Virginia 15th State House District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 18,370
- Total
- 53,336
- vs nation
- D+30.0
- Lead
- 12,868
- Total
- 49,542
- vs nation
- D+23.9
- Lead
- 4,426
- Total
- 48,540
- vs nation
- D+5.3
- Lead
- 4,600
- Total
- 47,293
- vs nation
- D+2.5
- Lead
- 1,916
- Total
- 42,999
- vs nation
- R+2.0
- Lead
- 4,937
- Total
- 38,914
- vs nation
- R+13.2
- Lead
- 4,371
- Total
- 34,339
- vs nation
- R+21.2
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+30.0MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 88,3582024 5-year
- Population density
- 2,614 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 33.8 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $188,2522024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 57.2%2024 5-year
- Black
- 6.2%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 12.6%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+51.7 in 1912MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+48.6 in 1928MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State Legislative Subdistrict 9A, MD · twin score 94.4
presidential history
Party record book
Virginia 15th State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
2004–2024 · 6 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
66.2%
35,293 votes · D+34.4 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 63.8%
Republican
George W. Bush2004
51.8%
22,263 votes · R+4.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Mitt Romney, 2012 · 44.7%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
35,293votes
66.2% of the vote · D+34.4 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 32,911 votes
Republican
George W. Bush2004
22,263votes
51.8% of the vote · R+4.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Mitt Romney, 2012 · 21,709 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Kamala Harris2024
+31.4pts D vs U.S.
Place D+30.0 · U.S. R+1.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · +30.0 pts
Republican
George W. Bush2004
+2.0pts R vs U.S.
Place R+4.5 · U.S. R+2.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · John McCain, 2008 · −2.5 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Virginia 15th State House District sits in the Mid-Atlantic and Appalachia. In 2024 it voted Democratic.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 51.7 points in 1912 and a Republican high of 48.6 points in 1928. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 4.5 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 30.0 points.
A population of 88,358, a 57% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $188,252 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State Legislative Subdistrict 9A and State House District 10.
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Virginia 15th State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/51015/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.