Virginia 15th State House District, Virginia: Realigner district. In 2024, voted D+35%. Democratic peak: D+61 in 1912.
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+35MIT Election Lab
- Political archetype
- RealignerAkashic typology
- Population
- 100,2132024 5-year
- Median household income
- $153,6322024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 49.1%2024 5-year
- Black
- 9.6%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 17.6%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+61 in 1912MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+34 in 1928MIT Election Lab
Constituent county margins for State House District 15, VAOne cell per constituent county, colored by 2024 presidential margin from deep red (Republican) through neutral to deep blue (Democratic), ordered bluest first.
R+60D+60
One cell per constituent county. Ordered by 2024 D-vs-R margin (bluest first). Hover for county-level numbers.
38 presidential elections
| Year | Won | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D | 33,739 | 15,881 | 51,461 | ||
| D | 36,664 | 14,703 | 52,456 | ||
| D | 31,005 | 13,769 | 48,122 | ||
| D | 27,525 | 18,053 | 46,210 | ||
| D | 27,096 | 17,548 | 45,072 | ||
| D | 21,449 | 18,508 | 40,282 | ||
| R | 17,156 | 17,652 | 36,126 | ||
| R | 14,855 | 15,369 | 31,890 | ||
| R | 13,986 | 14,885 | 33,633 | ||
| R | 10,976 | 17,518 | 28,670 | ||
| R | 9,368 | 15,995 | 25,435 | ||
| R | 6,438 | 12,017 | 20,931 | ||
| R | 8,037 | 9,642 | 17,985 | ||
| R | 4,791 | 9,800 | 14,790 | ||
| R | 3,912 | 5,019 | 10,246 | ||
| D | 4,254 | 2,692 | 6,953 | ||
| R | 2,275 | 2,444 | 4,732 | ||
| R | 1,365 | 1,812 | 3,253 | ||
| R | 727 | 1,136 | 1,866 | ||
| R | 325 | 430 | 828 | ||
| R | 313 | 353 | 669 | ||
| D | 285 | 207 | 494 | ||
| D | 254 | 138 | 395 | ||
| D | 237 | 119 | 363 | ||
| R | 107 | 219 | 326 | ||
| D | 138 | 67 | 223 | ||
| D | 139 | 86 | 228 | ||
| D | 103 | 41 | 145 | ||
| D | 87 | 16 | 117 | ||
| D | 100 | 35 | 136 | ||
| D | 68 | 37 | 106 | ||
| D | 186 | 132 | 319 | ||
| D | 184 | 164 | 351 | ||
| D | 189 | 134 | 326 | ||
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Demographics
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
English
10.2%
German
10.1%
Irish
9.5%
Italian
4.5%
American
3.3%
Polish
2.3%
Scottish
1.9%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 39.1 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
85+
75–84
65–74
55–64
45–54
35–44
25–34
18–24
5–17
<5
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Median household income
2024 inflation-adjusted dollars
$153,632
State House District 15 ranks near the middle of US counties.
State House District 15$153,632
Virginia$93,170
United States$80,734
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
5.9%
Child poverty is below the national average.
Children under 187.2%
Working age (18–64)5.5%
Seniors (65+)6.9%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
61.0%
speak English only
Spanish13.6%
Asian & Pacific Islander11.7%
Other Indo-European8.8%
Other languages4.9%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 52.1% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.
With a 2024 presidential margin of R+47.5, this district ranks among the most politically lopsided in Virginia, suggesting a rural or exurban electorate where competitive general elections are rare.
The unraveling was not abrupt. The Democratic margin in Virginia 15th State House District peaked at sixty-one points in 1912; it narrowed steadily over the late twentieth century. The 2004 election delivered the district to the Republican party for the first time in many years, by a margin of seven points. By 2024, the margin had settled into deep Republican territory.
The economic and demographic context is severe. The median household income of $153,632 is among the lowest at this geographic scale; 6% of residents live below the federal poverty line.
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
State House District 15, Virginia. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/51015/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
Frequently asked questions
How did State House District 15, Virginia vote in 2024?
In 2024, State House District 15, Virginia voted Democratic by 34.7 points (D+35), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 51,461 votes cast, 33,739 went Democratic and 15,881 went Republican.
What is State House District 15, Virginia's political archetype?
Akashic classifies State House District 15, Virginia as a "Realigner" district based on its long-arc presidential voting pattern. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the district has voted Democratic 19 times, Republican 15 times, and other 0 times.
When did State House District 15, Virginia last vote Republican?
The most recent presidential election in which State House District 15, Virginia voted Republican was 2000.
How many people live in State House District 15, Virginia?
State House District 15, Virginia has a population of 100,213 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in State House District 15, Virginia?
Median household income in State House District 15, Virginia is $153,632 — above the national median of $80,734. The Virginia state median is $93,170.
What is the political history of State House District 15, Virginia?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in State House District 15, Virginia from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 19 went Democratic and 15 went Republican. The district's archetype — "Realigner" — captures the overall trajectory of that voting record.