Akashic
1892–2024
Akashic
Virginia 15th State House District
presidential margin
2008D+9.92012D+9.02016D+26.02020D+36.92024D+29.7
full record · 2008 → 2024
D+29.7
2024
median income$188,252U.S. $80,734 · VA $93,170
median age41.4U.S. 39.1 · VA 39.3
poverty rate3.3%U.S. 12.5% · VA 10.0%
bachelor’s+ (25+)65.0%U.S. 35.6% · VA 42.3%
non-english39.0%U.S. 22.3% · VA 17.5%
race · ethnicity · ancestry
English12.9%
German12.8%
Irish12.1%
Asian Indian4.1%
Korean3.2%
Chinese2.5%
Salvadoran2.7%
Mexican1.4%
Bolivian1.2%
African American†3.7%
Ethiopian1.1%
African0.4%
religion

Religious adherence is published only at the county level (U.S. Religion Census). See Fairfax County.

American Community Survey 2024 5-year (income, age, poverty, education, language, race, ancestry) · presidential returns from MIT Election Lab through 2024.

Virginia 15th State House District

Akashic
Virginia 15th State House DistrictHarrisD+29.7
2024
2024 presidential margin for Virginia 15th State House DistrictThe boundary of Virginia 15th State House District, filled by its 2024 presidential margin (D+29.7), over faint outlines of the counties it is drawn from.Virginia 15th State House District · D+29.7
How it voted
Share of the 2024 vote
Kamala Harris ✓Democratic63.3%32,911
Donald TrumpRepublican33.6%17,452
Jill SteinGreen3.2%1,648
D+60
R+60
District boundary, filled by its own 2024 D-vs-R margin — precinct detail where available, over the 2 counties it's drawn from (shown faint).
The precinct map shows the 2024 presidential vote; the timeline scrubs the district’s overall result across 1892–2024, on its current boundaries.
County-level results (2 counties) — table
2024 presidential result by county for Virginia 15th State House District — winner and D-vs-R margin.
CountyWinnerMargin
Fairfax city, VADemocraticD+33.1
Fairfax County, VADemocraticD+34.7
5 presidential elections
Third column names the leading third-party or independent finisher. Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024).
YearWonDemocraticRepublicanOtherMarginTotal
D
63.3%Harris32,911
33.6%Trump17,452
3.2%Stein1,648
+29.7%
52,011
D
67.4%Biden40,213
30.5%Trump18,212
2.1%Jorgensen1,252
+36.9%
59,677
D
59.4%Clinton29,431
33.4%Trump16,563
7.2%Johnson3,548
+26.0%
49,542
D
54.5%Obama26,073
45.5%Romney21,746
0.0%
+9.0%
47,819
D
54.6%Obama25,938
44.7%McCain21,214
0.8%Nader358
+9.9%
47,510
presidential history
Presidential margin, 2008–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
Presidential margin over timeDemocratic-minus-Republican presidential margin from 2008 to 2024. Most recent: +29.7% in 2024.+29.7%DR20082024
Presidential margin over time
YearMargin (D minus R)
2008+9.9%
2012+9.0%
2016+26.0%
2020+36.9%
2024+29.7%
DemocraticRepublican
current representation
Current officeholders
DLaura Jane CohenState House · 15

State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.

Source · OpenStates current legislator CSV.

With a 2024 presidential margin of R+47.5, this district ranks among the most politically lopsided in Virginia, suggesting a rural or exurban electorate where competitive general elections are rare.

Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 36.9 points in 2020. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 7.1 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 29.7 points.

A population of 88,358, a 59% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $188,252 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State House District 10 and State House District 7.

Political twins — state-house districts

The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.

State House District 10
Virginia
95.5twin score
median incomecollege share12-yr trend≠ % Asian
State House District 7
Virginia
94.4twin score
median income12-yr trendcollege share≠ elasticity
State Legislative Subdistrict 9A
Maryland
93.7twin score
12-yr trendmedian incomecollege share≠ % Asian

Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.

Compare two places, side by side

Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →

Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Virginia 15th State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/51015/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
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Places within Virginia 15th State House District

counties it covers1
Fairfax County

Frequently asked questions

How did Virginia 15th State House District vote in 2024?
In 2024, Virginia 15th State House District voted Democratic by 29.7 points (D+29.7), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 52,011 votes cast, 32,911 went Democratic and 17,452 went Republican.
How many people live in Virginia 15th State House District?
Virginia 15th State House District has a population of 88,358 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Virginia 15th State House District?
Median household income in Virginia 15th State House District is $188,252 — above the national median of $80,734. The Virginia state median is $93,170.
What is the political history of Virginia 15th State House District?
Akashic tracks 5 presidential elections in Virginia 15th State House District from 2008 to 2024. Of those, 5 went Democratic and 0 went Republican.