- Lead
- 11,213
- Total
- 47,173
- vs nation
- D+25.2
Virginia 10th State House District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 14,601
- Total
- 48,315
- vs nation
- D+25.8
- Lead
- 10,523
- Total
- 44,910
- vs nation
- D+21.3
- Lead
- 2,744
- Total
- 44,162
- vs nation
- D+2.4
- Lead
- 2,956
- Total
- 43,048
- vs nation
- R+0.4
- Lead
- 2,878
- Total
- 39,264
- vs nation
- R+4.9
- Lead
- 5,517
- Total
- 35,663
- vs nation
- R+16.0
- Lead
- 4,888
- Total
- 31,482
- vs nation
- R+24.0
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+23.8MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 85,7282024 5-year
- Population density
- 1,809 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 47.4 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $167,0642024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 50.2%2024 5-year
- Black
- 5.7%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 12.0%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+52.9 in 1912MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+49.6 in 1928MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State House District 9, VA · twin score 98.6
presidential history
Party record book
Virginia 10th State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
2004–2024 · 6 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
64.1%
30,956 votes · D+30.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 60.6%
Republican
George W. Bush2004
53.3%
20,914 votes · R+7.3 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Mitt Romney, 2012 · 46.2%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
30,956votes
64.1% of the vote · D+30.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 28,589 votes
Republican
George W. Bush2004
20,914votes
53.3% of the vote · R+7.3 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Mitt Romney, 2012 · 20,411 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
+25.8pts D vs U.S.
Place D+30.2 · U.S. D+4.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · +25.2 pts
Republican
George W. Bush2004
+4.9pts R vs U.S.
Place R+7.3 · U.S. R+2.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · John McCain, 2008 · +0.4 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
With a 2024 presidential margin of D+23.8, this Northern Virginia–area district tilts heavily toward Democratic candidates at the top of the ticket, making it a reliable anchor in statewide coalition math.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 52.9 points in 1912 and a Republican high of 49.6 points in 1928. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 6.5 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 23.8 points.
A population of 85,728, a 50% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $167,064 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State House District 9 and State House District 8.
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Virginia 10th State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/51010/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.