- Lead
- 47,257
- Total
- 120,492
- vs nation
- D+40.7
Virginia 38th State Senate District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 52,401
- Total
- 119,462
- vs nation
- D+39.4
- Lead
- 37,546
- Total
- 105,512
- vs nation
- D+33.5
- Lead
- 20,553
- Total
- 101,067
- vs nation
- D+16.5
- Lead
- 20,739
- Total
- 98,536
- vs nation
- D+13.8
- Lead
- 6,292
- Total
- 88,044
- vs nation
- D+9.6
- Lead
- 1,202
- Total
- 79,126
- vs nation
- R+2.0
- Lead
- 1,240
- Total
- 69,798
- vs nation
- R+10.3
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+39.2MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 215,6382024 5-year
- Population density
- 2,437 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 88.5 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $178,9622024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 54.1%2024 5-year
- Black
- 6.7%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 13.4%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+58.5 in 1912MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+33.8 in 1972MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Legislative (Senate) District 45, WA · twin score 96.2
presidential history
Party record book
Virginia 38th State Senate District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
2004–2024 · 6 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
70.9%
84,700 votes · D+43.9 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 68.3%
Republican
George W. Bush2004
46.0%
40,523 votes · D+7.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Mitt Romney, 2012 · 39.1%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
84,700votes
70.9% of the vote · D+43.9 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 82,237 votes
Republican
George W. Bush2004
40,523votes
46.0% of the vote · D+7.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Mitt Romney, 2012 · 39,526 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Kamala Harris2024
+40.7pts D vs U.S.
Place D+39.2 · U.S. R+1.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · +39.4 pts
Republican
George W. Bush2004
−9.6pts R vs U.S.
Place D+7.1 · U.S. R+2.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · John McCain, 2008 · −13.8 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Virginia 38th State Senate District sits in the Mid-Atlantic and Appalachia. In 2024 it voted Democratic.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 58.5 points in 1912 and a Republican high of 33.8 points in 1972. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 4.6 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 39.2 points.
A population of 215,638, a 54% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $178,962 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Legislative (Senate) District 45 and State Senate District 37.
The state-senate districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Virginia 38th State Senate District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-upper/51038/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.