Participation measured against the same-year citizen voting-age population. Audited cycles count total general-election participants — ballots or participating voters, not presidential candidate votes.
2020–20243 cycles · 3 audited
2024 turnout
85.1%4,700 participants ÷ 5,521 CVAP
2020→2022 drop-off
+39.0 ptsPresidential-dependent
Drop-off vs state
+15.3 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
Mechanical 2026
46.1%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
Participation by cycle
Presidential Midterm
0%20%40%60%80%100%
60.9%
202020222024
Select a presidential cycle to show it on the map and results ledger above.
Cycle
Participants
CVAP
Turnout
Series
Quality
4,700
5,521 ± 506
85.1%
Audited
E/A
2022Mid
3,182
5,225 ± 503
60.9%
Audited
E/A
4,646
4,649 ± 470
99.9%
Audited
E/D
Sources and methods
2024: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 323/229.
2022: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 322/184.
2020: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 321/4.
presidential history
Party record book
Bull Run, VA · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
2004–2024 · 6 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
54.3%
2,502 votes · D+10.7
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 52.2%
Republican
George W. Bush2004
63.1%
2,466 votes · R+26.9
Runner-up · Mitt Romney, 2012 · 59.2%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
2,502votes
54.3% of the vote · D+10.7
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 2,437 votes
Republican
George W. Bush2004
2,466votes
63.1% of the vote · R+26.9
Runner-up · Mitt Romney, 2012 · 2,363 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Kamala Harris2024
+9.0pts D vs U.S.
Place D+7.6 · U.S. R+1.5
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · +6.3 pts
Republican
George W. Bush2004
+24.4pts R vs U.S.
Place R+26.9 · U.S. R+2.5
Runner-up · Mitt Romney, 2012 · +23.7 pts
U.S. House elections · 1 House
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Bull Run · which candidate this place backed in each party’s presidential nominating contest, cycle by cycle. A primary is a contest inside one party, so it has no Democratic–Republican margin and is not part of the general-election record above.
Akashic reports votes cast, not delegates awarded. The two can disagree: Clinton led the 2008 national primary popular vote by less than half a point and did not win the nomination.
Primary returns are published at county grain. The figures below are Fairfax County, Virginia, the county containing Bull Run — Bull Run’s own primary vote sits inside those totals and is not separately reported.
Presidential nominating contests in Bull Run, by party and cycle.
○no contest record — Akashic holds no result for that party and cycle here. It is not a claim that no contest was held. Telling apart a contest that was cancelled, one that went uncontested, and one simply not yet ingested needs a nominating-contest calendar, which is a separate ingest from results and does not exist yet.
Republican presidential primaries are not yet ingested — the Republican series runs from 1856 and is in scope. The row is kept so its absence is visible: a Democratic-only panel would otherwise read as though no one else held a contest.
Akashic carries 10 states for 2012 and 3 states for 2024. Cycles in which an incumbent president seeks renomination are thin by nature — few states run a contested primary — so a sparse column is politics, not a hole in the record.
County returns carry a leader and a lead over the runner-up, and nothing more. The full candidate field with vote shares is published at state grain — follow a cycle above to the state contest for it.
Bull Run sits in the Mid-Atlantic and Appalachia. In 2024 it voted Democratic.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 10.7 points in 2020 and a Republican high of 26.9 points in 2004. Between 2020 and 2024 the city moved 3.2 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 7.6 points.
A population of 7,823, a 57% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $241,933 describe the city. The city's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Crosspointe and Fairfax Station.
Akashic
Political twins — cities
The cities whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
In 2024, Bull Run, Virginia voted Democratic by 7.6 points (D+7.6), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 4,672 votes cast, 2,437 went Democratic and 2,084 went Republican.
When did Bull Run, Virginia last vote Republican?
The most recent presidential election in which Bull Run, Virginia voted Republican was 2012.
How many people live in Bull Run, Virginia?
Bull Run, Virginia has a population of 7,823 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Bull Run, Virginia?
Median household income in Bull Run, Virginia is $241,933 — above the national median of $80,734. The Virginia state median is $93,170.
What is the political history of Bull Run, Virginia?
Akashic tracks 6 presidential elections in Bull Run, Virginia from 2004 to 2024. Of those, 3 went Democratic and 3 went Republican.
