HarrisDemocratic28.0%6,967TrumpRepublican70.9%17,675KennedyNonpartisan0.4%95
R+43.0- Lead
- 10,708
- Total
- 24,912
- vs nation
- R+41.5
- Turnout
- 78.9%
Akashiccounty
Oconto County, WI
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
President results by year
2024 turnout 78.9% of 31,656 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic28.9%6,715TrumpRepublican69.9%16,226JorgensenLibertarian0.9%210
R+41.0- Lead
- 9,511
- Total
- 23,215
- vs nation
- R+45.4
- Turnout
- 77.2%
ClintonDemocratic29.4%5,940TrumpRepublican66.0%13,345JohnsonLibertarian2.9%590
R+36.6- Lead
- 7,405
- Total
- 20,206
- vs nation
- R+38.7
- Turnout
- 69.1%
ObamaDemocratic44.6%8,865RomneyRepublican54.1%10,741GrayIndependent0.7%138
R+9.4- Lead
- 1,876
- Total
- 19,859
- vs nation
- R+13.3
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic52.3%9,927McCainRepublican46.2%8,755OtherAll other candidates1.5%286
D+6.2- Lead
- 1,172
- Total
- 18,968
- vs nation
- R+1.1
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic43.1%8,534BushRepublican55.8%11,043OtherAll other candidates1.1%217
R+12.7- Lead
- 2,509
- Total
- 19,794
- vs nation
- R+10.2
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic43.7%7,260BushRepublican52.5%8,706NaderGreen2.6%437
R+8.7- Lead
- 1,446
- Total
- 16,596
- vs nation
- R+9.2
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic48.4%6,723DoleRepublican38.8%5,389PerotReform11.9%1,655
D+9.6- Lead
- 1,334
- Total
- 13,885
- vs nation
- D+1.1
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+43.0MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 39,5892024 5-year
- Median household income
- $75,0492024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 93.3%2024 5-year
- Black
- 0.1%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 2.3%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+37.2 in 1932MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+61.2 in 1920MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Shawano County, WI · twin score 94.1
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 78.9%24,982 participants ÷ 31,656 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +14.1 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- -1.5 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 64.9%–67.1%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 20,358 | 29,442 | 69.1% | B/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 17,668 | 29,670 | 59.5% | B/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 23,264 | 30,147 | 77.2% | B/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 19,682 | 31,188 | 63.1% | B/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 24,982 | 31,656 | 78.9% | B/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:aggregated; allocation share 0.0%; series 292/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:aggregated; allocation share 0.0%; series 296/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:aggregated; allocation share 0.0%; series 300/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:aggregated; allocation share 0.0%; series 305/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:aggregated; allocation share 0.0%; series 310/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
28 precincts · 24,911 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -TOWN OF LITTLE SUAMICO WARDS 1-9TOWN OF LITTLE SUAMICO WARDS 1-9 | 968 | 2,748 | 49 | 3,765 | 25.7% | 73.0% | R+47.3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -CITY OF OCONTO WARDS 1-7CITY OF OCONTO WARDS 1-7 | 833 | 1,484 | 18 | 2,335 | 35.7% | 63.6% | R+27.9 |
| Precinct -TOWN OF CHASE WARDS 1-5TOWN OF CHASE WARDS 1-5 | 523 | 1,567 | 28 | 2,118 | 24.7% | 74.0% | R+49.3 |
| Precinct -CITY OF OCONTO FALLS WARDS 1-8CITY OF OCONTO FALLS WARDS 1-8 | 481 | 1,037 | 20 | 1,538 | 31.3% | 67.4% | R+36.2 |
| Precinct -TOWN OF ABRAMS WARDS 1-3TOWN OF ABRAMS WARDS 1-3 | 390 | 989 | 16 | 1,395 | 28.0% | 70.9% | R+42.9 |
| Precinct -TOWN OF BRAZEAU WARDS 1-2TOWN OF BRAZEAU WARDS 1-2 | 253 | 737 | 8 | 998 | 25.4% | 73.8% | R+48.5 |
| Precinct -TOWN OF STILES WARDS 1-2TOWN OF STILES WARDS 1-2 | 268 | 692 | 11 | 971 | 27.6% | 71.3% | R+43.7 |
| Precinct -TOWN OF PENSAUKEE WARDS 1-2TOWN OF PENSAUKEE WARDS 1-2 | 261 | 669 | 12 | 942 | 27.7% | 71.0% | R+43.3 |
| Precinct -TOWN OF OCONTO WARDS 1-2TOWN OF OCONTO WARDS 1-2 | 209 | 644 | 11 | 864 | 24.2% | 74.5% | R+50.3 |
| Precinct -TOWN OF TOWNSEND WARDS 1-2TOWN OF TOWNSEND WARDS 1-2 | 293 | 549 | 9 | 851 | 34.4% | 64.5% | R+30.1 |
| Precinct -TOWN OF OCONTO FALLS WARDS 1-2TOWN OF OCONTO FALLS WARDS 1-2 | 223 | 563 | 11 | 797 | 28.0% | 70.6% | R+42.7 |
| Precinct -TOWN OF MORGAN WARDS 1-2TOWN OF MORGAN WARDS 1-2 | 149 | 519 | 10 | 678 | 22.0% | 76.5% | R+54.6 |
| Precinct -TOWN OF LAKEWOOD WARD 1TOWN OF LAKEWOOD WARD 1 | 230 | 423 | 4 | 657 | 35.0% | 64.4% | R+29.4 |
| Precinct -TOWN OF GILLETT WARDS 1-2TOWN OF GILLETT WARDS 1-2 | 124 | 522 | 6 | 652 | 19.0% | 80.1% | R+61.0 |
| Precinct -CITY OF GILLETT WARDS 1-3CITY OF GILLETT WARDS 1-3 | 202 | 431 | 15 | 648 | 31.2% | 66.5% | R+35.3 |
| Precinct -TOWN OF RIVERVIEW WARDS 1-2TOWN OF RIVERVIEW WARDS 1-2 | 228 | 413 | 2 | 643 | 35.5% | 64.2% | R+28.8 |
| Precinct -TOWN OF LITTLE RIVER WARDS 1-2TOWN OF LITTLE RIVER WARDS 1-2 | 153 | 479 | 5 | 637 | 24.0% | 75.2% | R+51.2 |
| Precinct -TOWN OF MOUNTAIN WARD 1TOWN OF MOUNTAIN WARD 1 | 228 | 398 | 4 | 630 | 36.2% | 63.2% | R+27.0 |
| Precinct -TOWN OF SPRUCE WARD 1TOWN OF SPRUCE WARD 1 | 153 | 394 | 2 | 549 | 27.9% | 71.8% | R+43.9 |
| Precinct -TOWN OF UNDERHILL WARD 1TOWN OF UNDERHILL WARD 1 | 142 | 374 | 6 | 522 | 27.2% | 71.6% | R+44.4 |
| Precinct -TOWN OF LENA WARD 1TOWN OF LENA WARD 1 | 106 | 355 | 8 | 469 | 22.6% | 75.7% | R+53.1 |
| Precinct -TOWN OF BREED WARD 1TOWN OF BREED WARD 1 | 114 | 345 | 2 | 461 | 24.7% | 74.8% | R+50.1 |
| Precinct -TOWN OF MAPLE VALLEY WARD 1TOWN OF MAPLE VALLEY WARD 1 | 94 | 330 | 2 | 426 | 22.1% | 77.5% | R+55.4 |
| Precinct -TOWN OF HOW WARD 1TOWN OF HOW WARD 1 | 73 | 282 | 4 | 359 | 20.3% | 78.6% | R+58.2 |
| Precinct -VILLAGE OF LENA WARD 1VILLAGE OF LENA WARD 1 | 84 | 212 | 0 | 296 | 28.4% | 71.6% | R+43.2 |
| Precinct -VILLAGE OF SURING WARD 1VILLAGE OF SURING WARD 1 | 59 | 185 | 4 | 248 | 23.8% | 74.6% | R+50.8 |
| Precinct -TOWN OF DOTY WARD 1TOWN OF DOTY WARD 1 | 89 | 154 | 2 | 245 | 36.3% | 62.9% | R+26.5 |
| Precinct -TOWN OF BAGLEY WARD 1TOWN OF BAGLEY WARD 1 | 37 | 180 | 0 | 217 | 17.1% | 82.9% | R+65.9 |
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | +7.6% |
| 1896 | −36.6% |
| 1900 | −41.4% |
| 1904 | −50.7% |
| 1908 | −33.6% |
| 1912 | −10.9% |
| 1916 | −14.8% |
| 1920 | −61.2% |
| 1924 | −25.3% |
| 1928 | −4.5% |
| 1932 | +37.2% |
| 1936 | +26.8% |
| 1940 | −8.3% |
| 1944 | −15.3% |
| 1948 | −6.4% |
| 1952 | −39.4% |
| 1956 | −30.4% |
| 1960 | −10.4% |
| 1964 | +18.0% |
| 1968 | −18.4% |
| 1972 | −22.5% |
| 1976 | +2.4% |
| 1980 | −20.6% |
| 1984 | −24.2% |
| 1988 | −3.9% |
| 1992 | +1.1% |
| 1996 | +9.6% |
| 2000 | −8.7% |
| 2004 | −12.7% |
| 2008 | +6.2% |
| 2012 | −9.4% |
| 2016 | −36.6% |
| 2020 | −41.0% |
| 2024 | −43.0% |
DemocraticRepublican
Federal and statewide elections · 3 House · 38 Senate · 3 Senate special · 12 governor
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+300 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net +1,775 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $81,118 in average income, against $76,403 for residents who stayed — 6% higher. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+13.4 on average — 30 points more Democratic-leaning than Oconto County, WI itself (R+43.0).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Brown County, WI398R+7.5
- Marinette County, WI103R+37.9
- Shawano County, WI59R+36.2
- Outagamie County, WI45R+10.2
- Winnebago County, WI24R+4.7
- Milwaukee County, WI23D+38.4
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Brown County, WI354
- Marinette County, WI118
- Shawano County, WI72
- Outagamie County, WI52
- Winnebago County, WI28
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −132 |
| 2012 | −191 |
| 2013 | −80 |
| 2014 | +102 |
| 2015 | −26 |
| 2016 | −10 |
| 2017 | +75 |
| 2018 | +324 |
| 2019 | +117 |
| 2021 | +437 |
| 2022 | +373 |
| 2023 | +148 |
| 2024 | +338 |
| 2025 | +300 |
Oconto County, hugging the western shore of Green Bay, has shifted decisively rightward over the past two decades. Its 2024 presidential margin of R+43 places it among the most lopsided counties in a state routinely decided by fewer than two points statewide.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 37.2 points in 1932 and a Republican high of 61.2 points in 1920. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 2.0 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 43.0 points.
A population of 39,589, a 93% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $75,049 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Shawano County and Waupaca County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Shawano County
Wisconsin
94.1twin score
elasticity2008 margin12-yr trend
Waupaca County
Wisconsin
91.5twin score
elasticity2008–2012 trajectory% White≠ Polish ancestry
Marinette County
Wisconsin
89.9twin score
12-yr trendelasticityPolish ancestry≠ Swedish ancestry
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
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All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Oconto County, Wisconsin. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/55083/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Cities & towns in Oconto County
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Frequently asked questions
How did Oconto County, Wisconsin vote in 2024?
In 2024, Oconto County, Wisconsin voted Republican by 43.0 points (R+43.0), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 24,912 votes cast, 6,967 went Democratic and 17,675 went Republican.
When did Oconto County, Wisconsin last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Oconto County, Wisconsin voted Democratic was 2008.
How many people live in Oconto County, Wisconsin?
Oconto County, Wisconsin has a population of 39,589 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Oconto County, Wisconsin?
Median household income in Oconto County, Wisconsin is $75,049 — below the national median of $80,734. The Wisconsin state median is $77,485.
What is the political history of Oconto County, Wisconsin?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Oconto County, Wisconsin from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 8 went Democratic and 25 went Republican.