- Lead
- 2,186
- Total
- 3,299
- vs nation
- D+67.7
- Turnout
- 58.9%
Jefferson County, MS
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
2024 turnout 58.9% of 5,600 citizens 18+
- Lead
- 2,796
- Total
- 3,908
- vs nation
- D+67.1
- Turnout
- 72.1%
- Lead
- 2,847
- Total
- 3,860
- vs nation
- D+71.7
- Turnout
- 67.0%
- Lead
- 3,483
- Total
- 4,433
- vs nation
- D+74.7
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 3,332
- Total
- 4,478
- vs nation
- D+67.1
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 2,191
- Total
- 3,469
- vs nation
- D+65.6
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 2,186
- Total
- 3,408
- vs nation
- D+63.6
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 2,042
- Total
- 3,119
- vs nation
- D+56.9
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+66.3MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 7,0682024 5-year
- Median household income
- $38,3052024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 13.1%2024 5-year
- Black
- 82.9%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 2.0%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+98.5 in 1916MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+89.6 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Greene County, AL · twin score 99.4
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 58.9%3,299 participants ÷ 5,600 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +35.8 ptsPresidential-dependent
- Drop-off versus state
- +7.9 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 23.1%–36.0%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 3,860 | 5,758 | 67.0% | C/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 3,218 | 5,641 | 57.0% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 3,975 | 5,516 | 72.1% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 2,031 | 5,599 | 36.3% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 3,299 | 5,600 | 58.9% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 148/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
27 precincts · 3,299 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -Locust Grove Baptist ChurchLocust Grove Baptist Church | 420 | 37 | 6 | 463 | 90.7% | 8.0% | D+82.7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -City HallCity Hall | 361 | 25 | 2 | 388 | 93.0% | 6.4% | D+86.6 |
| Precinct -Old Headstart BuildingOld Headstart Building | 316 | 62 | 2 | 380 | 83.2% | 16.3% | D+66.8 |
| Precinct -Mt Isreal Baptist ChurchMt Isreal Baptist Church | 307 | 38 | 4 | 349 | 88.0% | 10.9% | D+77.1 |
| Precinct -Union ChurchUnion Church | 130 | 141 | 0 | 271 | 48.0% | 52.0% | R+4.1 |
| Precinct -Red LickRed Lick | 227 | 34 | 3 | 264 | 86.0% | 12.9% | D+73.1 |
| Precinct -Multipurpose CenterMultipurpose Center | 225 | 6 | 2 | 233 | 96.6% | 2.6% | D+94.0 |
| Precinct -HarristonHarriston | 179 | 28 | 3 | 210 | 85.2% | 13.3% | D+71.9 |
| Precinct -StampleyStampley | 189 | 11 | 3 | 203 | 93.1% | 5.4% | D+87.7 |
| Precinct -LormanLorman | 149 | 37 | 1 | 187 | 79.7% | 19.8% | D+59.9 |
| Precinct -CannonsburgCannonsburg | 170 | 14 | 1 | 185 | 91.9% | 7.6% | D+84.3 |
| Precinct -Church HillChurch Hill | 54 | 108 | 4 | 166 | 32.5% | 65.1% | R+32.5 |
| Cannonsburg Voting District28_28063011 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Chancery Clerk Voting District28_28063009 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Church Hill Voting District28_28063012 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Circuit Clerk Voting District28_28063006 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| City Hall Voting District28_28063010 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Ebenezer Voting District28_28063002 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Fayette Manor Voting District28_28063015 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Harriston Voting District28_28063004 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Hwy 33 Voting District28_28063008 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Lorman Voting District28_28063014 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| McNair Voting District28_28063007 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Old Hollywood Church Voting District28_28063013 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Red Lick Voting District28_28063003 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Stampley Voting District28_28063005 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Union Church Voting District28_28063001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | +88.5% |
| 1896 | +83.4% |
| 1900 | +92.7% |
| 1904 | +96.0% |
| 1908 | +97.8% |
| 1912 | +94.2% |
| 1916 | +98.5% |
| 1920 | +93.5% |
| 1924 | +81.7% |
| 1928 | +85.9% |
| 1932 | +93.2% |
| 1936 | +97.9% |
| 1940 | +98.3% |
| 1944 | +93.7% |
| 1948 | +0.1% |
| 1952 | −6.2% |
| 1956 | +26.1% |
| 1960 | +8.4% |
| 1964 | −89.6% |
| 1968 | +58.4% |
| 1972 | +12.5% |
| 1976 | +52.0% |
| 1980 | +56.9% |
| 1984 | +56.1% |
| 1988 | +58.5% |
| 1992 | +63.4% |
| 1996 | +65.5% |
| 2000 | +64.1% |
| 2004 | +63.2% |
| 2008 | +74.4% |
| 2012 | +78.6% |
| 2016 | +73.8% |
| 2020 | +71.5% |
| 2024 | +66.3% |
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 6,630 |
| 2018 | 5,482 |
| 2020 | 5,779 |
| 2022 | 5,671 |
| 2024 | 9,027 |
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
−35 net domestic migration · 2025
Net −1,191 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $41,615 in average income, against $40,603 for residents who stayed — 2% higher. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean D+13.9 on average — 52 points more Republican-leaning than Jefferson County, MS itself (D+66.3).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Adams County, MS22D+13.9
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Adams County, MS25
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −144 |
| 2012 | +35 |
| 2013 | −73 |
| 2014 | −98 |
| 2015 | −93 |
| 2016 | −206 |
| 2017 | −82 |
| 2018 | −136 |
| 2019 | −104 |
| 2021 | −59 |
| 2022 | −30 |
| 2023 | −98 |
| 2024 | −68 |
| 2025 | −35 |
Jefferson County's electorate is roughly 85% Black, producing presidential margins that routinely rank among the widest of any county in the United States. Its small, rural population and persistent poverty rate shape a political profile defined more by demography than by urban density.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 98.5 points in 1916 and a Republican high of 89.6 points in 1964. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 5.3 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 66.3 points.
A population of 7,068, a 13% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $38,305 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Greene County and Claiborne County.
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Jefferson County, Mississippi. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/28063/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.