HarrisDemocratic36.7%7,650TrumpRepublican61.0%12,742KennedyIndependent1.0%208
R+24.4- Lead
- 5,092
- Total
- 20,872
- vs nation
- R+22.9
- Turnout
- 76.1%
Akashiccounty
Steele County, MN
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
President results by year
2024 turnout 76.1% of 27,564 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic37.5%7,917TrumpRepublican59.9%12,656JorgensenLibertarian1.3%278
R+22.4- Lead
- 4,739
- Total
- 21,128
- vs nation
- R+26.9
- Turnout
- 79.5%
ClintonDemocratic32.5%6,241TrumpRepublican58.4%11,198JohnsonLibertarian4.2%808
R+25.8- Lead
- 4,957
- Total
- 19,179
- vs nation
- R+27.9
- Turnout
- 72.4%
ObamaDemocratic45.5%8,706RomneyRepublican51.8%9,903GRAYLibertarian1.3%254
R+6.3- Lead
- 1,197
- Total
- 19,124
- vs nation
- R+10.1
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic45.9%9,016McCainRepublican51.2%10,068OtherAll other candidates2.9%572
R+5.4- Lead
- 1,052
- Total
- 19,656
- vs nation
- R+12.6
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic42.8%7,994BushRepublican55.6%10,389OtherAll other candidates1.7%312
R+12.8- Lead
- 2,395
- Total
- 18,695
- vs nation
- R+10.4
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic42.9%6,900BushRepublican51.2%8,223NaderGreen4.3%697
R+8.2- Lead
- 1,323
- Total
- 16,066
- vs nation
- R+8.8
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic46.6%6,974DoleRepublican37.5%5,617PerotReform14.7%2,197
D+9.1- Lead
- 1,357
- Total
- 14,964
- vs nation
- D+0.5
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+24.4MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 37,4392024 5-year
- Median household income
- $84,1962024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 83.5%2024 5-year
- Black
- 3.3%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 8.9%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+20.1 in 1912MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+55.4 in 1920MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Houston County, MN · twin score 88.2
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 76.1%20,989 participants ÷ 27,564 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +18.7 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- -1.2 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 57.4%–61.3%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 19,371 | 26,755 | 72.4% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 16,465 | 26,782 | 61.5% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 21,252 | 26,739 | 79.5% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 16,641 | 27,385 | 60.8% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 20,989 | 27,564 | 76.1% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
52 precincts · 20,872 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -OWATONNA W-1 P-2OWATONNA W-1 P-2 | 648 | 983 | 38 | 1,669 | 38.8% | 58.9% | R+20.1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -OWATONNA W-2 P-2OWATONNA W-2 P-2 | 671 | 945 | 52 | 1,668 | 40.2% | 56.7% | R+16.4 |
| Precinct -OWATONNA W-5 P-2OWATONNA W-5 P-2 | 628 | 962 | 37 | 1,627 | 38.6% | 59.1% | R+20.5 |
| Precinct -OWATONNA W-4 P-2OWATONNA W-4 P-2 | 627 | 860 | 30 | 1,517 | 41.3% | 56.7% | R+15.4 |
| Precinct -OWATONNA W-4 P-1OWATONNA W-4 P-1 | 595 | 822 | 27 | 1,444 | 41.2% | 56.9% | R+15.7 |
| Precinct -OWATONNA W-1 P-1OWATONNA W-1 P-1 | 663 | 744 | 30 | 1,437 | 46.1% | 51.8% | R+5.6 |
| Precinct -OWATONNA W-5 P-1OWATONNA W-5 P-1 | 553 | 813 | 46 | 1,412 | 39.2% | 57.6% | R+18.4 |
| Precinct -OWATONNA W-2 P-1OWATONNA W-2 P-1 | 506 | 720 | 22 | 1,248 | 40.5% | 57.7% | R+17.1 |
| Precinct -OWATONNA W-3 P-2OWATONNA W-3 P-2 | 511 | 701 | 27 | 1,239 | 41.2% | 56.6% | R+15.3 |
| Precinct -BLOOMING PRAIRIEBLOOMING PRAIRIE | 383 | 661 | 32 | 1,076 | 35.6% | 61.4% | R+25.8 |
| Precinct -OWATONNA W-3 P-1OWATONNA W-3 P-1 | 443 | 601 | 29 | 1,073 | 41.3% | 56.0% | R+14.7 |
| Precinct -MEDFORDMEDFORD | 232 | 523 | 20 | 775 | 29.9% | 67.5% | R+37.5 |
| Precinct -SOMERSET TWPSOMERSET TWP | 142 | 350 | 13 | 505 | 28.1% | 69.3% | R+41.2 |
| Precinct -OWATONNA TWPOWATONNA TWP | 95 | 307 | 6 | 408 | 23.3% | 75.2% | R+52.0 |
| Precinct -MERIDEN TWPMERIDEN TWP | 89 | 287 | 8 | 384 | 23.2% | 74.7% | R+51.6 |
| Precinct -ELLENDALEELLENDALE | 117 | 250 | 6 | 373 | 31.4% | 67.0% | R+35.7 |
| Precinct -HAVANA TWPHAVANA TWP | 95 | 252 | 3 | 350 | 27.1% | 72.0% | R+44.9 |
| Precinct -BERLIN TWPBERLIN TWP | 86 | 251 | 7 | 344 | 25.0% | 73.0% | R+48.0 |
| Precinct -DEERFIELD TWPDEERFIELD TWP | 66 | 272 | 3 | 341 | 19.4% | 79.8% | R+60.4 |
| Precinct -AURORA TWPAURORA TWP | 75 | 252 | 9 | 336 | 22.3% | 75.0% | R+52.7 |
| Precinct -LEMOND TWPLEMOND TWP | 79 | 243 | 9 | 331 | 23.9% | 73.4% | R+49.5 |
| Precinct -MEDFORD TWPMEDFORD TWP | 83 | 231 | 6 | 320 | 25.9% | 72.2% | R+46.3 |
| Precinct -SUMMIT TWPSUMMIT TWP | 70 | 197 | 2 | 269 | 26.0% | 73.2% | R+47.2 |
| Precinct -CLINTON FALLS TWPCLINTON FALLS TWP | 75 | 188 | 5 | 268 | 28.0% | 70.1% | R+42.2 |
| Precinct -BLOOMING PRAIRIE TWPBLOOMING PRAIRIE TWP | 68 | 177 | 7 | 252 | 27.0% | 70.2% | R+43.3 |
| Precinct -MERTON TWPMERTON TWP | 50 | 150 | 6 | 206 | 24.3% | 72.8% | R+48.5 |
| Aurora Twp. Voting District27_271470005 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Berlin Twp. Voting District27_271470010 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Blooming Prairie Twp. Voting District27_271470020 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Blooming Prairie Voting District27_271470015 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Clinton Falls Twp. Voting District27_271470025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Deerfield Twp. Voting District27_271470030 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Ellendale Voting District27_271470035 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Havana Twp. Voting District27_271470040 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Lemond Twp. Voting District27_271470045 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Medford Twp. Voting District27_271470055 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Medford Voting District27_271470050 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Meriden Twp. Voting District27_271470060 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Merton Twp. Voting District27_271470065 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Owatonna Twp. Voting District27_271470145 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Owatonna W-1 P-127_271470070 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Owatonna W-1 P-227_271470075 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Owatonna W-2 P-127_271470085 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Owatonna W-2 P-227_271470090 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Owatonna W-3 P-127_271470100 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Owatonna W-3 P-227_271470105 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Owatonna W-4 P-127_271470115 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Owatonna W-4 P-227_271470120 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Owatonna W-5 P-127_271470130 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Owatonna W-5 P-227_271470135 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Somerset Twp. Voting District27_271470150 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Summit Twp. Voting District27_271470155 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | −3.4% |
| 1896 | −23.2% |
| 1900 | −20.5% |
| 1904 | −31.1% |
| 1908 | −18.5% |
| 1912 | +20.1% |
| 1916 | −7.1% |
| 1920 | −55.4% |
| 1924 | −46.3% |
| 1928 | −25.3% |
| 1932 | +12.2% |
| 1936 | +13.5% |
| 1940 | −20.1% |
| 1944 | −18.0% |
| 1948 | −1.7% |
| 1952 | −42.2% |
| 1956 | −32.2% |
| 1960 | −20.4% |
| 1964 | +10.4% |
| 1968 | −14.0% |
| 1972 | −30.9% |
| 1976 | −5.8% |
| 1980 | −19.0% |
| 1984 | −26.7% |
| 1988 | −18.3% |
| 1992 | −5.1% |
| 1996 | +9.1% |
| 2000 | −8.2% |
| 2004 | −12.8% |
| 2008 | −5.4% |
| 2012 | −6.3% |
| 2016 | −25.8% |
| 2020 | −22.4% |
| 2024 | −24.4% |
DemocraticRepublican
Federal and statewide elections · 2 House · 38 Senate · 2 Senate special · 12 governor
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | R | 35.5%7,133 | 64.5%12,985 | 20,118 |
| 2020 | R | 42.7%8,297 | 57.3%11,120 | 19,417 |
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
Registered voters
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 22,375 |
| 2018 | 21,813 |
| 2020 | 23,859 |
| 2022 | 23,221 |
| 2024 | 24,387 |
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
−25 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net −1,600 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $55,983 in average income, against $80,599 for residents who stayed — 31% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+2.3 on average — 22 points more Democratic-leaning than Steele County, MN itself (R+24.4).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Rice County, MN144R+2.5
- Waseca County, MN72R+32.4
- Dakota County, MN62D+12.8
- Hennepin County, MN45D+42.4
- Olmsted County, MN45D+10.6
- Freeborn County, MN44R+21.3
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Rice County, MN114
- Hennepin County, MN75
- Dakota County, MN65
- Waseca County, MN55
- Olmsted County, MN51
- Freeborn County, MN46
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −178 |
| 2012 | −425 |
| 2013 | −136 |
| 2014 | −78 |
| 2015 | −61 |
| 2016 | −80 |
| 2017 | +35 |
| 2018 | −121 |
| 2019 | −166 |
| 2021 | −29 |
| 2022 | −62 |
| 2023 | −113 |
| 2024 | −161 |
| 2025 | −25 |
Steele County anchors Minnesota's southern tier, where a largely rural, white working-class electorate has produced Republican presidential margins exceeding 20 points in each of the last three cycles.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 20.1 points in 1912 and a Republican high of 55.4 points in 1920. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 2.0 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 24.4 points.
A population of 37,439, a 84% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $84,196 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Houston County and Waseca County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Houston County
Minnesota
88.2twin score
% unaffiliated% Evangelical2000–2012 trajectory≠ Norwegian ancestry
Waseca County
Minnesota
88.1twin score
2012 marginNorwegian ancestry% Catholic
Goodhue County
Minnesota
87.5twin score
Norwegian ancestrymedian income2012 margin≠ Swedish ancestry
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Steele County, Minnesota. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/27147/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Cities & towns in Steele County
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Frequently asked questions
How did Steele County, Minnesota vote in 2024?
In 2024, Steele County, Minnesota voted Republican by 24.4 points (R+24.4), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 20,872 votes cast, 7,650 went Democratic and 12,742 went Republican.
When did Steele County, Minnesota last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Steele County, Minnesota voted Democratic was 1996.
How many people live in Steele County, Minnesota?
Steele County, Minnesota has a population of 37,439 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Steele County, Minnesota?
Median household income in Steele County, Minnesota is $84,196 — above the national median of $80,734. The Minnesota state median is $89,062.
What is the political history of Steele County, Minnesota?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Steele County, Minnesota from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 5 went Democratic and 29 went Republican.