- Lead
- 3,987
- Total
- 12,484
- vs nation
- R+30.5
- Turnout
- 81.4%
Dodge County, MN
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
2024 turnout 81.4% of 15,428 citizens 18+
- Lead
- 3,704
- Total
- 12,187
- vs nation
- R+34.8
- Turnout
- 81.4%
- Lead
- 3,425
- Total
- 10,654
- vs nation
- R+34.2
- Turnout
- 74.1%
- Lead
- 1,035
- Total
- 10,327
- vs nation
- R+13.9
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 1,005
- Total
- 10,214
- vs nation
- R+17.1
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 1,476
- Total
- 9,868
- vs nation
- R+12.5
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 843
- Total
- 8,050
- vs nation
- R+11.0
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 345
- Total
- 7,435
- vs nation
- R+3.9
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+31.9MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 21,0452024 5-year
- Median household income
- $95,7392024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 89.4%2024 5-year
- Black
- 1.1%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 5.4%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+13.1 in 1936MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+70.7 in 1920MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Steele County, MN · twin score 86.6
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 81.4%12,555 participants ÷ 15,428 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +19.1 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- -0.9 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 62.3%–65.9%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 10,764 | 14,531 | 74.1% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 9,209 | 14,828 | 62.1% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 12,228 | 15,016 | 81.4% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 9,451 | 15,155 | 62.4% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 12,555 | 15,428 | 81.4% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
41 precincts · 12,484 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -KASSON P-2KASSON P-2 | 920 | 1,513 | 66 | 2,499 | 36.8% | 60.5% | R+23.7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -MANTORVILLE TWPMANTORVILLE TWP | 479 | 805 | 30 | 1,314 | 36.5% | 61.3% | R+24.8 |
| Precinct -DODGE CENTER P-1DODGE CENTER P-1 | 378 | 744 | 21 | 1,143 | 33.1% | 65.1% | R+32.0 |
| Precinct -KASSON P-3KASSON P-3 | 405 | 635 | 27 | 1,067 | 38.0% | 59.5% | R+21.6 |
| Precinct -HAYFIELDHAYFIELD | 267 | 474 | 12 | 753 | 35.5% | 62.9% | R+27.5 |
| Precinct -MANTORVILLEMANTORVILLE | 281 | 452 | 19 | 752 | 37.4% | 60.1% | R+22.7 |
| Precinct -WASIOJA TWPWASIOJA TWP | 121 | 408 | 17 | 546 | 22.2% | 74.7% | R+52.6 |
| Precinct -MILTON TWPMILTON TWP | 149 | 323 | 5 | 477 | 31.2% | 67.7% | R+36.5 |
| Precinct -WEST CONCORDWEST CONCORD | 122 | 315 | 7 | 444 | 27.5% | 70.9% | R+43.5 |
| Precinct -VERNON TWPVERNON TWP | 132 | 299 | 8 | 439 | 30.1% | 68.1% | R+38.0 |
| Precinct -CANISTEO TWPCANISTEO TWP | 125 | 307 | 6 | 438 | 28.5% | 70.1% | R+41.6 |
| Precinct -KASSON P-1KASSON P-1 | 151 | 239 | 9 | 399 | 37.8% | 59.9% | R+22.1 |
| Precinct -CONCORD TWPCONCORD TWP | 88 | 267 | 16 | 371 | 23.7% | 72.0% | R+48.2 |
| Precinct -HAYFIELD TWPHAYFIELD TWP | 88 | 208 | 4 | 300 | 29.3% | 69.3% | R+40.0 |
| Precinct -DODGE CENTER P-2DODGE CENTER P-2 | 78 | 206 | 3 | 287 | 27.2% | 71.8% | R+44.6 |
| Precinct -WESTFIELD TWPWESTFIELD TWP | 71 | 193 | 4 | 268 | 26.5% | 72.0% | R+45.5 |
| Precinct -CLAREMONT TWPCLAREMONT TWP | 73 | 188 | 4 | 265 | 27.5% | 70.9% | R+43.4 |
| Precinct -CLAREMONTCLAREMONT | 75 | 168 | 10 | 253 | 29.6% | 66.4% | R+36.8 |
| Precinct -ASHLAND TWPASHLAND TWP | 53 | 129 | 9 | 191 | 27.7% | 67.5% | R+39.8 |
| Precinct -ELLINGTON TWPELLINGTON TWP | 36 | 126 | 4 | 166 | 21.7% | 75.9% | R+54.2 |
| Precinct -RIPLEY TWPRIPLEY TWP | 16 | 96 | 0 | 112 | 14.3% | 85.7% | R+71.4 |
| Ashland Twp. Voting District27_270390005 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Blooming Prairie Voting District27_270390007 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Canisteo Twp. Voting District27_270390010 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Claremont Twp. Voting District27_270390020 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Claremont Voting District27_270390015 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Concord Twp. Voting District27_270390025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Dodge Center Voting District27_270390030 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Ellington Twp. Voting District27_270390035 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Hayfield Twp. Voting District27_270390045 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Hayfield Voting District27_270390040 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Kasson P-East27_270390051 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Kasson P-West27_270390050 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Mantorville Twp. Voting District27_270390060 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Mantorville Voting District27_270390055 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Milton Twp. Voting District27_270390065 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Ripley Twp. Voting District27_270390070 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Vernon Twp. Voting District27_270390075 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Wasioja Twp. Voting District27_270390080 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| West Concord Voting District27_270390085 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Westfield Twp. Voting District27_270390090 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | −31.0% |
| 1896 | −33.9% |
| 1900 | −37.8% |
| 1904 | −59.7% |
| 1908 | −45.1% |
| 1912 | +3.6% |
| 1916 | −16.2% |
| 1920 | −70.7% |
| 1924 | −61.0% |
| 1928 | −49.5% |
| 1932 | +11.2% |
| 1936 | +13.1% |
| 1940 | −16.0% |
| 1944 | −23.2% |
| 1948 | +2.9% |
| 1952 | −42.0% |
| 1956 | −27.7% |
| 1960 | −26.9% |
| 1964 | +11.8% |
| 1968 | −11.0% |
| 1972 | −32.7% |
| 1976 | −6.6% |
| 1980 | −16.9% |
| 1984 | −22.6% |
| 1988 | −13.5% |
| 1992 | −5.4% |
| 1996 | +4.6% |
| 2000 | −10.5% |
| 2004 | −15.0% |
| 2008 | −9.8% |
| 2012 | −10.0% |
| 2016 | −32.1% |
| 2020 | −30.4% |
| 2024 | −31.9% |
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 12,439 |
| 2018 | 12,418 |
| 2020 | 13,689 |
| 2022 | 13,576 |
| 2024 | 14,529 |
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
−47 net domestic migration · 2025
Net −474 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $57,840 in average income, against $93,626 for residents who stayed — 38% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean D+2.4 on average — 34 points more Democratic-leaning than Dodge County, MN itself (R+31.9).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Olmsted County, MN246D+10.6
- Goodhue County, MN40R+16.4
- Steele County, MN34R+24.4
- Mower County, MN29R+10.5
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Olmsted County, MN207
- Steele County, MN40
- Mower County, MN32
- Goodhue County, MN24
- Hennepin County, MN21
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −109 |
| 2012 | −81 |
| 2013 | −49 |
| 2014 | −68 |
| 2015 | −90 |
| 2016 | +10 |
| 2017 | +70 |
| 2018 | −21 |
| 2019 | +66 |
| 2021 | −28 |
| 2022 | −68 |
| 2023 | −40 |
| 2024 | −19 |
| 2025 | −47 |
Dodge County's small-town and agricultural character anchors one of southeast Minnesota's more reliably one-sided presidential electorates, with the 2024 margin of R+31.9 continuing a pattern of double-digit Republican advantages since at least 2012.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 13.1 points in 1936 and a Republican high of 70.7 points in 1920. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 1.5 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 31.9 points.
A population of 21,045, a 89% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $95,739 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Steele County and Goodhue County.
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Dodge County, Minnesota. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/27039/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.