- Lead
- 13,250
- Total
- 42,366
- vs nation
- R+29.8
- Turnout
- 79.5%
Crow Wing County, MN
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
2024 turnout 79.5% of 53,557 citizens 18+
- Lead
- 11,950
- Total
- 40,173
- vs nation
- R+34.2
- Turnout
- 79.4%
- Lead
- 11,305
- Total
- 35,842
- vs nation
- R+33.6
- Turnout
- 74.1%
- Lead
- 4,655
- Total
- 34,920
- vs nation
- R+17.2
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 2,708
- Total
- 35,165
- vs nation
- R+15.0
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 5,101
- Total
- 33,545
- vs nation
- R+12.7
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 3,780
- Total
- 28,128
- vs nation
- R+14.0
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 1,061
- Total
- 24,963
- vs nation
- R+4.3
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+31.3MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 67,6862024 5-year
- Median household income
- $72,5892024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 93.2%2024 5-year
- Black
- 0.5%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 1.6%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+28.3 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+65.1 in 1904MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Polk County, WI · twin score 91.4
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 79.5%42,602 participants ÷ 53,557 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +16.6 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- -3.3 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 62.9%–66.2%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 36,262 | 48,916 | 74.1% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 31,767 | 49,559 | 64.1% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 40,173 | 50,579 | 79.4% | C/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 32,809 | 52,256 | 62.8% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 42,602 | 53,557 | 79.5% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 152/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
124 precincts · 42,366 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -BAXTER P1EBAXTER P1E | 763 | 1,270 | 30 | 2,063 | 37.0% | 61.6% | R+24.6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -CROSSLAKE PCT 1CROSSLAKE PCT 1 | 655 | 1,330 | 32 | 2,017 | 32.5% | 65.9% | R+33.5 |
| Precinct -BREEZY POINT CITYBREEZY POINT CITY | 618 | 1,310 | 34 | 1,962 | 31.5% | 66.8% | R+35.3 |
| Precinct -UNORGANIZED 2UNORGANIZED 2 | 522 | 1,069 | 21 | 1,612 | 32.4% | 66.3% | R+33.9 |
| Precinct -NISSWA CITYNISSWA CITY | 574 | 988 | 34 | 1,596 | 36.0% | 61.9% | R+25.9 |
| Precinct -LAKE EDWARD TWPLAKE EDWARD TWP | 461 | 1,033 | 28 | 1,522 | 30.3% | 67.9% | R+37.6 |
| Precinct -PEQUOT LAKES CITYPEQUOT LAKES CITY | 476 | 978 | 24 | 1,478 | 32.2% | 66.2% | R+34.0 |
| Precinct -UNORGANIZED 3UNORGANIZED 3 | 429 | 839 | 25 | 1,293 | 33.2% | 64.9% | R+31.7 |
| Precinct -CROW WING TWPCROW WING TWP | 304 | 965 | 20 | 1,289 | 23.6% | 74.9% | R+51.3 |
| Precinct -BAXTER P1WBAXTER P1W | 483 | 692 | 24 | 1,199 | 40.3% | 57.7% | R+17.4 |
| Precinct -BAXTER P2EBAXTER P2E | 509 | 649 | 18 | 1,176 | 43.3% | 55.2% | R+11.9 |
| Precinct -CROSBY PCT 1CROSBY PCT 1 | 443 | 698 | 21 | 1,162 | 38.1% | 60.1% | R+21.9 |
| Precinct -BRAINERD W-2 P-1BRAINERD W-2 P-1 | 470 | 651 | 23 | 1,144 | 41.1% | 56.9% | R+15.8 |
| Precinct -BRAINERD W-1 P-2BRAINERD W-1 P-2 | 448 | 649 | 23 | 1,120 | 40.0% | 57.9% | R+17.9 |
| Precinct -OAK LAWN TWPOAK LAWN TWP | 325 | 761 | 23 | 1,109 | 29.3% | 68.6% | R+39.3 |
| Precinct -DEERWOOD TWPDEERWOOD TWP | 355 | 662 | 19 | 1,036 | 34.3% | 63.9% | R+29.6 |
| Precinct -BAXTER P2WBAXTER P2W | 379 | 616 | 19 | 1,014 | 37.4% | 60.7% | R+23.4 |
| Precinct -IDEAL TWPIDEAL TWP | 291 | 677 | 13 | 981 | 29.7% | 69.0% | R+39.3 |
| Precinct -BRAINERD W-4 P-1BRAINERD W-4 P-1 | 373 | 560 | 17 | 950 | 39.3% | 58.9% | R+19.7 |
| Precinct -BRAINERD W-3 P-2BRAINERD W-3 P-2 | 345 | 525 | 28 | 898 | 38.4% | 58.5% | R+20.0 |
| Precinct -IRONDALE TWPIRONDALE TWP | 223 | 556 | 26 | 805 | 27.7% | 69.1% | R+41.4 |
| Precinct -LONG LAKE TWPLONG LAKE TWP | 222 | 548 | 15 | 785 | 28.3% | 69.8% | R+41.5 |
| Precinct -EMILY CITYEMILY CITY | 214 | 513 | 6 | 733 | 29.2% | 70.0% | R+40.8 |
| Precinct -CENTER TWPCENTER TWP | 215 | 498 | 16 | 729 | 29.5% | 68.3% | R+38.8 |
| Precinct -BAY LAKE TWPBAY LAKE TWP | 275 | 433 | 9 | 717 | 38.4% | 60.4% | R+22.0 |
| Precinct -FORT RIPLEY TWPFORT RIPLEY TWP | 167 | 519 | 17 | 703 | 23.8% | 73.8% | R+50.1 |
| Precinct -BRAINERD W-2 P-2BRAINERD W-2 P-2 | 310 | 353 | 18 | 681 | 45.5% | 51.8% | R+6.3 |
| Precinct -BRAINERD W-3 P-1BRAINERD W-3 P-1 | 275 | 378 | 17 | 670 | 41.0% | 56.4% | R+15.4 |
| Precinct -BRAINERD W-4 P-2BRAINERD W-4 P-2 | 226 | 409 | 14 | 649 | 34.8% | 63.0% | R+28.2 |
| Precinct -MISSION TWPMISSION TWP | 203 | 416 | 7 | 626 | 32.4% | 66.5% | R+34.0 |
| Precinct -BRAINERD W-1 P-1BRAINERD W-1 P-1 | 255 | 351 | 19 | 625 | 40.8% | 56.2% | R+15.4 |
| Precinct -GARRISON TWPGARRISON TWP | 222 | 382 | 9 | 613 | 36.2% | 62.3% | R+26.1 |
| Precinct -NOKAY LAKE TWPNOKAY LAKE TWP | 155 | 391 | 8 | 554 | 28.0% | 70.6% | R+42.6 |
| Precinct -MAPLE GROVE TWPMAPLE GROVE TWP | 127 | 384 | 8 | 519 | 24.5% | 74.0% | R+49.5 |
| Precinct -UNORGANIZED 1UNORGANIZED 1 | 160 | 294 | 7 | 461 | 34.7% | 63.8% | R+29.1 |
| Precinct -UNORGANIZED 4UNORGANIZED 4 | 117 | 311 | 8 | 436 | 26.8% | 71.3% | R+44.5 |
| Precinct -FIFTY LAKES CITYFIFTY LAKES CITY | 117 | 314 | 4 | 435 | 26.9% | 72.2% | R+45.3 |
| Precinct -ROOSEVELT TWPROOSEVELT TWP | 133 | 295 | 5 | 433 | 30.7% | 68.1% | R+37.4 |
| Precinct -PELICAN TWPPELICAN TWP | 120 | 278 | 8 | 406 | 29.6% | 68.5% | R+38.9 |
| Precinct -ST MATHIAS TWPST MATHIAS TWP | 95 | 293 | 8 | 396 | 24.0% | 74.0% | R+50.0 |
| Precinct -DAGGETT BROOK TWPDAGGETT BROOK TWP | 75 | 292 | 7 | 374 | 20.1% | 78.1% | R+58.0 |
| Precinct -JENKINS TWPJENKINS TWP | 95 | 228 | 2 | 325 | 29.2% | 70.2% | R+40.9 |
| Precinct -IRONTON CITYIRONTON CITY | 100 | 193 | 4 | 297 | 33.7% | 65.0% | R+31.3 |
| Precinct -JENKINS CITYJENKINS CITY | 76 | 203 | 8 | 287 | 26.5% | 70.7% | R+44.3 |
| Precinct -WOLFORD TWPWOLFORD TWP | 87 | 191 | 6 | 284 | 30.6% | 67.3% | R+36.6 |
| Precinct -DEERWOOD CITYDEERWOOD CITY | 100 | 152 | 3 | 255 | 39.2% | 59.6% | R+20.4 |
| Precinct -FAIRFIELD TWPFAIRFIELD TWP | 93 | 156 | 6 | 255 | 36.5% | 61.2% | R+24.7 |
| Precinct -RABBIT LAKE TWPRABBIT LAKE TWP | 74 | 164 | 7 | 245 | 30.2% | 66.9% | R+36.7 |
| Precinct -PERRY LAKE TWPPERRY LAKE TWP | 46 | 161 | 4 | 211 | 21.8% | 76.3% | R+54.5 |
| Precinct -PLATTE LAKE TWPPLATTE LAKE TWP | 39 | 160 | 2 | 201 | 19.4% | 79.6% | R+60.2 |
| Precinct -CUYUNA CITYCUYUNA CITY | 74 | 114 | 5 | 193 | 38.3% | 59.1% | R+20.7 |
| Precinct -ROSS LAKE TWPROSS LAKE TWP | 69 | 89 | 2 | 160 | 43.1% | 55.6% | R+12.5 |
| Precinct -TIMOTHY TWPTIMOTHY TWP | 35 | 89 | 4 | 128 | 27.3% | 69.5% | R+42.2 |
| Precinct -GARRISON CITYGARRISON CITY | 33 | 72 | 2 | 107 | 30.8% | 67.3% | R+36.4 |
| Precinct -DEAN LAKE PCTDEAN LAKE PCT | 21 | 67 | 0 | 88 | 23.9% | 76.1% | R+52.3 |
| Precinct -RIVERTON CITYRIVERTON CITY | 30 | 35 | 1 | 66 | 45.5% | 53.0% | R+7.6 |
| Precinct -LITTLE PINE TWPLITTLE PINE TWP | 24 | 41 | 0 | 65 | 36.9% | 63.1% | R+26.2 |
| Precinct -GAIL LAKE TWPGAIL LAKE TWP | 4 | 58 | 0 | 62 | 6.5% | 93.5% | R+87.1 |
| Precinct -TROMMALD CITYTROMMALD CITY | 24 | 37 | 1 | 62 | 38.7% | 59.7% | R+21.0 |
| Precinct -FORT RIPLEY CITYFORT RIPLEY CITY | 7 | 42 | 1 | 50 | 14.0% | 84.0% | R+70.0 |
| Precinct -MANHATTAN BEACH CITYMANHATTAN BEACH CITY | 9 | 38 | 0 | 47 | 19.1% | 80.9% | R+61.7 |
| Precinct -BRAINERD W-3 P-3BRAINERD W-3 P-3 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 57.1% | 42.9% | D+14.3 |
| Baxter P-1E27_270350005 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Baxter P-1W27_270350006 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Baxter P-2E27_270350007 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Baxter P-2W27_270350008 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Bay Lake Twp. Voting District27_270350010 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Blue Prec.27_270350185 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Brainerd W-1 P-127_270350015 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Brainerd W-1 P-227_270350016 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Brainerd W-2 P-127_270350020 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Brainerd W-2 P-227_270350025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Brainerd W-3 P-127_270350035 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Brainerd W-3 P-227_270350040 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Brainerd W-4 P-127_270350045 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Brainerd W-4 P-227_270350050 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Breezy Point City Voting District27_270350055 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Center Twp. Voting District27_270350060 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Crosby P-1 Voting District27_270350065 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Crosby P-2 Voting District27_270350070 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Crosslake P-1 Voting District27_270350075 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Crosslake P-2 Voting District27_270350076 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Crow Wing Twp. Voting District27_270350080 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Cuyuna City Voting District27_270350085 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Daggett Brook Twp. Voting District27_270350090 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Dean Lake Prec. Voting District27_270350100 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Deerwood City Voting District27_270350105 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Deerwood Twp. Voting District27_270350110 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Emily City Voting District27_270350115 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Fairfield Twp. Voting District27_270350120 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Fifty Lakes City Voting District27_270350125 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Fort Ripley City Voting District27_270350130 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Fort Ripley Twp. Voting District27_270350135 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Gail Lake Twp. Voting District27_270350140 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Garrison City Voting District27_270350145 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Garrison Twp. Voting District27_270350150 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Ideal Twp. Voting District27_270350155 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Irondale Twp. Voting District27_270350160 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Ironton City Voting District27_270350170 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Jenkins City Voting District27_270350175 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Jenkins Twp. Voting District27_270350180 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Lake Edward Twp. Voting District27_270350190 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Little Pine Twp. Voting District27_270350195 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Long Lake Twp. Voting District27_270350200 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Manhattan Beach City Voting District27_270350205 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Maple Grove Twp. Voting District27_270350210 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Mission Twp. Voting District27_270350215 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Nisswa City Voting District27_270350220 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Nokay Lake Twp. Voting District27_270350225 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Oak Lawn Twp. Voting District27_270350230 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Pelican Twp. Voting District27_270350235 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Pequot Lakes City Voting District27_270350240 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Perry Lake Twp. Voting District27_270350245 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Platte Lake Twp. Voting District27_270350250 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Rabbit Lake Twp. Voting District27_270350255 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Red Prec.27_270350295 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Riverton City Voting District27_270350165 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Roosevelt Twp. Voting District27_270350260 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Ross Lake Twp. Voting District27_270350265 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| St. Mathias Twp. Voting District27_270350275 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Timothy Twp. Voting District27_270350280 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Trommald City Voting District27_270350285 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| White Prec.27_270350095 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Wolford Twp. Voting District27_270350290 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | −23.0% |
| 1896 | −22.2% |
| 1900 | −37.2% |
| 1904 | −65.1% |
| 1908 | −36.1% |
| 1912 | +0.5% |
| 1916 | −3.8% |
| 1920 | −55.9% |
| 1924 | −45.1% |
| 1928 | −37.8% |
| 1932 | +11.2% |
| 1936 | +27.6% |
| 1940 | +10.8% |
| 1944 | +10.0% |
| 1948 | +17.5% |
| 1952 | −8.6% |
| 1956 | −9.0% |
| 1960 | −6.1% |
| 1964 | +28.3% |
| 1968 | +4.9% |
| 1972 | −8.7% |
| 1976 | +13.2% |
| 1980 | −7.0% |
| 1984 | −13.1% |
| 1988 | −6.4% |
| 1992 | −0.9% |
| 1996 | +4.3% |
| 2000 | −13.4% |
| 2004 | −15.2% |
| 2008 | −7.7% |
| 2012 | −13.3% |
| 2016 | −31.5% |
| 2020 | −29.7% |
| 2024 | −31.3% |
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 41,939 |
| 2018 | 41,808 |
| 2020 | 46,016 |
| 2022 | 46,522 |
| 2024 | 49,376 |
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+565 net domestic migration · 2025
Net +5,466 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $81,745 in average income, against $80,941 for residents who stayed — 1% higher. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+13.8 on average — 17 points more Democratic-leaning than Crow Wing County, MN itself (R+31.3).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Cass County, MN219R+33.4
- Hennepin County, MN164D+42.4
- Morrison County, MN89R+55.9
- Aitkin County, MN85R+30.8
- Anoka County, MN75R+4.4
- Stearns County, MN72R+26.7
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Cass County, MN248
- Hennepin County, MN147
- Morrison County, MN76
- Aitkin County, MN69
- Stearns County, MN62
- Anoka County, MN45
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −98 |
| 2012 | +20 |
| 2013 | +131 |
| 2014 | +20 |
| 2015 | +63 |
| 2016 | +405 |
| 2017 | +573 |
| 2018 | +566 |
| 2019 | +294 |
| 2021 | +1,271 |
| 2022 | +716 |
| 2023 | +528 |
| 2024 | +412 |
| 2025 | +565 |
Home to Brainerd and hundreds of recreational lakes, Crow Wing draws retirees and seasonal residents whose presence has reinforced a rural conservative lean that now clears 30 points in presidential cycles.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 28.3 points in 1964 and a Republican high of 65.1 points in 1904. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 1.5 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 31.3 points.
A population of 67,686, a 93% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $72,589 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Polk County and Chisago County.
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Crow Wing County, Minnesota. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/27035/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.