- Lead
- 6,392
- Total
- 12,209
- vs nation
- D+53.8
- Turnout
- 77.8%
Dukes County, MA
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
2024 turnout 77.8% of 15,850 citizens 18+
- Lead
- 7,283
- Total
- 12,873
- vs nation
- D+52.1
- Turnout
- 95.0%
- Lead
- 5,923
- Total
- 11,851
- vs nation
- D+47.9
- Turnout
- 89.6%
- Lead
- 5,186
- Total
- 10,968
- vs nation
- D+43.4
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 5,471
- Total
- 10,553
- vs nation
- D+44.6
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 4,663
- Total
- 9,997
- vs nation
- D+49.1
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 3,159
- Total
- 8,856
- vs nation
- D+35.2
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 3,398
- Total
- 7,702
- vs nation
- D+35.6
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+52.4MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 20,9332024 5-year
- Median household income
- $125,7862024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 80.0%2024 5-year
- Black
- 2.7%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 3.3%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+56.6 in 2020MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+79.0 in 1924MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Pitkin County, CO · twin score 95.3
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 77.8%12,337 participants ÷ 15,850 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +33.1 ptsPresidential-dependent
- Drop-off versus state
- +9.4 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 44.8%–56.0%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 11,851 | 13,225 | 89.6% | B/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 10,275 | 13,012 | 79.0% | B/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 12,873 | 13,554 | 95.0% | B/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 9,407 | 15,192 | 61.9% | B/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 12,337 | 15,850 | 77.8% | B/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:aggregated; allocation share 0.0%; series 292/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:aggregated; allocation share 0.0%; series 296/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:aggregated; allocation share 0.0%; series 300/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:aggregated; allocation share 0.0%; series 305/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:aggregated; allocation share 0.0%; series 310/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
7 precincts · 12,209 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -Oak Bluffs Precinct 1Oak Bluffs Precinct 1 | 2,247 | 798 | 61 | 3,106 | 72.3% | 25.7% | D+46.7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -Edgartown Precinct 1Edgartown Precinct 1 | 1,969 | 857 | 74 | 2,900 | 67.9% | 29.6% | D+38.3 |
| Precinct -Tisbury Precinct 1Tisbury Precinct 1 | 2,031 | 548 | 85 | 2,664 | 76.2% | 20.6% | D+55.7 |
| Precinct -West Tisbury Precinct 1West Tisbury Precinct 1 | 1,757 | 367 | 66 | 2,190 | 80.2% | 16.8% | D+63.5 |
| Precinct -Chilmark Precinct 1Chilmark Precinct 1 | 778 | 123 | 30 | 931 | 83.6% | 13.2% | D+70.4 |
| Precinct -Aquinnah Precinct 1Aquinnah Precinct 1 | 304 | 37 | 10 | 351 | 86.6% | 10.5% | D+76.1 |
| Precinct -Gosnold Precinct 1Gosnold Precinct 1 | 51 | 15 | 1 | 67 | 76.1% | 22.4% | D+53.7 |
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | −39.6% |
| 1896 | −69.9% |
| 1900 | −64.5% |
| 1904 | −64.2% |
| 1908 | −59.5% |
| 1912 | −7.0% |
| 1916 | −19.7% |
| 1920 | −73.9% |
| 1924 | −79.0% |
| 1928 | −51.9% |
| 1932 | −38.6% |
| 1936 | −27.7% |
| 1940 | −23.6% |
| 1944 | −22.9% |
| 1948 | −40.7% |
| 1952 | −52.3% |
| 1956 | −65.7% |
| 1960 | −21.8% |
| 1964 | +36.5% |
| 1968 | −1.1% |
| 1972 | −7.2% |
| 1976 | +2.9% |
| 1980 | +10.4% |
| 1984 | +8.6% |
| 1988 | +29.2% |
| 1992 | +31.3% |
| 1996 | +44.1% |
| 2000 | +35.7% |
| 2004 | +46.6% |
| 2008 | +51.8% |
| 2012 | +47.3% |
| 2016 | +50.0% |
| 2020 | +56.6% |
| 2024 | +52.4% |
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | D | 76.4%9,047 | 23.6%2,795 | 11,842 |
| 2020 | D | 80.1%9,815 | 19.9%2,434 | 12,249 |
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Registration leans Democratic; the presidential vote runs 25 points more Republican.
16,795 registered voters · 2025
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
−241 net domestic migration · 2025
Net +168 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $167,880 in average income, against $118,562 for residents who stayed — 42% higher. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean D+20.6 on average — 32 points more Republican-leaning than Dukes County, MA itself (D+52.4).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Barnstable County, MA35D+20.6
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Barnstable County, MA72
- New York County, NY26
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +98 |
| 2012 | +122 |
| 2013 | +311 |
| 2014 | +127 |
| 2015 | −58 |
| 2016 | +36 |
| 2017 | −10 |
| 2018 | −6 |
| 2019 | −19 |
| 2021 | +518 |
| 2022 | −330 |
| 2023 | −339 |
| 2024 | −41 |
| 2025 | −241 |
This island county's seasonal population swells well beyond its 15,000 year-round residents, but its electorate consistently tilts heavily Democratic — the 2024 presidential margin of D+52 ranks among the most lopsided in Massachusetts.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 56.6 points in 2020 and a Republican high of 79.0 points in 1924. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 4.2 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 52.4 points.
A population of 20,933, a 80% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $125,786 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Pitkin County and Marin County.
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Dukes County, Massachusetts. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/25007/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.