- Lead
- 30,314
- Total
- 110,207
- vs nation
- D+29.0
Massachusetts Cape and Islands District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 35,691
- Total
- 112,096
- vs nation
- D+27.4
- Lead
- 21,717
- Total
- 103,217
- vs nation
- D+19.0
- Lead
- 15,354
- Total
- 98,230
- vs nation
- D+11.8
- Lead
- 21,455
- Total
- 97,815
- vs nation
- D+14.7
- Lead
- 16,969
- Total
- 96,848
- vs nation
- D+20.0
- Lead
- 14,106
- Total
- 88,317
- vs nation
- D+15.5
- Lead
- 18,014
- Total
- 80,199
- vs nation
- D+13.9
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+27.5MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 174,3522024 5-year
- Population density
- 444 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 393 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $96,7742024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 81.5%2024 5-year
- Black
- 3.9%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 4.9%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+31.8 in 2020MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+75.2 in 1896MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Plymouth and Barnstable District, MA · twin score 91.2
presidential history
Party record book
Massachusetts Cape and Islands District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
64.9%
72,767 votes · D+31.8 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 62.5%
Republican
Calvin Coolidge1924
84.4%
6,196 votes · R+73.3 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · William McKinley, 1896 · 83.6%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
72,767votes
64.9% of the vote · D+31.8 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 68,902 votes
Republican
Mitt Romney2012
40,708votes
41.4% of the vote · D+15.6 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · George W. Bush, 2004 · 39,322 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Kamala Harris2024
+29.0pts D vs U.S.
Place D+27.5 · U.S. R+1.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · +27.4 pts
Republican
William McKinley1896
+69.1pts R vs U.S.
Place R+75.2 · U.S. R+6.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Alf Landon, 1936 · +58.8 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | D | 63.0%66,776 | 37.0%39,182 | 105,958 |
| 2020 | D | 67.5%71,003 | 32.5%34,203 | 105,206 |
Covering Cape Cod, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket, this district combines a heavily seasonal population with a year-round base that skews older and white — and has backed Democratic presidential candidates by wide margins for decades.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 31.8 points in 2020 and a Republican high of 75.2 points in 1896. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 4.3 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 27.5 points.
A population of 174,352, a 82% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $96,774 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Plymouth and Barnstable District and State Senate District 24.
The state-senate districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Massachusetts Cape and Islands District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-upper/25D40/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.