HarrisDemocratic31.0%10,327TrumpRepublican65.5%21,831OtherAll other candidates3.5%1,169
R+34.5- Lead
- 11,504
- Total
- 33,327
- vs nation
- R+33.0
- Turnout
- 71.7%
Akashiccounty
Kenai Peninsula Borough, AK
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
The precinct map shows the 2024 presidential vote; the timeline scrubs the county’s overall result across 1960–2024.
President results by year
2024 turnout 71.7% of 46,492 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic32.6%11,077TrumpRepublican64.2%21,797OtherAll other candidates3.2%1,071
R+31.6- Lead
- 10,720
- Total
- 33,945
- vs nation
- R+36.0
- Turnout
- 75.4%
ClintonDemocratic26.1%7,550TrumpRepublican63.3%18,298OtherAll other candidates10.5%3,036
R+37.2- Lead
- 10,748
- Total
- 28,884
- vs nation
- R+39.3
- Turnout
- 66.0%
ObamaDemocratic29.7%7,726RomneyRepublican66.0%17,148OtherAll other candidates4.3%1,120
R+36.2- Lead
- 9,422
- Total
- 25,994
- vs nation
- R+40.1
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic29.7%8,375McCainRepublican67.3%18,962OtherAll other candidates2.9%822
R+37.6- Lead
- 10,587
- Total
- 28,159
- vs nation
- R+44.9
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic31.1%7,105BushRepublican64.8%14,802OtherAll other candidates4.0%923
R+33.7- Lead
- 7,697
- Total
- 22,830
- vs nation
- R+31.3
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic19.7%4,631BushRepublican64.0%15,052NaderGreen12.1%2,853
R+44.3- Lead
- 10,421
- Total
- 23,519
- vs nation
- R+44.8
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic26.7%5,183DoleRepublican54.7%10,608PerotReform12.7%2,465
R+28.0- Lead
- 5,425
- Total
- 19,388
- vs nation
- R+36.5
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+34.5MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 60,4132024 5-year
- Population density
- 3.8 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 16,018 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $80,5382024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 77.5%2024 5-year
- Black
- 0.6%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 4.4%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+29.1 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+45.0 in 1984MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Matanuska-Susitna Borough, AK · twin score 87.2
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 71.7%33,327 participants ÷ 46,492 CVAP
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 28,885 | 43,771 | 66.0% | C/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 33,945 | 44,994 | 75.4% | C/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 33,327 | 46,492 | 71.7% | C/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 148/111.
- 2020: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 152/2.
- 2024: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 156/228.
presidential history
Party record book
Kenai Peninsula Borough, AK · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1960–2024 · 17 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
64.5%
2,301 votes · D+29.1
Runner-up · John F. Kennedy, 1960 · 52.7%
Republican
Ronald Reagan1984
70.1%
10,305 votes · R+45.0
Runner-up · John McCain, 2008 · 67.3%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
11,077votes
32.6% of the vote · R+31.6
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 10,327 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
21,831votes
65.5% of the vote · R+34.5
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 21,797 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
+6.5pts D vs U.S.
Place D+29.1 · U.S. D+22.6
Runner-up · John F. Kennedy, 1960 · +5.3 pts
Republican
John McCain2008
+44.9pts R vs U.S.
Place R+37.6 · U.S. D+7.3
Runner-up · George W. Bush, 2000 · +44.8 pts
voter registration
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Party registration · 2026R+22.8
Presidential vote · 2024R+34.5
Registration leans Republican; the presidential vote runs 12 points more Republican than the rolls.
55,330 registered voters · 2026
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+371 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net +2,605 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $77,305 in average income, against $94,453 for residents who stayed — 18% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+11.0 on average — 24 points more Democratic-leaning than Kenai Peninsula Borough, AK itself (R+34.5).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Anchorage Municipality, AK239D+1.4
- Matanuska-Susitna Borough, AK79R+47.7
- Fairbanks North Star Borough, AK46R+18.7
- Maricopa County, AZ39R+3.5
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Anchorage Municipality, AK272
- Matanuska-Susitna Borough, AK122
- Fairbanks North Star Borough, AK36
- Maricopa County, AZ29
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +406 |
| 2012 | +207 |
| 2013 | −291 |
| 2014 | +208 |
| 2015 | +163 |
| 2016 | +105 |
| 2017 | −273 |
| 2018 | −208 |
| 2019 | +6 |
| 2021 | +782 |
| 2022 | +602 |
| 2023 | +554 |
| 2024 | −27 |
| 2025 | +371 |
The Kenai Peninsula's workforce is anchored in fishing, oil-field services, and tourism, producing one of Alaska's most reliably Republican margins — R+34 in 2024 — despite a sparse, dispersed population spread across nearly 16,000 square miles.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 29.1 points in 1964 and a Republican high of 45.0 points in 1984. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 2.9 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 34.5 points.
A population of 60,413, a 78% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $80,538 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Matanuska-Susitna Borough and Saline County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Matanuska-Susitna Borough
Alaska
87.2twin score
elasticity2000–2008 trajectory12-yr trend≠ Scottish ancestry
Saline County
Arkansas
84.5twin score
elasticity12-yr trend2008 margin≠ 2000 margin
Rogers County
Oklahoma
81.2twin score
elasticity2004–2008 trajectory12-yr trend
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Kenai Peninsula Borough, Alaska. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/02122/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Cities & towns in Kenai Peninsula Borough
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Frequently asked questions
How did Kenai Peninsula Borough, Alaska vote in 2024?
In 2024, Kenai Peninsula Borough, Alaska voted Republican by 34.5 points (R+34.5), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 33,327 votes cast, 10,327 went Democratic and 21,831 went Republican.
When did Kenai Peninsula Borough, Alaska last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Kenai Peninsula Borough, Alaska voted Democratic was 1968.
How many people live in Kenai Peninsula Borough, Alaska?
Kenai Peninsula Borough, Alaska has a population of 60,413 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Kenai Peninsula Borough, Alaska?
Median household income in Kenai Peninsula Borough, Alaska is $80,538 — below the national median of $80,734. The Alaska state median is $92,788.
What is the political history of Kenai Peninsula Borough, Alaska?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Kenai Peninsula Borough, Alaska from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 3 went Democratic and 14 went Republican.