HarrisDemocratic24.1%13,380TrumpRepublican72.5%40,204OtherAll other candidates3.3%1,842
R+48.4- Lead
- 26,824
- Total
- 55,426
- vs nation
- R+46.9
- Turnout
- 66.8%
Akashiccounty
Matanuska-Susitna Borough, AK
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
The precinct map shows the 2024 presidential vote; the timeline scrubs the county’s overall result across 1960–2024.
President results by year
2024 turnout 66.8% of 82,927 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic24.0%12,970TrumpRepublican72.3%39,010OtherAll other candidates3.6%1,952
R+48.3- Lead
- 26,040
- Total
- 53,932
- vs nation
- R+52.7
- Turnout
- 69.6%
ClintonDemocratic19.1%8,519TrumpRepublican70.6%31,561OtherAll other candidates10.4%4,634
R+51.5- Lead
- 23,042
- Total
- 44,714
- vs nation
- R+53.6
- Turnout
- 63.6%
ObamaDemocratic24.3%9,329RomneyRepublican71.3%27,327OtherAll other candidates4.4%1,690
R+46.9- Lead
- 17,998
- Total
- 38,346
- vs nation
- R+50.8
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic22.9%9,287McCainRepublican74.5%30,226OtherAll other candidates2.7%1,077
R+51.6- Lead
- 20,939
- Total
- 40,590
- vs nation
- R+58.9
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic25.9%8,288BushRepublican70.7%22,650OtherAll other candidates3.4%1,081
R+44.9- Lead
- 14,362
- Total
- 32,019
- vs nation
- R+42.4
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic19.6%5,373BushRepublican65.5%17,988NaderGreen9.4%2,584
R+46.0- Lead
- 12,615
- Total
- 27,448
- vs nation
- R+46.5
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic22.8%4,525DoleRepublican57.0%11,307PerotReform15.5%3,082
R+34.2- Lead
- 6,782
- Total
- 19,834
- vs nation
- R+42.7
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+48.4MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 112,9882024 5-year
- Population density
- 4.6 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 24,707 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $94,0312024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 75.7%2024 5-year
- Black
- 1.1%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 5.4%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+52.7 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+51.7 in 1984MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Wagoner County, OK · twin score 89.8
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 66.8%55,426 participants ÷ 82,927 CVAP
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 44,714 | 70,359 | 63.6% | C/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 53,932 | 77,456 | 69.6% | C/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 55,426 | 82,927 | 66.8% | C/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 148/111.
- 2020: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 152/2.
- 2024: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 156/228.
presidential history
Party record book
Matanuska-Susitna Borough, AK · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1960–2024 · 17 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
76.3%
1,326 votes · D+52.7
Runner-up · John F. Kennedy, 1960 · 44.0%
Republican
John McCain2008
74.5%
30,226 votes · R+51.6
Runner-up · Ronald Reagan, 1984 · 73.4%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Kamala Harris2024
13,380votes
24.1% of the vote · R+48.4
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · 12,970 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
40,204votes
72.5% of the vote · R+48.4
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 39,010 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
+30.1pts D vs U.S.
Place D+52.7 · U.S. D+22.6
Runner-up · Hubert Humphrey, 1968 · −7.2 pts
Republican
John McCain2008
+58.9pts R vs U.S.
Place R+51.6 · U.S. D+7.3
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2016 · +53.6 pts
voter registration
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Party registration · 2026R+27.2
Presidential vote · 2024R+48.4
Registration leans Republican; the presidential vote runs 21 points more Republican than the rolls.
97,916 registered voters · 2026
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+884 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net +19,104 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $76,650 in average income, against $96,685 for residents who stayed — 21% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+2.1 on average — 46 points more Democratic-leaning than Matanuska-Susitna Borough, AK itself (R+48.4).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Anchorage Municipality, AK1,023D+1.4
- Kenai Peninsula Borough, AK122R+34.8
- Fairbanks North Star Borough, AK117R+18.7
- Maricopa County, AZ43R+3.5
- Juneau City and Borough, AK39D+26.5
- Pierce County, WA30D+10.7
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Anchorage Municipality, AK697
- Kenai Peninsula Borough, AK79
- Fairbanks North Star Borough, AK72
- Maricopa County, AZ49
- Copper River Census Area, AK28
- Pima County, AZ26
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +1,163 |
| 2012 | +1,080 |
| 2013 | +1,277 |
| 2014 | +1,295 |
| 2015 | +1,925 |
| 2016 | +2,051 |
| 2017 | +1,154 |
| 2018 | +149 |
| 2019 | +466 |
| 2021 | +3,055 |
| 2022 | +1,919 |
| 2023 | +1,202 |
| 2024 | +1,484 |
| 2025 | +884 |
Matanuska-Susitna has absorbed waves of Anchorage exurban migration over two decades, and its 2024 presidential margin of R+48.3 reflects an electorate that ranks among the most reliably conservative in the entire state.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 52.7 points in 1964 and a Republican high of 51.7 points in 1984. The 2024 margin was 48.4 points.
A population of 112,988, a 76% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $94,031 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Wagoner County and Rogers County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Wagoner County
Oklahoma
89.8twin score
elasticity2008–2016 trajectory≠ 2000 margin
Rogers County
Oklahoma
88.0twin score
elasticity2008–2016 trajectory
Kenai Peninsula Borough
Alaska
87.2twin score
elasticity2000–2008 trajectory12-yr trend≠ Scottish ancestry
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Matanuska-Susitna Borough, Alaska. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/02170/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Cities & towns in Matanuska-Susitna Borough
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Frequently asked questions
How did Matanuska-Susitna Borough, Alaska vote in 2024?
In 2024, Matanuska-Susitna Borough, Alaska voted Republican by 48.4 points (R+48.4), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 55,426 votes cast, 13,380 went Democratic and 40,204 went Republican.
When did Matanuska-Susitna Borough, Alaska last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Matanuska-Susitna Borough, Alaska voted Democratic was 1964.
How many people live in Matanuska-Susitna Borough, Alaska?
Matanuska-Susitna Borough, Alaska has a population of 112,988 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Matanuska-Susitna Borough, Alaska?
Median household income in Matanuska-Susitna Borough, Alaska is $94,031 — above the national median of $80,734. The Alaska state median is $92,788.
What is the political history of Matanuska-Susitna Borough, Alaska?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Matanuska-Susitna Borough, Alaska from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 1 went Democratic and 16 went Republican.