HarrisDemocratic24.2%9,330TrumpRepublican74.0%28,487OtherAll other candidates1.8%684
R+49.8- Lead
- 19,157
- Total
- 38,501
- vs nation
- R+48.3
- Turnout
- 60.2%
Akashiccounty
Wagoner County, OK
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
President results by year
2024 turnout 60.2% of 64,231 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic24.0%8,464TrumpRepublican74.0%26,165JorgensenLibertarian1.4%503
R+50.1- Lead
- 17,701
- Total
- 35,338
- vs nation
- R+54.5
- Turnout
- 59.8%
ClintonDemocratic21.5%6,723TrumpRepublican73.5%23,005JohnsonLibertarian5.0%1,572
R+52.0- Lead
- 16,282
- Total
- 31,300
- vs nation
- R+54.1
- Turnout
- 56.8%
ObamaDemocratic27.2%7,791RomneyRepublican72.8%20,900OtherAll other candidates0.0%0
R+45.7- Lead
- 13,109
- Total
- 28,691
- vs nation
- R+49.5
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic29.1%8,810McCainRepublican70.9%21,441OtherAll other candidates0.0%0
R+41.8- Lead
- 12,631
- Total
- 30,251
- vs nation
- R+49.0
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic32.4%9,157BushRepublican67.6%19,081OtherAll other candidates0.0%0
R+35.1- Lead
- 9,924
- Total
- 28,238
- vs nation
- R+32.7
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic38.3%8,244BushRepublican60.3%12,981OtherAll other candidates1.4%292
R+22.0- Lead
- 4,737
- Total
- 21,517
- vs nation
- R+22.5
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic39.6%7,749DoleRepublican48.0%9,392PerotReform12.1%2,357
R+8.4- Lead
- 1,643
- Total
- 19,558
- vs nation
- R+16.9
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+49.8MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 86,6092024 5-year
- Median household income
- $81,2072024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 66.7%2024 5-year
- Black
- 3.4%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 8.8%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+45.5 in 1932MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+52.0 in 2016MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Rogers County, OK · twin score 90.0
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 60.2%38,648 participants ÷ 64,231 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +14.2 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- -0.6 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 46.0%–47.6%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 31,579 | 55,586 | 56.8% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 26,138 | 57,039 | 45.8% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 35,436 | 59,236 | 59.8% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 27,802 | 60,949 | 45.6% | C/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 38,648 | 64,231 | 60.2% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 154/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
71 precincts · 38,501 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -730306730306 | 472 | 1,537 | 32 | 2,041 | 23.1% | 75.3% | R+52.2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -730104730104 | 674 | 1,288 | 42 | 2,004 | 33.6% | 64.3% | R+30.6 |
| Precinct -730304730304 | 503 | 1,438 | 40 | 1,981 | 25.4% | 72.6% | R+47.2 |
| Precinct -730206730206 | 553 | 1,305 | 36 | 1,894 | 29.2% | 68.9% | R+39.7 |
| Precinct -730207730207 | 455 | 1,401 | 30 | 1,886 | 24.1% | 74.3% | R+50.2 |
| Precinct -730106730106 | 551 | 1,073 | 34 | 1,658 | 33.2% | 64.7% | R+31.5 |
| Precinct -730307730307 | 310 | 1,271 | 24 | 1,605 | 19.3% | 79.2% | R+59.9 |
| Precinct -730312730312 | 293 | 1,270 | 23 | 1,586 | 18.5% | 80.1% | R+61.6 |
| Precinct -730308730308 | 315 | 1,239 | 21 | 1,575 | 20.0% | 78.7% | R+58.7 |
| Precinct -730103730103 | 475 | 989 | 39 | 1,503 | 31.6% | 65.8% | R+34.2 |
| Precinct -730202730202 | 337 | 1,122 | 28 | 1,487 | 22.7% | 75.5% | R+52.8 |
| Precinct -730109730109 | 281 | 1,138 | 27 | 1,446 | 19.4% | 78.7% | R+59.3 |
| Precinct -730108730108 | 318 | 1,034 | 26 | 1,378 | 23.1% | 75.0% | R+52.0 |
| Precinct -730110730110 | 297 | 1,054 | 21 | 1,372 | 21.6% | 76.8% | R+55.2 |
| Precinct -730302730302 | 415 | 906 | 19 | 1,340 | 31.0% | 67.6% | R+36.6 |
| Precinct -730107730107 | 415 | 878 | 35 | 1,328 | 31.3% | 66.1% | R+34.9 |
| Precinct -730201730201 | 327 | 946 | 29 | 1,302 | 25.1% | 72.7% | R+47.5 |
| Precinct -730305730305 | 301 | 917 | 27 | 1,245 | 24.2% | 73.7% | R+49.5 |
| Precinct -730203730203 | 210 | 957 | 17 | 1,184 | 17.7% | 80.8% | R+63.1 |
| Precinct -730303730303 | 295 | 789 | 14 | 1,098 | 26.9% | 71.9% | R+45.0 |
| Precinct -730205730205 | 222 | 770 | 15 | 1,007 | 22.0% | 76.5% | R+54.4 |
| Precinct -730102730102 | 191 | 807 | 8 | 1,006 | 19.0% | 80.2% | R+61.2 |
| Precinct -730210730210 | 203 | 718 | 20 | 941 | 21.6% | 76.3% | R+54.7 |
| Precinct -730309730309 | 177 | 710 | 19 | 906 | 19.5% | 78.4% | R+58.8 |
| Precinct -730310730310 | 134 | 688 | 8 | 830 | 16.1% | 82.9% | R+66.7 |
| Precinct -730101730101 | 228 | 572 | 15 | 815 | 28.0% | 70.2% | R+42.2 |
| Precinct -730204730204 | 129 | 645 | 9 | 783 | 16.5% | 82.4% | R+65.9 |
| Precinct -730209730209 | 131 | 584 | 16 | 731 | 17.9% | 79.9% | R+62.0 |
| Precinct -730208730208 | 118 | 441 | 10 | 569 | 20.7% | 77.5% | R+56.8 |
| Voting District 11040_40145110 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 11140_40145111 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 11240_40145112 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 11340_40145113 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 11440_40145114 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 11540_40145115 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 11640_40145116 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 11740_40145117 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 11840_40145118 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 11940_40145119 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 12040_40145120 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 12140_40145121 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 12240_40145122 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 12340_40145123 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 12440_40145124 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 24140_40145241 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 24240_40145242 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 24340_40145243 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 24440_40145244 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 24540_40145245 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 24640_40145246 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 24740_40145247 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 24840_40145248 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 24940_40145249 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 25040_40145250 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 25140_40145251 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 25240_40145252 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 25340_40145253 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 25440_40145254 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 25540_40145255 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 37140_40145371 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 37240_40145372 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 37340_40145373 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 37440_40145374 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 37540_40145375 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 37640_40145376 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 37840_40145378 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 37940_40145379 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 38040_40145380 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 38240_40145382 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 38340_40145383 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 38440_40145384 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1908–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1908 | −28.2% |
| 1912 | +19.5% |
| 1916 | +13.9% |
| 1920 | −1.9% |
| 1924 | +8.7% |
| 1928 | −21.8% |
| 1932 | +45.5% |
| 1936 | +16.8% |
| 1940 | −22.3% |
| 1944 | −18.7% |
| 1948 | +11.9% |
| 1952 | −5.6% |
| 1956 | −16.3% |
| 1960 | −13.7% |
| 1964 | +16.4% |
| 1968 | −13.2% |
| 1972 | −47.3% |
| 1976 | +7.3% |
| 1980 | −25.4% |
| 1984 | −40.5% |
| 1988 | −16.0% |
| 1992 | −9.3% |
| 1996 | −8.4% |
| 2000 | −22.0% |
| 2004 | −35.1% |
| 2008 | −41.8% |
| 2012 | −45.7% |
| 2016 | −52.0% |
| 2020 | −50.1% |
| 2024 | −49.8% |
DemocraticRepublican
Federal and statewide elections · 1 House · 38 Senate · 4 Senate special · 12 governor
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | R | 0.0%0 | 100.0%6 | 6 |
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Party registration · 2026R+43.5
Presidential vote · 2024R+49.8
Registration leans Republican; the presidential vote runs 6.3 points more Democratic.
54,839 registered voters · 2026
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+1,761 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net +16,294 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $66,293 in average income, against $80,646 for residents who stayed — 18% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+21.7 on average — 28 points more Democratic-leaning than Wagoner County, OK itself (R+49.8).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Tulsa County, OK1,721R+15.2
- Muskogee County, OK177R+37.6
- Rogers County, OK169R+55.0
- Cherokee County, OK50R+32.6
- Oklahoma County, OK47R+1.7
- Creek County, OK44R+55.7
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Tulsa County, OK1,391
- Rogers County, OK172
- Muskogee County, OK168
- Creek County, OK75
- Cherokee County, OK64
- Mayes County, OK58
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +346 |
| 2012 | +638 |
| 2013 | +370 |
| 2014 | −223 |
| 2015 | +768 |
| 2016 | +616 |
| 2017 | +1,054 |
| 2018 | +883 |
| 2019 | +976 |
| 2021 | +2,948 |
| 2022 | +2,305 |
| 2023 | +2,317 |
| 2024 | +1,535 |
| 2025 | +1,761 |
Wagoner County sits on Tulsa's southeastern edge and has urbanized steadily over the past two decades, drawing commuter families whose arrival has reinforced rather than moderated its reliably wide Republican margins.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 45.5 points in 1932 and a Republican high of 52.0 points in 2016. The 2024 margin was 49.8 points.
A population of 86,609, a 67% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $81,207 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Rogers County and Matanuska-Susitna Borough.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Rogers County
Oklahoma
90.0twin score
elasticity2008–2012 trajectory12-yr trend≠ % unaffiliated
Matanuska-Susitna Borough
Alaska
89.8twin score
elasticity2008–2016 trajectory≠ 2000 margin
Saline County
Arkansas
86.7twin score
2008–2012 trajectory12-yr trend% Catholic≠ elasticity
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Wagoner County, Oklahoma. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/40145/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Cities & towns in Wagoner County
Oklahoma at the ballot boxAll elections →
Frequently asked questions
How did Wagoner County, Oklahoma vote in 2024?
In 2024, Wagoner County, Oklahoma voted Republican by 49.8 points (R+49.8), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 38,501 votes cast, 9,330 went Democratic and 28,487 went Republican.
When did Wagoner County, Oklahoma last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Wagoner County, Oklahoma voted Democratic was 1976.
How many people live in Wagoner County, Oklahoma?
Wagoner County, Oklahoma has a population of 86,609 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Wagoner County, Oklahoma?
Median household income in Wagoner County, Oklahoma is $81,207 — above the national median of $80,734. The Oklahoma state median is $65,039.
What is the political history of Wagoner County, Oklahoma?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Wagoner County, Oklahoma from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 8 went Democratic and 22 went Republican.