| Year | Won | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | R | 1,289 | 5,860 | 7,256 | |
| 2020 | R | 1,387 | 5,585 | 7,108 | |
| 2016 | R | 1,382 | 4,787 | 6,513 | |
| 2012 | R | 2,127 | 4,381 | 6,508 | |
| 2008 | R | 2,052 | 4,638 | 6,690 | |
| 2004 | R | 2,562 | 4,971 | 7,533 | |
| 2000 | R | 2,361 | 3,503 | 5,977 | |
| 1996 | R | 2,792 | 2,956 | 6,521 | |
| 1992 | R | 2,645 | 2,994 | 6,583 | |
| 1988 | R | 2,624 | 3,558 | 6,240 | |
| 1984 | R | 2,266 | 4,423 | 6,745 | |
| 1980 | R | 2,761 | 3,429 | 6,341 | |
| 1976 | D | 3,183 | 3,013 | 6,259 | |
| 1972 | R | 1,601 | 4,720 | 6,455 | |
| 1968 | R | 1,549 | 2,877 | 5,426 | |
| 1964 | D | 3,003 | 2,859 | 5,862 | |
| 1960 | R | 1,903 | 3,655 | 5,558 | |
| 1956 | R | 2,418 | 3,152 | 5,570 | |
| 1952 | R | 2,725 | 3,037 | 5,762 | |
| 1948 | D | 3,067 | 2,407 | 5,474 | |
| 1944 | R | 2,760 | 2,792 | 5,564 | |
| 1940 | R | 3,203 | 3,275 | 6,484 | |
| 1936 | D | 3,257 | 2,699 | 5,972 | |
| 1932 | D | 3,812 | 1,941 | 5,753 | |
| 1928 | R | 1,944 | 2,867 | 4,831 | |
| 1924 | R | 1,942 | 2,317 | 4,488 | |
| 1920 | R | 1,559 | 2,181 | 3,761 | |
| 1916 | D | 1,190 | 1,010 | 2,421 | |
| 1912 | D | 916 | 850 | 1,924 | |
| 1908 | D | 825 | 780 | 1,632 | |
| 1904 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1900 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1896 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1892 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1888 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1884 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1880 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1876 | — | — | — | — |
Adair County's population is majority Native American by enrollment, anchored by Cherokee Nation communities, yet it has shifted toward Republican margins exceeding 60 points in recent presidential cycles — a pattern that defies older assumptions about tribal-county voting.
The Democratic margin in Adair County peaked at thirty-three points in 1932. By 1980 the county had flipped, voting Republican for the first time in many years. The 2024 margin was sixty-three points, the most Republican-leaning result in the county's modern history.
The economic context is the key. Adair County's median household income of $48,041 sits well below state and national norms, and 22% of residents live below the federal poverty line. The shift here is part of a broader realignment of working-class places across the country. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Lamar County and Prentiss County.