Participation measured against the same-year citizen voting-age population. Audited cycles count total general-election participants — ballots or participating voters, not presidential candidate votes. Cycles before 2016 predate that series and are derived from the certified presidential returns instead; they are marked everywhere they appear and are excluded from the figures below.
2008–20246 cycles · 4 audited
2024 turnout
96.5%9,063 participants ÷ 9,393 CVAP
2016→2018 drop-off
+10.5 ptsVolatile
Drop-off vs state
+0.6 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
Participation by cycle
Presidential Midterm Derived, pre-2016
0%20%40%60%80%100%
76.9%
72.1%
200820122016201820222024
Select a presidential cycle to show it on the map and results ledger above.
Cycle
Participants
CVAP
Turnout
Series
Quality
9,063
9,393 ± 395
96.5%
Audited
E/A
2022Mid
6,078
8,430 ± 414
72.1%
Audited
E/A
2018Mid
4,792
6,228 ± 222
76.9%
Audited
E/A
5,320
6,085 ± 208
87.4%
Audited
E/A
4,942
5,931
83.3%
Derived
—
4,819
5,216
92.4%
Derived
—
Sources and methods
Audited cycles (2016, 2018, 2022, 2024) count total general-election participants against the same-year CVAP special tabulation, each cell carrying its own numerator and denominator quality grade. Derived cycles (2008, 2012) come from the certified presidential returns on this page over the ACS 5-year CVAP series, so they measure presidential votes cast rather than ballots — a floor on participation. Where a derived cycle predates the ACS its denominator is extrapolated rather than read, and says so on its own line below. They are shown for the longer arc and are excluded from the drop-off, excess-drop-off, and 2026 scenario figures above.
2024: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 323/229.
2022: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 322/184.
2018: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 320/139.
2016: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 319/133.
2012 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
2008 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
presidential history
Party record book
Lake Elmo, MN · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1996–2024 · 7 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Kamala Harris2024
51.7%
4,659 votes · D+5.4
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · 51.3%
Republican
George W. Bush2004
55.5%
2,543 votes · R+12.3
Runner-up · Mitt Romney, 2012 · 54.0%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Kamala Harris2024
4,659votes
51.7% of the vote · D+5.4
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · 3,960 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
4,171votes
46.3% of the vote · D+5.4
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 3,617 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Kamala Harris2024
+6.9pts D vs U.S.
Place D+5.4 · U.S. R+1.5
Runner-up · Bill Clinton, 1996 · +0.8 pts
Republican
Mitt Romney2012
+13.9pts R vs U.S.
Place R+10.1 · U.S. D+3.9
Runner-up · John McCain, 2008 · +12.0 pts
U.S. House elections · 2 House
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Lake Elmo · which candidate this place backed in each party’s presidential nominating contest, cycle by cycle. A primary is a contest inside one party, so it has no Democratic–Republican margin and is not part of the general-election record above.
Akashic reports votes cast, not delegates awarded. The two can disagree: Clinton led the 2008 national primary popular vote by less than half a point and did not win the nomination.
Primary returns are published at county grain. The figures below are Washington County, Minnesota, the county containing Lake Elmo — Lake Elmo’s own primary vote sits inside those totals and is not separately reported.
Presidential nominating contests in Lake Elmo, by party and cycle.
○no contest record — Akashic holds no result for that party and cycle here. It is not a claim that no contest was held. Telling apart a contest that was cancelled, one that went uncontested, and one simply not yet ingested needs a nominating-contest calendar, which is a separate ingest from results and does not exist yet.
Republican presidential primaries are not yet ingested — the Republican series runs from 1856 and is in scope. The row is kept so its absence is visible: a Democratic-only panel would otherwise read as though no one else held a contest.
Akashic carries 10 states for 2012 and 3 states for 2024. Cycles in which an incumbent president seeks renomination are thin by nature — few states run a contested primary — so a sparse column is politics, not a hole in the record.
County returns carry a leader and a lead over the runner-up, and nothing more. The full candidate field with vote shares is published at state grain — follow a cycle above to the state contest for it.
Lake Elmo has roughly tripled in population since 2000 as Twin Cities sprawl pushed into Washington County, shifting its electorate toward the college-educated suburban profile that has redrawn competitive margins across the metro's eastern fringe.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 9.3 points in 1996 and a Republican high of 12.3 points in 2004. Between 2020 and 2024 the city moved 1.0 points toward the Democratic candidate; the 2024 margin was 5.4 points.
A population of 13,140, a 85% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $153,669 describe the city. The city's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Orono and Minnetrista.
Akashic
Political twins — cities
The cities whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
In 2024, Lake Elmo, Minnesota voted Democratic by 5.4 points (D+5.4), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 9,017 votes cast, 4,659 went Democratic and 4,171 went Republican.
When did Lake Elmo, Minnesota last vote Republican?
The most recent presidential election in which Lake Elmo, Minnesota voted Republican was 2016.
How many people live in Lake Elmo, Minnesota?
Lake Elmo, Minnesota has a population of 13,140 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Lake Elmo, Minnesota?
Median household income in Lake Elmo, Minnesota is $153,669 — above the national median of $80,734. The Minnesota state median is $89,062.
What is the political history of Lake Elmo, Minnesota?
Akashic tracks 7 presidential elections in Lake Elmo, Minnesota from 1996 to 2024. Of those, 3 went Democratic and 4 went Republican.
