- Lead
- 12,454
- Total
- 60,150
- vs nation
- R+19.2
- Turnout
- 70.7%
Warren County, NJ
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
2024 turnout 70.7% of 85,778 citizens 18+
- Lead
- 9,868
- Total
- 60,325
- vs nation
- R+20.8
- Turnout
- 75.3%
- Lead
- 12,577
- Total
- 49,683
- vs nation
- R+27.4
- Turnout
- 62.9%
- Lead
- 6,999
- Total
- 45,415
- vs nation
- R+19.3
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 6,872
- Total
- 48,939
- vs nation
- R+21.3
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 11,498
- Total
- 48,208
- vs nation
- R+21.4
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 5,629
- Total
- 40,801
- vs nation
- R+14.3
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 2,355
- Total
- 37,701
- vs nation
- R+14.8
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+20.7MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 110,8492024 5-year
- Median household income
- $100,8692024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 74.6%2024 5-year
- Black
- 5.6%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 13.0%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+38.5 in 1912MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+46.6 in 1928MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Sussex County, NJ · twin score 96.0
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 70.7%60,628 participants ÷ 85,778 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +29.0 ptsPresidential-dependent
- Drop-off versus state
- -3.8 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 41.7%–50.5%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 50,412 | 80,096 | 62.9% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 41,575 | 80,643 | 51.6% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 61,482 | 81,678 | 75.3% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 39,310 | 84,921 | 46.3% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 60,628 | 85,778 | 70.7% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
86 precincts · 62,164 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -Allamuchy Township Ward 00 District 02Allamuchy Township Ward 00 District 02 | 492 | 557 | 18 | 1,067 | 46.1% | 52.2% | R+6.1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -Hardwick Township Ward 00 District 01Hardwick Township Ward 00 District 01 | 351 | 690 | 17 | 1,058 | 33.2% | 65.2% | R+32.0 |
| Precinct -Knowlton Township Ward 00 District 01Knowlton Township Ward 00 District 01 | 337 | 688 | 18 | 1,043 | 32.3% | 66.0% | R+33.7 |
| Precinct -Mansfield Township Ward 00 District 06Mansfield Township Ward 00 District 06 | 504 | 509 | 30 | 1,043 | 48.3% | 48.8% | R+0.5 |
| Precinct -Greenwich Township Ward 00 District 04Greenwich Township Ward 00 District 04 | 549 | 459 | 19 | 1,027 | 53.5% | 44.7% | D+8.8 |
| Precinct -Liberty Township Ward 00 District 02Liberty Township Ward 00 District 02 | 323 | 672 | 14 | 1,009 | 32.0% | 66.6% | R+34.6 |
| Precinct -Oxford Township Ward 00 District 01Oxford Township Ward 00 District 01 | 336 | 647 | 21 | 1,004 | 33.5% | 64.4% | R+31.0 |
| Precinct -Harmony Township Ward 00 District 02Harmony Township Ward 00 District 02 | 259 | 710 | 12 | 981 | 26.4% | 72.4% | R+46.0 |
| Precinct -Washington Borough Ward 00 District 02Washington Borough Ward 00 District 02 | 458 | 483 | 23 | 964 | 47.5% | 50.1% | R+2.6 |
| Precinct -Independence Township Ward 00 District 02Independence Township Ward 00 District 02 | 396 | 489 | 37 | 922 | 43.0% | 53.0% | R+10.1 |
| Precinct -Phillipsburg Town Ward 01 District 01Phillipsburg Town Ward 01 District 01 | 474 | 429 | 16 | 919 | 51.6% | 46.7% | D+4.9 |
| Precinct -Washington Borough Ward 00 District 03Washington Borough Ward 00 District 03 | 422 | 469 | 26 | 917 | 46.0% | 51.1% | R+5.1 |
| Precinct -Independence Township Ward 00 District 01Independence Township Ward 00 District 01 | 339 | 553 | 16 | 908 | 37.3% | 60.9% | R+23.6 |
| Precinct -Washington Borough Ward 00 District 01Washington Borough Ward 00 District 01 | 345 | 526 | 21 | 892 | 38.7% | 59.0% | R+20.3 |
| Precinct -Phillipsburg Town Ward 04 District 01Phillipsburg Town Ward 04 District 01 | 371 | 502 | 15 | 888 | 41.8% | 56.5% | R+14.8 |
| Precinct -White Township Ward 00 District 02White Township Ward 00 District 02 | 298 | 564 | 9 | 871 | 34.2% | 64.8% | R+30.5 |
| Precinct -Washington Township Ward 00 District 03Washington Township Ward 00 District 03 | 350 | 495 | 22 | 867 | 40.4% | 57.1% | R+16.7 |
| Precinct -Lopatcong Township Ward 00 District 07Lopatcong Township Ward 00 District 07 | 359 | 484 | 19 | 862 | 41.6% | 56.1% | R+14.5 |
| Precinct -Mansfield Township Ward 00 District 02Mansfield Township Ward 00 District 02 | 337 | 500 | 14 | 851 | 39.6% | 58.8% | R+19.2 |
| Precinct -Allamuchy Township Ward 00 District 03Allamuchy Township Ward 00 District 03 | 327 | 487 | 23 | 837 | 39.1% | 58.2% | R+19.1 |
| Precinct -Lopatcong Township Ward 00 District 05Lopatcong Township Ward 00 District 05 | 336 | 481 | 19 | 836 | 40.2% | 57.5% | R+17.3 |
| Precinct -Hackettstown Town Ward 00 District 06Hackettstown Town Ward 00 District 06 | 388 | 416 | 25 | 829 | 46.8% | 50.2% | R+3.4 |
| Precinct -Hackettstown Town Ward 00 District 01Hackettstown Town Ward 00 District 01 | 355 | 458 | 15 | 828 | 42.9% | 55.3% | R+12.4 |
| Precinct -Independence Township Ward 00 District 03Independence Township Ward 00 District 03 | 310 | 492 | 17 | 819 | 37.9% | 60.1% | R+22.2 |
| Precinct -Allamuchy Township Ward 00 District 01Allamuchy Township Ward 00 District 01 | 352 | 444 | 15 | 811 | 43.4% | 54.7% | R+11.3 |
| Precinct -Lopatcong Township Ward 00 District 01Lopatcong Township Ward 00 District 01 | 332 | 462 | 17 | 811 | 40.9% | 57.0% | R+16.0 |
| Precinct -Greenwich Township Ward 00 District 02Greenwich Township Ward 00 District 02 | 308 | 488 | 13 | 809 | 38.1% | 60.3% | R+22.2 |
| Precinct -Allamuchy Township Ward 00 District 04Allamuchy Township Ward 00 District 04 | 255 | 537 | 15 | 807 | 31.6% | 66.5% | R+34.9 |
| Precinct -Independence Township Ward 00 District 04Independence Township Ward 00 District 04 | 288 | 498 | 15 | 801 | 36.0% | 62.2% | R+26.2 |
| Precinct -Blairstown Township Ward 00 District 04Blairstown Township Ward 00 District 04 | 259 | 526 | 13 | 798 | 32.5% | 65.9% | R+33.5 |
| Precinct -Lopatcong Township Ward 00 District 03Lopatcong Township Ward 00 District 03 | 330 | 451 | 15 | 796 | 41.5% | 56.7% | R+15.2 |
| Precinct -Blairstown Township Ward 00 District 05Blairstown Township Ward 00 District 05 | 274 | 508 | 11 | 793 | 34.6% | 64.1% | R+29.5 |
| Precinct -Belvidere Town Ward 00 District 02Belvidere Town Ward 00 District 02 | 270 | 496 | 14 | 780 | 34.6% | 63.6% | R+29.0 |
| Precinct -Greenwich Township Ward 00 District 03Greenwich Township Ward 00 District 03 | 319 | 434 | 14 | 767 | 41.6% | 56.6% | R+15.0 |
| Precinct -Blairstown Township Ward 00 District 01Blairstown Township Ward 00 District 01 | 342 | 404 | 18 | 764 | 44.8% | 52.9% | R+8.1 |
| Precinct -Hackettstown Town Ward 00 District 04Hackettstown Town Ward 00 District 04 | 344 | 391 | 23 | 758 | 45.4% | 51.6% | R+6.2 |
| Precinct -Knowlton Township Ward 00 District 02Knowlton Township Ward 00 District 02 | 223 | 524 | 11 | 758 | 29.4% | 69.1% | R+39.7 |
| Precinct -Liberty Township Ward 00 District 01Liberty Township Ward 00 District 01 | 215 | 518 | 16 | 749 | 28.7% | 69.2% | R+40.5 |
| Precinct -Lopatcong Township Ward 00 District 02Lopatcong Township Ward 00 District 02 | 305 | 426 | 15 | 746 | 40.9% | 57.1% | R+16.2 |
| Precinct -Phillipsburg Town Ward 03 District 01Phillipsburg Town Ward 03 District 01 | 371 | 355 | 9 | 735 | 50.5% | 48.3% | D+2.2 |
| Precinct -Franklin Township Ward 00 District 02Franklin Township Ward 00 District 02 | 0 | 0 | 730 | 730 | 0.0% | 0.0% | Exact tie |
| Precinct -Alpha Borough Ward 00 District 01Alpha Borough Ward 00 District 01 | 289 | 426 | 13 | 728 | 39.7% | 58.5% | R+18.8 |
| Precinct -Washington Township Ward 00 District 05Washington Township Ward 00 District 05 | 292 | 426 | 9 | 727 | 40.2% | 58.6% | R+18.4 |
| Precinct -Washington Borough Ward 00 District 04Washington Borough Ward 00 District 04 | 294 | 404 | 22 | 720 | 40.8% | 56.1% | R+15.3 |
| Precinct -Belvidere Town Ward 00 District 01Belvidere Town Ward 00 District 01 | 273 | 422 | 22 | 717 | 38.1% | 58.9% | R+20.8 |
| Precinct -Lopatcong Township Ward 00 District 04Lopatcong Township Ward 00 District 04 | 344 | 349 | 17 | 710 | 48.5% | 49.2% | R+0.7 |
| Precinct -Greenwich Township Ward 00 District 01Greenwich Township Ward 00 District 01 | 248 | 438 | 20 | 706 | 35.1% | 62.0% | R+26.9 |
| Precinct -Frelinghuysen Township Ward 00 District 02Frelinghuysen Township Ward 00 District 02 | 227 | 459 | 13 | 699 | 32.5% | 65.7% | R+33.2 |
| Precinct -Blairstown Township Ward 00 District 02Blairstown Township Ward 00 District 02 | 245 | 438 | 15 | 698 | 35.1% | 62.8% | R+27.7 |
| Precinct -Blairstown Township Ward 00 District 03Blairstown Township Ward 00 District 03 | 168 | 519 | 8 | 695 | 24.2% | 74.7% | R+50.5 |
| Precinct -Frelinghuysen Township Ward 00 District 01Frelinghuysen Township Ward 00 District 01 | 241 | 437 | 15 | 693 | 34.8% | 63.1% | R+28.3 |
| Precinct -Harmony Township Ward 00 District 01Harmony Township Ward 00 District 01 | 200 | 462 | 21 | 683 | 29.3% | 67.6% | R+38.4 |
| Precinct -Mansfield Township Ward 00 District 04Mansfield Township Ward 00 District 04 | 236 | 407 | 12 | 655 | 36.0% | 62.1% | R+26.1 |
| Precinct -Phillipsburg Town Ward 06 District 01Phillipsburg Town Ward 06 District 01 | 327 | 303 | 20 | 650 | 50.3% | 46.6% | D+3.7 |
| Precinct -Hackettstown Town Ward 00 District 07Hackettstown Town Ward 00 District 07 | 265 | 367 | 14 | 646 | 41.0% | 56.8% | R+15.8 |
| Precinct -Lopatcong Township Ward 00 District 06Lopatcong Township Ward 00 District 06 | 310 | 308 | 14 | 632 | 49.1% | 48.7% | D+0.3 |
| Precinct -Franklin Township Ward 00 District 01Franklin Township Ward 00 District 01 | 0 | 0 | 621 | 621 | 0.0% | 0.0% | Exact tie |
| Precinct -Hope Township Ward 00 District 02Hope Township Ward 00 District 02 | 186 | 424 | 11 | 621 | 30.0% | 68.3% | R+38.3 |
| Precinct -White Township Ward 00 District 05White Township Ward 00 District 05 | 170 | 434 | 11 | 615 | 27.6% | 70.6% | R+42.9 |
| Precinct -Phillipsburg Town Ward 02 District 01Phillipsburg Town Ward 02 District 01 | 332 | 270 | 8 | 610 | 54.4% | 44.3% | D+10.2 |
| Precinct -Washington Township Ward 00 District 06Washington Township Ward 00 District 06 | 188 | 413 | 9 | 610 | 30.8% | 67.7% | R+36.9 |
| Precinct -Hackettstown Town Ward 00 District 05Hackettstown Town Ward 00 District 05 | 235 | 361 | 13 | 609 | 38.6% | 59.3% | R+20.7 |
| Precinct -Mansfield Township Ward 00 District 01Mansfield Township Ward 00 District 01 | 181 | 410 | 18 | 609 | 29.7% | 67.3% | R+37.6 |
| Precinct -Washington Township Ward 00 District 02Washington Township Ward 00 District 02 | 201 | 387 | 11 | 599 | 33.6% | 64.6% | R+31.1 |
| Precinct -Hackettstown Town Ward 00 District 03Hackettstown Town Ward 00 District 03 | 255 | 324 | 14 | 593 | 43.0% | 54.6% | R+11.6 |
| Precinct -Alpha Borough Ward 00 District 02Alpha Borough Ward 00 District 02 | 236 | 340 | 15 | 591 | 39.9% | 57.5% | R+17.6 |
| Precinct -White Township Ward 00 District 03White Township Ward 00 District 03 | 170 | 411 | 7 | 588 | 28.9% | 69.9% | R+41.0 |
| Precinct -Mansfield Township Ward 00 District 03Mansfield Township Ward 00 District 03 | 178 | 392 | 10 | 580 | 30.7% | 67.6% | R+36.9 |
| Precinct -Hope Township Ward 00 District 01Hope Township Ward 00 District 01 | 209 | 355 | 15 | 579 | 36.1% | 61.3% | R+25.2 |
| Precinct -Pohatcong Township Ward 00 District 02Pohatcong Township Ward 00 District 02 | 192 | 361 | 10 | 563 | 34.1% | 64.1% | R+30.0 |
| Precinct -Phillipsburg Town Ward 07 District 01Phillipsburg Town Ward 07 District 01 | 231 | 318 | 12 | 561 | 41.2% | 56.7% | R+15.5 |
| Precinct -Mansfield Township Ward 00 District 05Mansfield Township Ward 00 District 05 | 197 | 346 | 14 | 557 | 35.4% | 62.1% | R+26.8 |
| Precinct -Washington Township Ward 00 District 04Washington Township Ward 00 District 04 | 171 | 375 | 9 | 555 | 30.8% | 67.6% | R+36.8 |
| Precinct -Phillipsburg Town Ward 05 District 01Phillipsburg Town Ward 05 District 01 | 264 | 260 | 12 | 536 | 49.3% | 48.5% | D+0.7 |
| Precinct -Washington Township Ward 00 District 01Washington Township Ward 00 District 01 | 190 | 327 | 10 | 527 | 36.1% | 62.0% | R+26.0 |
| Precinct -Washington Township Ward 00 District 07Washington Township Ward 00 District 07 | 213 | 309 | 4 | 526 | 40.5% | 58.7% | R+18.3 |
| Precinct -Phillipsburg Town Ward 07 District 02Phillipsburg Town Ward 07 District 02 | 243 | 270 | 10 | 523 | 46.5% | 51.6% | R+5.2 |
| Precinct -White Township Ward 00 District 01White Township Ward 00 District 01 | 153 | 346 | 5 | 504 | 30.4% | 68.7% | R+38.3 |
| Precinct -Franklin Township Ward 00 District 03Franklin Township Ward 00 District 03 | 0 | 0 | 499 | 499 | 0.0% | 0.0% | Exact tie |
| Precinct -Hackettstown Town Ward 00 District 02Hackettstown Town Ward 00 District 02 | 231 | 260 | 7 | 498 | 46.4% | 52.2% | R+5.8 |
| Precinct -Pohatcong Township Ward 00 District 01Pohatcong Township Ward 00 District 01 | 182 | 303 | 11 | 496 | 36.7% | 61.1% | R+24.4 |
| Precinct -White Township Ward 00 District 04White Township Ward 00 District 04 | 125 | 352 | 6 | 483 | 25.9% | 72.9% | R+47.0 |
| Precinct -Pohatcong Township Ward 00 District 03Pohatcong Township Ward 00 District 03 | 137 | 296 | 11 | 444 | 30.9% | 66.7% | R+35.8 |
| Precinct -Pohatcong Township Ward 00 District 04Pohatcong Township Ward 00 District 04 | 162 | 261 | 14 | 437 | 37.1% | 59.7% | R+22.7 |
| Precinct -Phillipsburg Town Ward 05 District 02Phillipsburg Town Ward 05 District 02 | 209 | 218 | 8 | 435 | 48.0% | 50.1% | R+2.1 |
| Precinct -Oxford Township Ward 00 District 02Oxford Township Ward 00 District 02 | 115 | 262 | 4 | 381 | 30.2% | 68.8% | R+38.6 |
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | +22.6% |
| 1896 | +10.0% |
| 1900 | +17.5% |
| 1904 | +4.8% |
| 1908 | +17.7% |
| 1912 | +38.5% |
| 1916 | +22.9% |
| 1920 | −5.2% |
| 1924 | −27.9% |
| 1928 | −46.6% |
| 1932 | +6.7% |
| 1936 | +13.8% |
| 1940 | +1.5% |
| 1944 | −3.3% |
| 1948 | −2.8% |
| 1952 | −17.4% |
| 1956 | −33.9% |
| 1960 | −14.8% |
| 1964 | +38.2% |
| 1968 | −3.9% |
| 1972 | −31.5% |
| 1976 | −3.4% |
| 1980 | −20.9% |
| 1984 | −34.5% |
| 1988 | −29.9% |
| 1992 | −13.2% |
| 1996 | −6.2% |
| 2000 | −13.8% |
| 2004 | −23.9% |
| 2008 | −14.0% |
| 2012 | −15.4% |
| 2016 | −25.3% |
| 2020 | −16.4% |
| 2024 | −20.7% |
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Registration leans Republican; the presidential vote runs 6.0 points more Democratic.
91,830 registered voters · 2026
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+404 net domestic migration · 2025
Net −1,681 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $72,531 in average income, against $92,670 for residents who stayed — 22% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean D+5.9 on average — 27 points more Democratic-leaning than Warren County, NJ itself (R+20.7).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Morris County, NJ504R+2.7
- Hunterdon County, NJ291R+6.7
- Northampton County, PA215R+1.8
- Sussex County, NJ205R+24.9
- Essex County, NJ204D+44.9
- Middlesex County, NJ160D+8.0
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Northampton County, PA416
- Morris County, NJ338
- Hunterdon County, NJ231
- Sussex County, NJ148
- Somerset County, NJ95
- Lehigh County, PA93
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −600 |
| 2012 | −771 |
| 2013 | −744 |
| 2014 | −197 |
| 2015 | −284 |
| 2016 | −716 |
| 2017 | −354 |
| 2018 | −253 |
| 2019 | −323 |
| 2021 | +1,106 |
| 2022 | +408 |
| 2023 | +320 |
| 2024 | +323 |
| 2025 | +404 |
Warren County's rural and small-town character sets it apart from New Jersey's densely populated corridors, and its R+20.7 margin in 2024 makes it one of the state's sharpest counterweights to the Democratic-leaning northeast.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 38.5 points in 1912 and a Republican high of 46.6 points in 1928. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 4.3 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 20.7 points.
A population of 110,849, a 75% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $100,869 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Sussex County and Hunterdon County.
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Warren County, New Jersey. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/34041/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.