- Lead
- 2,118
- Total
- 4,449
- vs nation
- D+49.1
- Turnout
- 59.6%
Noxubee County, MS
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
2024 turnout 59.6% of 7,459 citizens 18+
- Lead
- 2,800
- Total
- 5,339
- vs nation
- D+48.0
- Turnout
- 68.2%
- Lead
- 3,147
- Total
- 5,574
- vs nation
- D+54.4
- Turnout
- 69.2%
- Lead
- 3,595
- Total
- 6,264
- vs nation
- D+53.5
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 3,505
- Total
- 6,589
- vs nation
- D+45.9
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 2,623
- Total
- 6,097
- vs nation
- D+45.5
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 1,853
- Total
- 4,954
- vs nation
- D+36.9
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 1,514
- Total
- 4,298
- vs nation
- D+26.7
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+47.6MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 10,0252024 5-year
- Median household income
- $33,8332024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 25.5%2024 5-year
- Black
- 73.6%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 0.4%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+97.9 in 1904MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+93.2 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Holmes County, MS · twin score 99.5
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 59.6%4,449 participants ÷ 7,459 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +28.5 ptsPresidential-dependent
- Drop-off versus state
- +0.6 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 31.1%–35.9%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 5,574 | 8,054 | 69.2% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 4,022 | 8,019 | 50.2% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 5,379 | 7,884 | 68.2% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 3,045 | 7,668 | 39.7% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 4,449 | 7,459 | 59.6% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
18 precincts · 4,449 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -Noxubee Civic CenterNoxubee Civic Center | 793 | 158 | 2 | 953 | 83.2% | 16.6% | D+66.6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -BrooksvilleBrooksville | 621 | 246 | 9 | 876 | 70.9% | 28.1% | D+42.8 |
| Precinct -Noxubee Alliance BldgNoxubee Alliance Bldg | 590 | 196 | 8 | 794 | 74.3% | 24.7% | D+49.6 |
| Precinct -ShuqualakShuqualak | 454 | 124 | 4 | 582 | 78.0% | 21.3% | D+56.7 |
| Precinct -Prairie PointPrairie Point | 337 | 108 | 2 | 447 | 75.4% | 24.2% | D+51.2 |
| Precinct -CliftonvilleCliftonville | 321 | 30 | 2 | 353 | 90.9% | 8.5% | D+82.4 |
| Precinct -MashulavilleMashulaville | 124 | 192 | 1 | 317 | 39.1% | 60.6% | R+21.5 |
| Precinct -SummervilleSummerville | 29 | 97 | 1 | 127 | 22.8% | 76.4% | R+53.5 |
| Brooksville Voting District28_28103501 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Central District 328_28103302 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Cliftonville Voting District28_28103101 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Earl Nash Gym Voting District28_28103202 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Mashulaville Voting District28_28103401 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Noxubee Cnty Vo-Tech Cen. Voting District28_28103104 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Prairie Point Voting District28_28103103 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Savannah Voting District28_28103203 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Shuqualak Voting District28_28103404 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Sommerville Voting District28_28103403 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | +90.9% |
| 1896 | +94.5% |
| 1900 | +95.8% |
| 1904 | +97.9% |
| 1908 | +96.1% |
| 1912 | +96.2% |
| 1916 | +96.6% |
| 1920 | +93.3% |
| 1924 | +91.3% |
| 1928 | +83.7% |
| 1932 | +92.2% |
| 1936 | +96.0% |
| 1940 | +91.5% |
| 1944 | +81.2% |
| 1948 | +5.1% |
| 1952 | −7.8% |
| 1956 | +32.8% |
| 1960 | −4.4% |
| 1964 | −93.2% |
| 1968 | +31.6% |
| 1972 | −35.1% |
| 1976 | +6.3% |
| 1980 | +26.4% |
| 1984 | +15.6% |
| 1988 | +18.4% |
| 1992 | +31.1% |
| 1996 | +35.2% |
| 2000 | +37.4% |
| 2004 | +43.0% |
| 2008 | +53.2% |
| 2012 | +57.4% |
| 2016 | +56.5% |
| 2020 | +52.4% |
| 2024 | +47.6% |
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | D | 73.6%3,572 | 26.4%1,282 | 4,854 |
| 2018 | D | 77.3%3,026 | 22.7%889 | 3,915 |
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 9,285 |
| 2018 | 8,945 |
| 2020 | 7,916 |
| 2022 | 7,762 |
| 2024 | 7,635 |
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
−85 net domestic migration · 2025
Net −1,982 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $34,674 in average income, against $43,161 for residents who stayed — 20% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+8.2 on average — 56 points more Republican-leaning than Noxubee County, MS itself (D+47.6).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Lowndes County, MS47R+8.2
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Lowndes County, MS59
- Oktibbeha County, MS30
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −216 |
| 2012 | −197 |
| 2013 | −167 |
| 2014 | −58 |
| 2015 | −157 |
| 2016 | −87 |
| 2017 | −204 |
| 2018 | −230 |
| 2019 | −173 |
| 2021 | −94 |
| 2022 | −120 |
| 2023 | −96 |
| 2024 | −98 |
| 2025 | −85 |
Noxubee County's electorate is roughly 70% Black, producing presidential margins that routinely exceed 40 points Democratic — an outlier even within a state where statewide results lean heavily Republican.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 97.9 points in 1904 and a Republican high of 93.2 points in 1964. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 4.8 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 47.6 points.
A population of 10,025, a 26% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $33,833 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Holmes County and Perry County.
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Noxubee County, Mississippi. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/28103/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.