- Lead
- 13,737
- Total
- 28,171
- vs nation
- R+47.3
- Turnout
- 57.8%
Lamar County, MS
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
2024 turnout 57.8% of 48,757 citizens 18+
- Lead
- 13,364
- Total
- 28,530
- vs nation
- R+51.3
- Turnout
- 62.6%
- Lead
- 13,561
- Total
- 24,592
- vs nation
- R+57.2
- Turnout
- 56.5%
- Lead
- 13,607
- Total
- 24,889
- vs nation
- R+58.5
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 13,338
- Total
- 23,910
- vs nation
- R+63.1
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 12,487
- Total
- 20,465
- vs nation
- R+58.6
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 9,317
- Total
- 16,602
- vs nation
- R+56.6
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 5,440
- Total
- 12,774
- vs nation
- R+51.1
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+48.8MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 65,7132024 5-year
- Median household income
- $70,9092024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 70.6%2024 5-year
- Black
- 21.7%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 3.7%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+93.7 in 1932MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+82.0 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Autauga County, AL · twin score 96.3
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 57.8%28,171 participants ÷ 48,757 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +26.3 ptsPresidential-dependent
- Drop-off versus state
- -1.6 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 31.5%–38.3%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 24,592 | 43,518 | 56.5% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 19,711 | 45,037 | 43.8% | C/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 29,036 | 46,412 | 62.6% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 17,428 | 48,035 | 36.3% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 28,171 | 48,757 | 57.8% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 150/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
45 precincts · 28,171 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -SumrallSumrall | 304 | 2,254 | 17 | 2,575 | 11.8% | 87.5% | R+75.7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -Lake SereneLake Serene | 556 | 1,908 | 38 | 2,502 | 22.2% | 76.3% | R+54.0 |
| Precinct -BrelandBreland | 964 | 1,054 | 42 | 2,060 | 46.8% | 51.2% | R+4.4 |
| Precinct -PurvisPurvis | 331 | 1,608 | 23 | 1,962 | 16.9% | 82.0% | R+65.1 |
| Precinct -RichburgRichburg | 603 | 1,122 | 27 | 1,752 | 34.4% | 64.0% | R+29.6 |
| Precinct -South PurvisSouth Purvis | 130 | 1,521 | 19 | 1,670 | 7.8% | 91.1% | R+83.3 |
| Precinct -Oak GroveOak Grove | 448 | 1,146 | 24 | 1,618 | 27.7% | 70.8% | R+43.1 |
| Precinct -MidwayMidway | 230 | 1,304 | 16 | 1,550 | 14.8% | 84.1% | R+69.3 |
| Precinct -OralOral | 160 | 1,137 | 11 | 1,308 | 12.2% | 86.9% | R+74.7 |
| Precinct -CanebrakeCanebrake | 127 | 1,047 | 11 | 1,185 | 10.7% | 88.4% | R+77.6 |
| Precinct -Lamar ParkLamar Park | 612 | 512 | 27 | 1,151 | 53.2% | 44.5% | D+8.7 |
| Precinct -Arnold LineArnold Line | 457 | 591 | 17 | 1,065 | 42.9% | 55.5% | R+12.6 |
| Precinct -Northeast LamarNortheast Lamar | 537 | 490 | 13 | 1,040 | 51.6% | 47.1% | D+4.5 |
| Precinct -LumbertonLumberton | 482 | 539 | 14 | 1,035 | 46.6% | 52.1% | R+5.5 |
| Precinct -Wesley ManorWesley Manor | 491 | 393 | 28 | 912 | 53.8% | 43.1% | D+10.7 |
| Precinct -GreenvilleGreenville | 35 | 816 | 4 | 855 | 4.1% | 95.4% | R+91.3 |
| Precinct -Rocky BranchRocky Branch | 99 | 514 | 5 | 618 | 16.0% | 83.2% | R+67.2 |
| Precinct -Pine GrovePine Grove | 35 | 546 | 1 | 582 | 6.0% | 93.8% | R+87.8 |
| Precinct -OkaholaOkahola | 150 | 406 | 8 | 564 | 26.6% | 72.0% | R+45.4 |
| Precinct -KingsmillKingsmill | 123 | 422 | 2 | 547 | 22.5% | 77.1% | R+54.7 |
| Precinct -Mill CreekMill Creek | 98 | 395 | 7 | 500 | 19.6% | 79.0% | R+59.4 |
| Precinct -OlohOloh | 33 | 404 | 1 | 438 | 7.5% | 92.2% | R+84.7 |
| Precinct -BaxtervilleBaxterville | 22 | 383 | 2 | 407 | 5.4% | 94.1% | R+88.7 |
| Precinct -YawnYawn | 11 | 263 | 1 | 275 | 4.0% | 95.6% | R+91.6 |
| Arnold Line Voting District28_28073008 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Baxterville Voting District28_28073019 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Bellevue Voting District28_28073006 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Breland Voting District28_28073002 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Greenville Voting District28_28073022 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Lake Serene Voting District28_28073007 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Lamar Park Voting District28_28073010 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Lumberton Voting District28_28073020 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Midway Voting District28_28073005 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| N E Lamar Voting District28_28073009 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Oak Grove Voting District28_28073013 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Okahola Voting District28_28073014 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Oloh Voting District28_28073004 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Pine Grove Voting District28_28073015 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Purvis Voting District28_28073016 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Richburg Voting District28_28073012 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Rocky Branch Voting District28_28073003 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| South Purvis Voting District28_28073017 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Sumrall Voting District28_28073001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Wesley Manor Voting District28_28073011 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Yawn Voting District28_28073021 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
Presidential margin, 1904–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1904 | +50.0% |
| 1908 | +61.5% |
| 1912 | +75.8% |
| 1916 | +74.3% |
| 1920 | +54.4% |
| 1924 | +78.5% |
| 1928 | +27.3% |
| 1932 | +93.7% |
| 1936 | +85.7% |
| 1940 | +90.9% |
| 1944 | +83.9% |
| 1948 | +3.7% |
| 1952 | +9.9% |
| 1956 | +21.9% |
| 1960 | +0.6% |
| 1964 | −82.0% |
| 1968 | −3.7% |
| 1972 | −79.7% |
| 1976 | −12.8% |
| 1980 | −28.0% |
| 1984 | −60.1% |
| 1988 | −56.3% |
| 1992 | −38.8% |
| 1996 | −42.6% |
| 2000 | −56.1% |
| 2004 | −61.0% |
| 2008 | −55.8% |
| 2012 | −54.7% |
| 2016 | −55.1% |
| 2020 | −46.8% |
| 2024 | −48.8% |
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 36,404 |
| 2018 | 38,119 |
| 2020 | 40,893 |
| 2022 | 39,385 |
| 2024 | 42,323 |
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+173 net domestic migration · 2025
Net +5,405 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $57,449 in average income, against $91,213 for residents who stayed — 37% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+23.8 on average — 25 points more Democratic-leaning than Lamar County, MS itself (R+48.8).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Forrest County, MS716R+17.9
- Jones County, MS100R+46.8
- Harrison County, MS80R+28.9
- Marion County, MS74R+41.6
- Covington County, MS62R+33.3
- Pearl River County, MS57R+66.7
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Forrest County, MS731
- Marion County, MS86
- Harrison County, MS84
- Jones County, MS78
- Covington County, MS58
- Pearl River County, MS58
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +879 |
| 2012 | +352 |
| 2013 | +647 |
| 2014 | +598 |
| 2015 | +419 |
| 2016 | +64 |
| 2017 | −211 |
| 2018 | +715 |
| 2019 | +317 |
| 2021 | +821 |
| 2022 | +171 |
| 2023 | +159 |
| 2024 | +301 |
| 2025 | +173 |
Lamar County sits in the Pine Belt region south of Hattiesburg and has posted some of the state's steepest population gains over the past decade, driven largely by suburban spillover — a growth pattern that has so far reinforced rather than diluted its wide Republican margins.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 93.7 points in 1932 and a Republican high of 82.0 points in 1964. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 1.9 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 48.8 points.
A population of 65,713, a 71% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $70,909 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Autauga County and Rankin County.
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Lamar County, Mississippi. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/28073/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.