- Lead
- 21,600
- Total
- 41,624
- vs nation
- R+50.4
- Turnout
- 60.2%
Elmore County, AL
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
2024 turnout 60.2% of 69,280 citizens 18+
- Lead
- 19,797
- Total
- 41,030
- vs nation
- R+52.7
- Turnout
- 65.9%
- Lead
- 19,191
- Total
- 36,815
- vs nation
- R+54.2
- Turnout
- 60.9%
- Lead
- 17,599
- Total
- 35,485
- vs nation
- R+53.5
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 17,476
- Total
- 34,315
- vs nation
- R+58.2
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 15,585
- Total
- 28,680
- vs nation
- R+51.9
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 10,125
- Total
- 23,804
- vs nation
- R+43.1
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 6,407
- Total
- 20,946
- vs nation
- R+39.1
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+51.9MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 89,5262024 5-year
- Median household income
- $78,2432024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 71.8%2024 5-year
- Black
- 21.1%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 3.4%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+99.6 in 1916MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+83.8 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Autauga County, AL · twin score 97.2
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 60.2%41,729 participants ÷ 69,280 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +26.8 ptsPresidential-dependent
- Drop-off versus state
- +1.2 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 33.4%–40.2%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 37,454 | 61,483 | 60.9% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 29,664 | 62,289 | 47.6% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 41,149 | 62,406 | 65.9% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 26,445 | 67,543 | 39.2% | C/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 41,729 | 69,280 | 60.2% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 154/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
29 precincts · 41,624 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -MULDER MEMORIALMULDER MEMORIAL | 1,240 | 3,725 | 69 | 5,034 | 24.6% | 74.0% | R+49.4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -RIVER REGION CHURCHRIVER REGION CHURCH | 874 | 2,349 | 40 | 3,263 | 26.8% | 72.0% | R+45.2 |
| Precinct -MILLBROOK CIVIC CTR_MILLBROOK CIVIC CTR_ | 1,230 | 1,616 | 32 | 2,878 | 42.7% | 56.2% | R+13.4 |
| Precinct -WETUMPKA CIVIC CTR_WETUMPKA CIVIC CTR_ | 518 | 1,990 | 46 | 2,554 | 20.3% | 77.9% | R+57.6 |
| Precinct -CAINS CHAPEL LIFE CTR_CAINS CHAPEL LIFE CTR_ | 205 | 2,254 | 30 | 2,489 | 8.2% | 90.6% | R+82.3 |
| Precinct -VICTORY BAPT_VICTORY BAPT_ | 688 | 1,501 | 26 | 2,215 | 31.1% | 67.8% | R+36.7 |
| Precinct -MLK CTR_MLK CTR_ | 835 | 1,243 | 31 | 2,109 | 39.6% | 58.9% | R+19.3 |
| Precinct -TRI-CITY BAPT_TRI-CITY BAPT_ | 637 | 1,325 | 25 | 1,987 | 32.1% | 66.7% | R+34.6 |
| Precinct -TALLAWEKA BAPT_TALLAWEKA BAPT_ | 322 | 1,381 | 15 | 1,718 | 18.7% | 80.4% | R+61.6 |
| Precinct -SANTUCK COMM_ CTR_SANTUCK COMM_ CTR_ | 295 | 1,084 | 15 | 1,394 | 21.2% | 77.8% | R+56.6 |
| Precinct -DEATSVILLE VFDDEATSVILLE VFD | 312 | 1,028 | 15 | 1,355 | 23.0% | 75.9% | R+52.8 |
| Precinct -WALLSBORO COMM_ CTR_WALLSBORO COMM_ CTR_ | 273 | 902 | 9 | 1,184 | 23.1% | 76.2% | R+53.1 |
| Precinct -ASBURY-KENT COMM_ CTR_ASBURY-KENT COMM_ CTR_ | 116 | 1,048 | 8 | 1,172 | 9.9% | 89.4% | R+79.5 |
| Precinct -NEW HOME BAPT_ WETUMPKANEW HOME BAPT_ WETUMPKA | 235 | 860 | 13 | 1,108 | 21.2% | 77.6% | R+56.4 |
| Precinct -NEW HOME BAPT_ TITUSNEW HOME BAPT_ TITUS | 79 | 987 | 6 | 1,072 | 7.4% | 92.1% | R+84.7 |
| Precinct -SEMAN CONG_ CHRISTIANSEMAN CONG_ CHRISTIAN | 82 | 934 | 7 | 1,023 | 8.0% | 91.3% | R+83.3 |
| Precinct -KOWALIGA FIRE DEPT_KOWALIGA FIRE DEPT_ | 131 | 866 | 10 | 1,007 | 13.0% | 86.0% | R+73.0 |
| Precinct -BLUE RIDGE BAPT_BLUE RIDGE BAPT_ | 185 | 789 | 14 | 988 | 18.7% | 79.9% | R+61.1 |
| Precinct -ECLECTIC METHODISTECLECTIC METHODIST | 214 | 742 | 7 | 963 | 22.2% | 77.1% | R+54.8 |
| Precinct -NEW HOPE BAPT_NEW HOPE BAPT_ | 46 | 879 | 6 | 931 | 4.9% | 94.4% | R+89.5 |
| Precinct -RUSHENVILLE BAPT_RUSHENVILLE BAPT_ | 65 | 823 | 13 | 901 | 7.2% | 91.3% | R+84.1 |
| Precinct -COOSADA TOWN HALLCOOSADA TOWN HALL | 295 | 448 | 6 | 749 | 39.4% | 59.8% | R+20.4 |
| Precinct -FRIENDSHIP COMM_ CTR_FRIENDSHIP COMM_ CTR_ | 160 | 507 | 6 | 673 | 23.8% | 75.3% | R+51.6 |
| Precinct -REDHILL COMM_ CTR_REDHILL COMM_ CTR_ | 84 | 544 | 3 | 631 | 13.3% | 86.2% | R+72.9 |
| Precinct -WEOKA COMM_ CTR_WEOKA COMM_ CTR_ | 52 | 569 | 2 | 623 | 8.3% | 91.3% | R+83.0 |
| Precinct -CRENSHAW PARKCRENSHAW PARK | 303 | 227 | 6 | 536 | 56.5% | 42.4% | D+14.2 |
| Precinct -ROCK SPRGS_ VOTINGROCK SPRGS_ VOTING | 123 | 401 | 8 | 532 | 23.1% | 75.4% | R+52.3 |
| Precinct -TITUS COMM_ CTR_TITUS COMM_ CTR_ | 74 | 336 | 6 | 416 | 17.8% | 80.8% | R+63.0 |
| Precinct -GOD'S CONGREGATIONALGOD'S CONGREGATIONAL | 101 | 16 | 2 | 119 | 84.9% | 13.4% | D+71.4 |
Presidential margin, 1876–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1876 | +5.7% |
| 1880 | +2.7% |
| 1884 | +11.8% |
| 1888 | +5.6% |
| 1892 | +30.5% |
| 1896 | +15.7% |
| 1900 | +22.0% |
| 1904 | +76.0% |
| 1908 | +75.3% |
| 1912 | +76.0% |
| 1916 | +99.6% |
| 1920 | +66.4% |
| 1924 | +65.2% |
| 1928 | −15.0% |
| 1932 | +83.5% |
| 1936 | +88.4% |
| 1940 | +93.3% |
| 1944 | +88.7% |
| 1948 | −6.5% |
| 1952 | +52.3% |
| 1956 | +32.1% |
| 1960 | +28.1% |
| 1964 | −83.8% |
| 1968 | +8.0% |
| 1972 | −62.0% |
| 1976 | +0.7% |
| 1980 | −18.0% |
| 1984 | −46.6% |
| 1988 | −40.9% |
| 1992 | −25.2% |
| 1996 | −30.6% |
| 2000 | −42.5% |
| 2004 | −54.3% |
| 2008 | −50.9% |
| 2012 | −49.6% |
| 2016 | −52.1% |
| 2020 | −48.3% |
| 2024 | −51.9% |
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2018 | 56,404 |
| 2020 | 60,857 |
| 2022 | 61,033 |
| 2024 | 63,576 |
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+566 net domestic migration · 2025
Net +3,522 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $61,080 in average income, against $77,970 for residents who stayed — 22% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+8.4 on average — 44 points more Democratic-leaning than Elmore County, AL itself (R+51.9).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Montgomery County, AL587D+30.6
- Autauga County, AL438R+46.1
- Tallapoosa County, AL117R+49.5
- Lee County, AL62R+27.7
- Jefferson County, AL55D+10.4
- Shelby County, AL48R+40.6
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Montgomery County, AL449
- Autauga County, AL443
- Tallapoosa County, AL120
- Lee County, AL78
- Jefferson County, AL72
- Shelby County, AL50
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +147 |
| 2012 | −157 |
| 2013 | +44 |
| 2014 | −230 |
| 2015 | +142 |
| 2016 | +168 |
| 2017 | +25 |
| 2018 | −504 |
| 2019 | +67 |
| 2021 | +986 |
| 2022 | +935 |
| 2023 | +827 |
| 2024 | +506 |
| 2025 | +566 |
Elmore sits along the I-65 corridor north of Montgomery and has absorbed steady suburban growth over the past two decades, producing a reliably wide Republican margin—over 50 points in 2024—even as its population diversifies.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 99.6 points in 1916 and a Republican high of 83.8 points in 1964. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 3.6 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 51.9 points.
A population of 89,526, a 72% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $78,243 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Autauga County and Rankin County.
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Elmore County, Alabama. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/01051/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.