HarrisDemocratic20.4%24,934TrumpRepublican78.4%95,798KennedyIndependent0.5%664
R+58.0- Lead
- 70,864
- Total
- 122,249
- vs nation
- R+56.5
- Turnout
- 64.4%
Akashiccounty
Baldwin County, AL
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
President results by year
2024 turnout 64.4% of 190,330 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic22.4%24,578TrumpRepublican76.2%83,544JorgensenLibertarian1.1%1,229
R+53.8- Lead
- 58,966
- Total
- 109,679
- vs nation
- R+58.2
- Turnout
- 65.6%
ClintonDemocratic19.7%18,458TrumpRepublican77.7%72,883JohnsonLibertarian2.6%2,464
R+58.0- Lead
- 54,425
- Total
- 93,805
- vs nation
- R+60.1
- Turnout
- 63.4%
ObamaDemocratic21.6%18,424RomneyRepublican77.4%66,016OtherAll other candidates1.1%898
R+55.8- Lead
- 47,592
- Total
- 85,338
- vs nation
- R+59.6
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic23.8%19,386McCainRepublican75.3%61,271OtherAll other candidates0.9%756
R+51.4- Lead
- 41,885
- Total
- 81,413
- vs nation
- R+58.7
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic22.5%15,599BushRepublican76.4%52,971OtherAll other candidates1.1%750
R+53.9- Lead
- 37,372
- Total
- 69,320
- vs nation
- R+51.5
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic24.8%13,997BushRepublican72.4%40,872NaderGreen1.8%1,033
R+47.6- Lead
- 26,875
- Total
- 56,480
- vs nation
- R+48.1
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic27.1%12,776DoleRepublican62.6%29,487PerotReform9.6%4,520
R+35.5- Lead
- 16,711
- Total
- 47,119
- vs nation
- R+44.0
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+58.0MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 246,9892024 5-year
- Median household income
- $78,7752024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 80.7%2024 5-year
- Black
- 8.0%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 5.8%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+64.2 in 1936MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+81.1 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Nassau County, FL · twin score 91.3
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 64.4%122,542 participants ÷ 190,330 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +23.8 ptsPresidential-dependent
- Drop-off versus state
- -1.7 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 40.6%–45.4%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 96,229 | 151,769 | 63.4% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 78,264 | 159,193 | 49.2% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 110,214 | 167,986 | 65.6% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 75,415 | 180,460 | 41.8% | C/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 122,542 | 190,330 | 64.4% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 154/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
59 precincts · 122,249 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -FAIRHOPE 3 CIRCLE CHFAIRHOPE 3 CIRCLE CH | 1,156 | 4,846 | 91 | 6,093 | 19.0% | 79.5% | R+60.6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -GULF SHORES CULTURALGULF SHORES CULTURAL | 963 | 4,253 | 66 | 5,282 | 18.2% | 80.5% | R+62.3 |
| Precinct -ORANGE BEACH EVENT CTRORANGE BEACH EVENT CTR | 660 | 4,402 | 37 | 5,099 | 12.9% | 86.3% | R+73.4 |
| Precinct -DAPHNE CIVIC CTRDAPHNE CIVIC CTR | 1,664 | 2,722 | 75 | 4,461 | 37.3% | 61.0% | R+23.7 |
| Precinct -EASTERN SHORE BAPTEASTERN SHORE BAPT | 1,337 | 2,864 | 58 | 4,259 | 31.4% | 67.2% | R+35.9 |
| Precinct -CH OF HIS PRESENCECH OF HIS PRESENCE | 691 | 2,935 | 56 | 3,682 | 18.8% | 79.7% | R+60.9 |
| Precinct -BAY MINETTE CITY HALL/CIVICBAY MINETTE CITY HALL/CIVIC | 755 | 2,894 | 24 | 3,673 | 20.6% | 78.8% | R+58.2 |
| Precinct -LILLIAN COMM_ CLUBLILLIAN COMM_ CLUB | 600 | 2,998 | 22 | 3,620 | 16.6% | 82.8% | R+66.2 |
| Precinct -ST_ MARGARET PARISHST_ MARGARET PARISH | 752 | 2,791 | 36 | 3,579 | 21.0% | 78.0% | R+57.0 |
| Precinct -PROVIDENCE UMCPROVIDENCE UMC | 735 | 2,666 | 49 | 3,450 | 21.3% | 77.3% | R+56.0 |
| Precinct -FAIRHOPE CIVIC CTRFAIRHOPE CIVIC CTR | 888 | 2,366 | 66 | 3,320 | 26.7% | 71.3% | R+44.5 |
| Precinct -FOLEY CIVIC CTRFOLEY CIVIC CTR | 823 | 2,462 | 35 | 3,320 | 24.8% | 74.2% | R+49.4 |
| Precinct -ST_ PAUL'S EPISCOPALST_ PAUL'S EPISCOPAL | 989 | 2,136 | 55 | 3,180 | 31.1% | 67.2% | R+36.1 |
| Precinct -ROBERTSDALE PZK HALLROBERTSDALE PZK HALL | 495 | 2,562 | 43 | 3,100 | 16.0% | 82.6% | R+66.7 |
| Precinct -SPANISH FORT COMM_ CTRSPANISH FORT COMM_ CTR | 650 | 2,376 | 68 | 3,094 | 21.0% | 76.8% | R+55.8 |
| Precinct -PT_CLEAR FAMILY MINISTRIESPT_CLEAR FAMILY MINISTRIES | 738 | 2,310 | 28 | 3,076 | 24.0% | 75.1% | R+51.1 |
| Precinct -SILVERHILL COMM_ CTRSILVERHILL COMM_ CTR | 481 | 2,515 | 23 | 3,019 | 15.9% | 83.3% | R+67.4 |
| Precinct -GULF SHORES CIVIC CTRGULF SHORES CIVIC CTR | 619 | 2,238 | 34 | 2,891 | 21.4% | 77.4% | R+56.0 |
| Precinct -GRAHAM CREEK CTRGRAHAM CREEK CTR | 439 | 2,360 | 26 | 2,825 | 15.5% | 83.5% | R+68.0 |
| Precinct -FAIRHOPE FIRST BAPTFAIRHOPE FIRST BAPT | 1,049 | 1,527 | 40 | 2,616 | 40.1% | 58.4% | R+18.3 |
| Precinct -MARLOW/FISH RIVER VFDMARLOW/FISH RIVER VFD | 446 | 2,040 | 30 | 2,516 | 17.7% | 81.1% | R+63.4 |
| Precinct -SPANISH TRAIL BAPT CHSPANISH TRAIL BAPT CH | 618 | 1,809 | 38 | 2,465 | 25.1% | 73.4% | R+48.3 |
| Precinct -ELBERTA CIVIC CTRELBERTA CIVIC CTR | 281 | 1,896 | 17 | 2,194 | 12.8% | 86.4% | R+73.6 |
| Precinct -SUMMERDALE COMM_ CTRSUMMERDALE COMM_ CTR | 307 | 1,850 | 24 | 2,181 | 14.1% | 84.8% | R+70.7 |
| Precinct -BON SECOUR FISHERMAN BAPTBON SECOUR FISHERMAN BAPT | 362 | 1,717 | 30 | 2,109 | 17.2% | 81.4% | R+64.2 |
| Precinct -MAG SPGS REDEMPTION CHMAG SPGS REDEMPTION CH | 488 | 1,598 | 23 | 2,109 | 23.1% | 75.8% | R+52.6 |
| Precinct -BELFOREST CHRISTIAN CHBELFOREST CHRISTIAN CH | 341 | 1,724 | 31 | 2,096 | 16.3% | 82.3% | R+66.0 |
| Precinct -BROMLEY EAST POINTE BAPTBROMLEY EAST POINTE BAPT | 421 | 1,609 | 36 | 2,066 | 20.4% | 77.9% | R+57.5 |
| Precinct -HOMESTEAD VILLAGEHOMESTEAD VILLAGE | 582 | 1,431 | 41 | 2,054 | 28.3% | 69.7% | R+41.3 |
| Precinct -FAIRHOPE MARS HILL CHFAIRHOPE MARS HILL CH | 273 | 1,686 | 33 | 1,992 | 13.7% | 84.6% | R+70.9 |
| Precinct -ROSINTON COMMUNITY CHROSINTON COMMUNITY CH | 183 | 1,781 | 16 | 1,980 | 9.2% | 89.9% | R+80.7 |
| Precinct -FOLEY UNITED METHODISTFOLEY UNITED METHODIST | 475 | 1,423 | 35 | 1,933 | 24.6% | 73.6% | R+49.0 |
| Precinct -FOLEY CALVARY CHAPELFOLEY CALVARY CHAPEL | 378 | 1,507 | 19 | 1,904 | 19.9% | 79.1% | R+59.3 |
| Precinct -BARNWELL VFDBARNWELL VFD | 252 | 1,536 | 31 | 1,819 | 13.9% | 84.4% | R+70.6 |
| Precinct -STAPLETON VFDSTAPLETON VFD | 132 | 1,401 | 17 | 1,550 | 8.5% | 90.4% | R+81.9 |
| Precinct -ST_ ANDREW BY THE SEAST_ ANDREW BY THE SEA | 318 | 1,073 | 15 | 1,406 | 22.6% | 76.3% | R+53.7 |
| Precinct -LOXLEY CIVIC CTRLOXLEY CIVIC CTR | 187 | 1,172 | 12 | 1,371 | 13.6% | 85.5% | R+71.8 |
| Precinct -TIMBERCREEK COMM_ CTRTIMBERCREEK COMM_ CTR | 209 | 1,043 | 31 | 1,283 | 16.3% | 81.3% | R+65.0 |
| Precinct -ELSANOR BETHAL BAPTELSANOR BETHAL BAPT | 125 | 1,097 | 6 | 1,228 | 10.2% | 89.3% | R+79.2 |
| Precinct -PINEGROVE VFD #1PINEGROVE VFD #1 | 163 | 919 | 8 | 1,090 | 15.0% | 84.3% | R+69.4 |
| Precinct -WHITE HOUSE FORK VFDWHITE HOUSE FORK VFD | 134 | 905 | 7 | 1,046 | 12.8% | 86.5% | R+73.7 |
| Precinct -STOCKTON CIVIC BLDGSTOCKTON CIVIC BLDG | 172 | 733 | 6 | 911 | 18.9% | 80.5% | R+61.6 |
| Precinct -HARRIETT COCKRELL CTRHARRIETT COCKRELL CTR | 103 | 762 | 11 | 876 | 11.8% | 87.0% | R+75.2 |
| Precinct -PERDIDO VFD #1PERDIDO VFD #1 | 56 | 773 | 4 | 833 | 6.7% | 92.8% | R+86.1 |
| Precinct -SPANISH FORT CH CHRISTSPANISH FORT CH CHRIST | 211 | 555 | 15 | 781 | 27.0% | 71.1% | R+44.0 |
| Precinct -SEMINOLE FIRE HOUSESEMINOLE FIRE HOUSE | 69 | 693 | 8 | 770 | 9.0% | 90.0% | R+81.0 |
| Precinct -PERDIDO BEACH VFDPERDIDO BEACH VFD | 98 | 648 | 10 | 756 | 13.0% | 85.7% | R+72.8 |
| Precinct -RABUN FIRE HOUSERABUN FIRE HOUSE | 41 | 681 | 1 | 723 | 5.7% | 94.2% | R+88.5 |
| Precinct -ELLISVILLE COMM_ CTRELLISVILLE COMM_ CTR | 164 | 469 | 4 | 637 | 25.7% | 73.6% | R+47.9 |
| Precinct -JOSEPHINE FIRE DEPTJOSEPHINE FIRE DEPT | 75 | 543 | 5 | 623 | 12.0% | 87.2% | R+75.1 |
| Precinct -THE VINES MINISTRIESTHE VINES MINISTRIES | 40 | 558 | 1 | 599 | 6.7% | 93.2% | R+86.5 |
| Precinct -CROSSROADS VFDCROSSROADS VFD | 130 | 463 | 5 | 598 | 21.7% | 77.4% | R+55.7 |
| Precinct -FT MORGAN VFD #1FT MORGAN VFD #1 | 109 | 382 | 3 | 494 | 22.1% | 77.3% | R+55.3 |
| Precinct -GATESWOOD FIRE STATIONGATESWOOD FIRE STATION | 24 | 397 | 4 | 425 | 5.6% | 93.4% | R+87.8 |
| Precinct -DOUGLASVILLE BOYKINDOUGLASVILLE BOYKIN | 337 | 65 | 1 | 403 | 83.6% | 16.1% | D+67.5 |
| Precinct -LOTTIE FIRE DEPTLOTTIE FIRE DEPT | 19 | 248 | 4 | 271 | 7.0% | 91.5% | R+84.5 |
| Precinct -CLR SPRNGS FELLOWSHIPCLR SPRNGS FELLOWSHIP | 6 | 194 | 3 | 203 | 3.0% | 95.6% | R+92.6 |
| Precinct -LITTLE RIVER SAIL CTRLITTLE RIVER SAIL CTR | 35 | 154 | 0 | 189 | 18.5% | 81.5% | R+63.0 |
| Precinct -TENSAW VFDTENSAW VFD | 86 | 40 | 0 | 126 | 68.3% | 31.7% | D+36.5 |
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1876–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1876 | +8.8% |
| 1880 | +7.2% |
| 1884 | +5.0% |
| 1888 | +13.9% |
| 1892 | +38.4% |
| 1896 | +27.3% |
| 1900 | +5.2% |
| 1904 | +53.4% |
| 1908 | +51.6% |
| 1912 | +63.3% |
| 1916 | +48.2% |
| 1920 | +34.8% |
| 1924 | +24.0% |
| 1928 | −2.6% |
| 1932 | +55.9% |
| 1936 | +64.2% |
| 1940 | +59.0% |
| 1944 | +47.9% |
| 1948 | −22.3% |
| 1952 | +3.1% |
| 1956 | −4.9% |
| 1960 | +7.9% |
| 1964 | −81.1% |
| 1968 | −1.8% |
| 1972 | −66.3% |
| 1976 | −17.7% |
| 1980 | −36.0% |
| 1984 | −53.5% |
| 1988 | −46.8% |
| 1992 | −30.3% |
| 1996 | −35.5% |
| 2000 | −47.6% |
| 2004 | −53.9% |
| 2008 | −51.4% |
| 2012 | −55.8% |
| 2016 | −58.0% |
| 2020 | −53.8% |
| 2024 | −58.0% |
DemocraticRepublican
Federal and statewide elections · 2 House · 36 Senate · 4 Senate special · 12 governor
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
Registered voters
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2018 | 155,127 |
| 2020 | 176,668 |
| 2022 | 189,028 |
| 2024 | 207,668 |
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+6,012 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net +69,664 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $84,825 in average income, against $95,129 for residents who stayed — 11% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+14.5 on average — 44 points more Democratic-leaning than Baldwin County, AL itself (R+58.0).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Mobile County, AL1,002R+16.4
- Escambia County, FL438R+19.5
- Jefferson County, AL202D+10.4
- Shelby County, AL117R+40.6
- Escambia County, AL99R+46.3
- Santa Rosa County, FL90R+50.9
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Mobile County, AL842
- Escambia County, FL370
- Jefferson County, AL147
- Madison County, AL108
- Escambia County, AL91
- Shelby County, AL82
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +2,899 |
| 2012 | +3,055 |
| 2013 | +4,176 |
| 2014 | +3,864 |
| 2015 | +3,433 |
| 2016 | +4,188 |
| 2017 | +4,619 |
| 2018 | +5,224 |
| 2019 | +5,297 |
| 2021 | +7,039 |
| 2022 | +6,880 |
| 2023 | +6,581 |
| 2024 | +6,397 |
| 2025 | +6,012 |
Baldwin County's Gulf Coast growth has drawn retirees and transplants without softening its Republican lean — the 2024 presidential margin of R+58 ranks among the widest in Alabama.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 64.2 points in 1936 and a Republican high of 81.1 points in 1964. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 4.2 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 58.0 points.
A population of 246,989, a 81% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $78,775 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Nassau County and Hood County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Nassau County
Florida
91.3twin score
2000–2012 trajectory
Hood County
Texas
90.9twin score
2000–2012 trajectory≠ American ancestry
Dawson County
Georgia
89.0twin score
2000–2012 trajectory≠ population scale
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Baldwin County, Alabama. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/01003/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Alabama at the ballot boxAll elections →
Frequently asked questions
How did Baldwin County, Alabama vote in 2024?
In 2024, Baldwin County, Alabama voted Republican by 58.0 points (R+58.0), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 122,249 votes cast, 24,934 went Democratic and 95,798 went Republican.
When did Baldwin County, Alabama last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Baldwin County, Alabama voted Democratic was 1960.
How many people live in Baldwin County, Alabama?
Baldwin County, Alabama has a population of 246,989 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Baldwin County, Alabama?
Median household income in Baldwin County, Alabama is $78,775 — below the national median of $80,734. The Alabama state median is $63,999.
What is the political history of Baldwin County, Alabama?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Baldwin County, Alabama from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 19 went Democratic and 17 went Republican.