- Lead
- 3,802
- Total
- 13,509
- vs nation
- R+26.7
- Turnout
- 80.9%
Wabasha County, MN
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
2024 turnout 80.9% of 16,779 citizens 18+
- Lead
- 3,457
- Total
- 13,123
- vs nation
- R+30.8
- Turnout
- 78.7%
- Lead
- 3,123
- Total
- 11,832
- vs nation
- R+28.5
- Turnout
- 73.0%
- Lead
- 634
- Total
- 11,763
- vs nation
- R+9.2
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 289
- Total
- 11,893
- vs nation
- R+9.7
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 572
- Total
- 11,835
- vs nation
- R+2.4
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 723
- Total
- 10,531
- vs nation
- R+7.4
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 1,071
- Total
- 9,573
- vs nation
- D+2.7
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+28.1MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 21,5652024 5-year
- Median household income
- $82,0072024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 93.3%2024 5-year
- Black
- 0.4%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 3.4%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+31.8 in 1932MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+57.1 in 1920MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Waseca County, MN · twin score 88.4
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 80.9%13,582 participants ÷ 16,779 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +13.8 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- -6.2 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 67.2%–67.9%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 11,959 | 16,383 | 73.0% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 10,096 | 16,635 | 60.7% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 13,191 | 16,767 | 78.7% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 10,789 | 16,621 | 64.9% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 13,582 | 16,779 | 80.9% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
66 precincts · 13,509 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -LAKE CITY P-3LAKE CITY P-3 | 495 | 652 | 14 | 1,161 | 42.6% | 56.2% | R+13.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -GREENFIELD TWPGREENFIELD TWP | 358 | 636 | 10 | 1,004 | 35.7% | 63.3% | R+27.7 |
| Precinct -PLAINVIEW P-1PLAINVIEW P-1 | 280 | 662 | 30 | 972 | 28.8% | 68.1% | R+39.3 |
| Precinct -PLAINVIEW P-2PLAINVIEW P-2 | 293 | 579 | 25 | 897 | 32.7% | 64.5% | R+31.9 |
| Precinct -LAKE CITY P-1LAKE CITY P-1 | 378 | 431 | 12 | 821 | 46.0% | 52.5% | R+6.5 |
| Precinct -LAKE CITY P-2LAKE CITY P-2 | 341 | 391 | 11 | 743 | 45.9% | 52.6% | R+6.7 |
| Precinct -ELGIN CITYELGIN CITY | 191 | 475 | 13 | 679 | 28.1% | 70.0% | R+41.8 |
| Precinct -WABASHA W-2WABASHA W-2 | 262 | 343 | 16 | 621 | 42.2% | 55.2% | R+13.0 |
| Precinct -MAZEPPA CITYMAZEPPA CITY | 155 | 363 | 6 | 524 | 29.6% | 69.3% | R+39.7 |
| Precinct -MAZEPPA TWPMAZEPPA TWP | 147 | 347 | 7 | 501 | 29.3% | 69.3% | R+39.9 |
| Precinct -WABASHA W-3WABASHA W-3 | 214 | 262 | 20 | 496 | 43.1% | 52.8% | R+9.7 |
| Precinct -ZUMBRO TWPZUMBRO TWP | 133 | 332 | 7 | 472 | 28.2% | 70.3% | R+42.2 |
| Precinct -WABASHA W-1WABASHA W-1 | 243 | 211 | 16 | 470 | 51.7% | 44.9% | D+6.8 |
| Precinct -ELGIN TWPELGIN TWP | 144 | 282 | 9 | 435 | 33.1% | 64.8% | R+31.7 |
| Precinct -LAKE TWPLAKE TWP | 140 | 177 | 3 | 320 | 43.8% | 55.3% | R+11.6 |
| Precinct -GILLFORD TWPGILLFORD TWP | 65 | 231 | 4 | 300 | 21.7% | 77.0% | R+55.3 |
| Precinct -PLAINVIEW TWPPLAINVIEW TWP | 60 | 218 | 8 | 286 | 21.0% | 76.2% | R+55.2 |
| Precinct -KELLOGGKELLOGG | 87 | 195 | 3 | 285 | 30.5% | 68.4% | R+37.9 |
| Precinct -MOUNT PLEASANT TWPMOUNT PLEASANT TWP | 80 | 199 | 3 | 282 | 28.4% | 70.6% | R+42.2 |
| Precinct -PEPIN TWPPEPIN TWP | 138 | 142 | 2 | 282 | 48.9% | 50.4% | R+1.4 |
| Precinct -HIGHLAND TWPHIGHLAND TWP | 72 | 198 | 10 | 280 | 25.7% | 70.7% | R+45.0 |
| Precinct -CHESTER TWPCHESTER TWP | 58 | 207 | 6 | 271 | 21.4% | 76.4% | R+55.0 |
| Precinct -WEST ALBANY TWPWEST ALBANY TWP | 66 | 176 | 6 | 248 | 26.6% | 71.0% | R+44.4 |
| Precinct -OAKWOOD TWPOAKWOOD TWP | 61 | 175 | 7 | 243 | 25.1% | 72.0% | R+46.9 |
| Precinct -HYDE PARK TWPHYDE PARK TWP | 46 | 125 | 3 | 174 | 26.4% | 71.8% | R+45.4 |
| Precinct -GLASGOW TWPGLASGOW TWP | 45 | 112 | 4 | 161 | 28.0% | 69.6% | R+41.6 |
| Precinct -WATOPA TWPWATOPA TWP | 55 | 100 | 2 | 157 | 35.0% | 63.7% | R+28.7 |
| Precinct -MINNEISKA TWPMINNEISKA TWP | 43 | 82 | 2 | 127 | 33.9% | 64.6% | R+30.7 |
| Precinct -ZUMBRO FALLSZUMBRO FALLS | 25 | 69 | 5 | 99 | 25.3% | 69.7% | R+44.4 |
| Precinct -MILLVILLEMILLVILLE | 14 | 79 | 0 | 93 | 15.1% | 84.9% | R+69.9 |
| Precinct -HAMMONDHAMMOND | 15 | 33 | 0 | 48 | 31.3% | 68.8% | R+37.5 |
| Precinct -MINNEISKA CITYMINNEISKA CITY | 15 | 24 | 1 | 40 | 37.5% | 60.0% | R+22.5 |
| Precinct -BELLECHESTERBELLECHESTER | 2 | 15 | 0 | 17 | 11.8% | 88.2% | R+76.5 |
| Bellechester Voting District27_271570005 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Chester Twp. Voting District27_271570010 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Elgin City Voting District27_271570015 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Elgin Twp. Voting District27_271570020 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Gillford Twp. Voting District27_271570025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Glasgow Twp. Voting District27_271570030 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Greenfield Twp. Voting District27_271570035 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Hammond Voting District27_271570040 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Highland Twp. Voting District27_271570045 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Hyde Park Twp. Voting District27_271570050 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Kellogg Voting District27_271570055 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Lake City P-127_271570065 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Lake City P-227_271570070 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Lake City P-327_271570075 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Lake Twp. Voting District27_271570060 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Mazeppa City Voting District27_271570080 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Mazeppa Twp. Voting District27_271570085 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Millville Voting District27_271570090 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Minneiska City Voting District27_271570095 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Minneiska Twp. Voting District27_271570100 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Mount Pleasant Twp. Voting District27_271570105 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Oakwood Twp. Voting District27_271570110 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Pepin Twp. Voting District27_271570115 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Plainview P-127_271570120 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Plainview P-227_271570125 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Plainview Twp. Voting District27_271570130 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Wabasha W-127_271570140 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Wabasha W-227_271570145 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Wabasha W-327_271570150 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Watopa Twp. Voting District27_271570155 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| West Albany Twp. Voting District27_271570160 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Zumbro Falls Voting District27_271570170 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Zumbro Twp. Voting District27_271570165 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | +5.3% |
| 1896 | −20.9% |
| 1900 | −19.3% |
| 1904 | −35.2% |
| 1908 | −19.9% |
| 1912 | +18.3% |
| 1916 | −10.0% |
| 1920 | −57.1% |
| 1924 | −34.7% |
| 1928 | −12.1% |
| 1932 | +31.8% |
| 1936 | +19.0% |
| 1940 | −36.1% |
| 1944 | −25.7% |
| 1948 | +6.1% |
| 1952 | −39.6% |
| 1956 | −34.3% |
| 1960 | −11.4% |
| 1964 | +16.4% |
| 1968 | −8.0% |
| 1972 | −25.4% |
| 1976 | −2.2% |
| 1980 | −13.5% |
| 1984 | −15.4% |
| 1988 | −2.6% |
| 1992 | +3.3% |
| 1996 | +11.2% |
| 2000 | −6.9% |
| 2004 | −4.8% |
| 2008 | −2.4% |
| 2012 | −5.4% |
| 2016 | −26.4% |
| 2020 | −26.3% |
| 2024 | −28.1% |
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 13,902 |
| 2018 | 13,654 |
| 2020 | 14,883 |
| 2022 | 14,671 |
| 2024 | 15,414 |
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+13 net domestic migration · 2025
Net −371 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $62,182 in average income, against $81,461 for residents who stayed — 24% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean D+4.2 on average — 32 points more Democratic-leaning than Wabasha County, MN itself (R+28.1).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Olmsted County, MN155D+10.6
- Goodhue County, MN73R+16.4
- Winona County, MN29R+4.9
- Hennepin County, MN20D+42.4
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Olmsted County, MN129
- Goodhue County, MN95
- Winona County, MN33
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −144 |
| 2012 | −130 |
| 2013 | −21 |
| 2014 | −145 |
| 2015 | −97 |
| 2016 | −1 |
| 2017 | +87 |
| 2018 | 0 |
| 2019 | −72 |
| 2021 | +94 |
| 2022 | +130 |
| 2023 | +19 |
| 2024 | −104 |
| 2025 | +13 |
Wabasha hugs the Wisconsin border along the Mississippi bluffs, and its predominantly rural, non-college white electorate has shifted the county from a single-digit Republican lean to a 28-point margin over the past four presidential elections.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 31.8 points in 1932 and a Republican high of 57.1 points in 1920. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 1.8 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 28.1 points.
A population of 21,565, a 93% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $82,007 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Waseca County and Big Stone County.
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Wabasha County, Minnesota. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/27157/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.