- Lead
- 2,597
- Total
- 5,031
- vs nation
- R+50.1
- Turnout
- 75.1%
Marshall County, MN
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
2024 turnout 75.1% of 6,735 citizens 18+
- Lead
- 2,426
- Total
- 5,113
- vs nation
- R+51.9
- Turnout
- 71.8%
- Lead
- 1,983
- Total
- 4,817
- vs nation
- R+43.3
- Turnout
- 68.3%
- Lead
- 571
- Total
- 4,698
- vs nation
- R+16.0
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 26
- Total
- 4,739
- vs nation
- R+6.7
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 879
- Total
- 5,562
- vs nation
- R+13.3
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 1,002
- Total
- 5,199
- vs nation
- R+19.8
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 265
- Total
- 5,154
- vs nation
- R+3.4
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+51.6MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 8,9092024 5-year
- Median household income
- $72,5432024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 91.0%2024 5-year
- Black
- 0.4%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 4.8%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+42.3 in 1936MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+64.2 in 1904MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Pennington County, MN · twin score 88.7
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 75.1%5,061 participants ÷ 6,735 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +12.1 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- -7.9 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 63.1%–64.1%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 4,883 | 7,151 | 68.3% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 4,182 | 7,173 | 58.3% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 5,147 | 7,171 | 71.8% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 4,107 | 6,878 | 59.7% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 5,061 | 6,735 | 75.1% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
120 precincts · 5,031 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -WARRENWARREN | 201 | 613 | 12 | 826 | 24.3% | 74.2% | R+49.9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -ARGYLEARGYLE | 63 | 262 | 7 | 332 | 19.0% | 78.9% | R+59.9 |
| Precinct -STEPHENSTEPHEN | 92 | 210 | 5 | 307 | 30.0% | 68.4% | R+38.4 |
| Precinct -NEW SOLUM TWPNEW SOLUM TWP | 34 | 142 | 3 | 179 | 19.0% | 79.3% | R+60.3 |
| Precinct -NEWFOLDENNEWFOLDEN | 51 | 119 | 6 | 176 | 29.0% | 67.6% | R+38.6 |
| Precinct -EXCEL TWPEXCEL TWP | 46 | 124 | 5 | 175 | 26.3% | 70.9% | R+44.6 |
| Precinct -ALVARADOALVARADO | 34 | 122 | 2 | 158 | 21.5% | 77.2% | R+55.7 |
| Precinct -MIDDLE RIVERMIDDLE RIVER | 46 | 99 | 2 | 147 | 31.3% | 67.3% | R+36.1 |
| Precinct -MCCREA TWPMCCREA TWP | 24 | 122 | 0 | 146 | 16.4% | 83.6% | R+67.1 |
| Precinct -NEW FOLDEN TWPNEW FOLDEN TWP | 23 | 106 | 2 | 131 | 17.6% | 80.9% | R+63.4 |
| Precinct -SPRUCE VALLEY TWPSPRUCE VALLEY TWP | 26 | 97 | 3 | 126 | 20.6% | 77.0% | R+56.3 |
| Precinct -NEW MAINE TWPNEW MAINE TWP | 25 | 84 | 5 | 114 | 21.9% | 73.7% | R+51.8 |
| Precinct -GRYGLAGRYGLA | 35 | 71 | 3 | 109 | 32.1% | 65.1% | R+33.0 |
| Precinct -VIKING TWPVIKING TWP | 23 | 70 | 1 | 94 | 24.5% | 74.5% | R+50.0 |
| Precinct -OSLOOSLO | 28 | 59 | 0 | 87 | 32.2% | 67.8% | R+35.6 |
| Precinct -VEGA TWPVEGA TWP | 15 | 66 | 3 | 84 | 17.9% | 78.6% | R+60.7 |
| Precinct -VALLEY TWPVALLEY TWP | 30 | 50 | 2 | 82 | 36.6% | 61.0% | R+24.4 |
| Precinct -NELSON PARK TWPNELSON PARK TWP | 20 | 58 | 1 | 79 | 25.3% | 73.4% | R+48.1 |
| Precinct -COMSTOCK TWPCOMSTOCK TWP | 13 | 64 | 0 | 77 | 16.9% | 83.1% | R+66.2 |
| Precinct -HOLT TWPHOLT TWP | 9 | 66 | 1 | 76 | 11.8% | 86.8% | R+75.0 |
| Precinct -MARSH GROVE TWPMARSH GROVE TWP | 20 | 54 | 2 | 76 | 26.3% | 71.1% | R+44.7 |
| Precinct -ROLLIS TWPROLLIS TWP | 22 | 52 | 0 | 74 | 29.7% | 70.3% | R+40.5 |
| Precinct -WEST VALLEY TWPWEST VALLEY TWP | 14 | 59 | 1 | 74 | 18.9% | 79.7% | R+60.8 |
| Precinct -MOYLAN TWPMOYLAN TWP | 27 | 44 | 1 | 72 | 37.5% | 61.1% | R+23.6 |
| Precinct -OAK PARK TWPOAK PARK TWP | 15 | 57 | 0 | 72 | 20.8% | 79.2% | R+58.3 |
| Precinct -LINCOLN TWPLINCOLN TWP | 19 | 48 | 0 | 67 | 28.4% | 71.6% | R+43.3 |
| Precinct -WARRENTON TWPWARRENTON TWP | 5 | 55 | 1 | 61 | 8.2% | 90.2% | R+82.0 |
| Precinct -WRIGHT TWPWRIGHT TWP | 9 | 51 | 0 | 60 | 15.0% | 85.0% | R+70.0 |
| Precinct -AGDER TWPAGDER TWP | 7 | 51 | 0 | 58 | 12.1% | 87.9% | R+75.9 |
| Precinct -ALMA TWPALMA TWP | 6 | 46 | 0 | 52 | 11.5% | 88.5% | R+76.9 |
| Precinct -VIKINGVIKING | 11 | 40 | 1 | 52 | 21.2% | 76.9% | R+55.8 |
| Precinct -BLOOMER TWPBLOOMER TWP | 5 | 44 | 2 | 51 | 9.8% | 86.3% | R+76.5 |
| Precinct -MIDDLE RIVER TWPMIDDLE RIVER TWP | 7 | 41 | 1 | 49 | 14.3% | 83.7% | R+69.4 |
| Precinct -HOLTHOLT | 10 | 37 | 1 | 48 | 20.8% | 77.1% | R+56.3 |
| Precinct -CEDAR TWPCEDAR TWP | 11 | 34 | 1 | 46 | 23.9% | 73.9% | R+50.0 |
| Precinct -TAMARAC TWPTAMARAC TWP | 10 | 35 | 0 | 45 | 22.2% | 77.8% | R+55.6 |
| Precinct -WANGER TWPWANGER TWP | 13 | 31 | 0 | 44 | 29.5% | 70.5% | R+40.9 |
| Precinct -ECKVOLL TWPECKVOLL TWP | 14 | 29 | 0 | 43 | 32.6% | 67.4% | R+34.9 |
| Precinct -AUGSBURG TWPAUGSBURG TWP | 7 | 33 | 0 | 40 | 17.5% | 82.5% | R+65.0 |
| Precinct -STRANDQUISTSTRANDQUIST | 9 | 31 | 0 | 40 | 22.5% | 77.5% | R+55.0 |
| Precinct -HUNTLY TWPHUNTLY TWP | 11 | 28 | 0 | 39 | 28.2% | 71.8% | R+43.6 |
| Precinct -FOLDAHL TWPFOLDAHL TWP | 9 | 29 | 0 | 38 | 23.7% | 76.3% | R+52.6 |
| Precinct -GRAND PLAIN TWPGRAND PLAIN TWP | 6 | 26 | 1 | 33 | 18.2% | 78.8% | R+60.6 |
| Precinct -COMO TWPCOMO TWP | 9 | 19 | 0 | 28 | 32.1% | 67.9% | R+35.7 |
| Precinct -THIEF LAKE TWPTHIEF LAKE TWP | 15 | 12 | 0 | 27 | 55.6% | 44.4% | D+11.1 |
| Precinct -BIG WOODS TWPBIG WOODS TWP | 1 | 24 | 0 | 25 | 4.0% | 96.0% | R+92.0 |
| Precinct -ESPELIE TWPESPELIE TWP | 6 | 19 | 0 | 25 | 24.0% | 76.0% | R+52.0 |
| Precinct -VELDT TWPVELDT TWP | 6 | 18 | 0 | 24 | 25.0% | 75.0% | R+50.0 |
| Precinct -WHITEFORD TWPWHITEFORD TWP | 5 | 17 | 2 | 24 | 20.8% | 70.8% | R+50.0 |
| Precinct -BOXVILLE TWPBOXVILLE TWP | 7 | 16 | 0 | 23 | 30.4% | 69.6% | R+39.1 |
| Precinct -PARKER TWPPARKER TWP | 5 | 17 | 1 | 23 | 21.7% | 73.9% | R+52.2 |
| Precinct -EAST VALLEY TWPEAST VALLEY TWP | 4 | 16 | 0 | 20 | 20.0% | 80.0% | R+60.0 |
| Precinct -DONNELLY TWPDONNELLY TWP | 0 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 0.0% | 100.0% | R+100.0 |
| Precinct -LINSELL TWPLINSELL TWP | 8 | 6 | 0 | 14 | 57.1% | 42.9% | D+14.3 |
| Precinct -MOOSE RIVER TWPMOOSE RIVER TWP | 5 | 9 | 0 | 14 | 35.7% | 64.3% | R+28.6 |
| Precinct -SINNOTT TWPSINNOTT TWP | 0 | 12 | 2 | 14 | 0.0% | 85.7% | R+85.7 |
| Precinct -EAGLE POINT TWPEAGLE POINT TWP | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 0.0% | 100.0% | R+100.0 |
| Precinct -EAST PARK TWPEAST PARK TWP | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0.0% | 100.0% | R+100.0 |
| Precinct -FORK TWPFORK TWP | 1 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 20.0% | 80.0% | R+60.0 |
| Agder Twp. Voting District27_270890005 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Alma Twp. Voting District27_270890010 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Alvarado Voting District27_270890015 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Argyle Voting District27_270890020 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Augsburg Twp. Voting District27_270890025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Big Woods Twp. Voting District27_270890030 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Bloomer Twp. Voting District27_270890035 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Boxville Twp. Voting District27_270890040 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Cedar Twp. Voting District27_270890045 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Como Twp. Voting District27_270890050 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Comstock Twp. Voting District27_270890055 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Donnelly Twp. Voting District27_270890060 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Eagle Point Twp. Voting District27_270890065 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| East Park Twp. Voting District27_270890070 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| East Valley Twp. Voting District27_270890075 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Eckvoll Twp. Voting District27_270890080 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Espelie Twp. Voting District27_270890085 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Excel Twp. Voting District27_270890090 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Foldahl Twp. Voting District27_270890095 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Fork Twp. Voting District27_270890100 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Grand Plain Twp. Voting District27_270890105 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Grygla Voting District27_270890110 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Holt Twp. Voting District27_270890120 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Holt Voting District27_270890115 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Huntly Twp. Voting District27_270890125 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Lincoln Twp. Voting District27_270890130 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Linsell Twp. Voting District27_270890135 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Marsh Grove Twp. Voting District27_270890145 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| McCrea Twp. Voting District27_270890140 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Middle River Twp. Voting District27_270890155 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Middle River Voting District27_270890150 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Moose River Twp. Voting District27_270890160 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Moylan Twp. Voting District27_270890165 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Mud Lake Unorg. Voting District27_270890166 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Nelson Park Twp. Voting District27_270890170 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| New Folden Twp. Voting District27_270890180 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| New Maine Twp. Voting District27_270890185 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| New Solum Twp. Voting District27_270890190 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Newfolden Voting District27_270890175 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Oak Park Twp. Voting District27_270890195 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Oslo Voting District27_270890200 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Parker Twp. Voting District27_270890205 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Rollis Twp. Voting District27_270890210 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Sinnott Twp. Voting District27_270890215 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Spruce Valley Twp. Voting District27_270890220 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Stephen Voting District27_270890225 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Strandquist Voting District27_270890230 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Tamarac Twp. Voting District27_270890235 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Thief Lake Twp. Voting District27_270890240 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Valley Twp. Voting District27_270890245 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Vega Twp. Voting District27_270890250 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Veldt Twp. Voting District27_270890255 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Viking Twp. Voting District27_270890265 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Viking Voting District27_270890260 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Wanger Twp. Voting District27_270890270 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Warren W-127_270890275 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Warren W-227_270890280 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Warrenton Twp. Voting District27_270890285 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| West Valley Twp. Voting District27_270890290 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Whiteford Twp. Voting District27_270890295 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Wright Twp. Voting District27_270890300 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | −9.1% |
| 1896 | +0.9% |
| 1900 | −22.6% |
| 1904 | −64.2% |
| 1908 | −33.4% |
| 1912 | +8.1% |
| 1916 | +1.6% |
| 1920 | −61.3% |
| 1924 | −34.5% |
| 1928 | −25.3% |
| 1932 | +25.5% |
| 1936 | +42.3% |
| 1940 | +30.0% |
| 1944 | +30.3% |
| 1948 | +31.3% |
| 1952 | −5.7% |
| 1956 | +16.0% |
| 1960 | +11.1% |
| 1964 | +41.6% |
| 1968 | +13.3% |
| 1972 | −7.7% |
| 1976 | +17.6% |
| 1980 | −14.8% |
| 1984 | −11.7% |
| 1988 | +4.3% |
| 1992 | +3.0% |
| 1996 | +5.1% |
| 2000 | −19.3% |
| 2004 | −15.8% |
| 2008 | +0.5% |
| 2012 | −12.2% |
| 2016 | −41.2% |
| 2020 | −47.4% |
| 2024 | −51.6% |
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 5,627 |
| 2018 | 5,454 |
| 2020 | 5,810 |
| 2022 | 5,639 |
| 2024 | 5,895 |
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
−7 net domestic migration · 2025
Net −660 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $53,151 in average income, against $86,130 for residents who stayed — 38% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+26.2 on average — 25 points more Democratic-leaning than Marshall County, MN itself (R+51.6).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Pennington County, MN43R+31.4
- Grand Forks County, ND27R+18.0
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Pennington County, MN40
- Grand Forks County, ND33
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +8 |
| 2012 | −29 |
| 2013 | −63 |
| 2014 | −51 |
| 2015 | −41 |
| 2016 | −81 |
| 2017 | −46 |
| 2018 | −7 |
| 2019 | −69 |
| 2021 | −42 |
| 2022 | −115 |
| 2023 | −72 |
| 2024 | −45 |
| 2025 | −7 |
Marshall County, anchored by the Red River Valley's flat agricultural plains, has shifted toward lopsided Republican presidential margins over the past decade, with 2024's R+51.6 result reflecting the broader rural realignment across the Upper Midwest's farming communities.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 42.3 points in 1936 and a Republican high of 64.2 points in 1904. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 4.2 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 51.6 points.
A population of 8,909, a 91% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $72,543 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Pennington County and Polk County.
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Marshall County, Minnesota. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/27089/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.